Analisi macro giornaliere
US: rising consumer confidence but decreasing job openings
US: Wholesale inventories (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)
- Inventories have decreased over the month but inventories in the retail sector remained on a sustained rise, up by 0.8% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month.
US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Aug.): 5.2% y/y vs 5.1% expected (prior: 5.93% revised from 5.92%)
- Prices have declined over the month (-0.32% m/m after 0.04% m/m prior month). From the 20 cities under review, prices settled in a range of 0.7% y/y-8% y/y.
US: JOLTS Job Openings (Sept.): 7443k vs 8000k expected (prior: 7861k revised from 8040k)
- Momentum has decreased in jobs openings; the situation remained contrasted by sector: openings have increased for business services but decreased in trade-transport, education and health, leisure and also the public sector.
- Hirings have increased over the month (from 5435 k to 5558 k), with rises in trade-transport and health care.
- Separations have increased while quitters decreased over the month.
- Turnover ratio for jobs opening has decreased from 4.7 the prior month to 4.5.
- Labor markets continues to adjust progressively, even with volatile monthly data.
US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Oct.): 108.7 vs 99.5 expected (prior: 99.2 revised from 98.7)
- Sentiment has rebounded on current situation (index from 123.8 the prior month to 138) and also expectations (from 82.8 to 89.1).
- Opinions have improved on labor situation and regained about future economy and employment.
- Willingness to buy autos has increased, as well as for some major appliances, while it stayed stable on housing.
- 12- months inflation expectations have slightly increased from 5.2% y/y prior month to 5.3% (average measure).
Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Nov.): -18.9 vs -20.5 expected (prior: -21 revised from -21.2)
- Consumer sentiment has improved over the month; views on inflation and incomes have improved past months.
Sweden: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.4%)
- Sales were up by 2.7% y/y after 0.3% y/y the prior month.
Sweden: GDP (Q3-24): -0.1% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.8%)
- Contrary to consensus expectations, activity has fallen in a technical recession IN Q3, according to preliminary data.
- No details are available by sector; this should give fuel to the central bank to cut rates by 50 bp in its next meeting.
UK: M4 (Sept.): 3.5% y/y (prior: 1.7%)
- M4 was up by 0.6% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month; M4 lending was up by 2.4% y/y after 1.2% y/y prior month.
- Mortgage approvals were slightly more positive, up to GBP 65.6 bn after GBP 65 bn the prior month.
Brazil: Current account (Sept.): -6526 M$ vs -5000 M$ expected (prior: -6899 M$ revised from -6589 M$)
- Current account deficit has reduced from the prior month, but it remained higher than expected.
- Cumulative 12 months deficit reached 2.0% of GDP, but foreign direct investment reached 3.2% of GDP over the period.
US: Dallas Fed manufacturing in rebound; Spain strong retail sales
US: Fed Dallas manufacturing
- Business sentiment has recovered on higher production and shipments; views on new orders were less negative over the month. Pressures on prices have also eased over the month.
- The 6-month index has increased, driven by more positive outlook on production and orders.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (Sept.): 4.1% y/y vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.4% revised from 2.3%)
- Sales remained on a sustained trend over the past 3 months. Sales were up by 1% m/m and this strong momentum was broad based across sectors, except weak internet sales.
German IFO index and US consumer confidence inched higher in October
US: Durable goods orders (Sept Prel.): -0.8% m/m vs -1.0% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from 0.0%)
- Ex transportation: 0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)
- Durable goods orders fell less than expected but August growth was revised down.
- Encouragingly, ex-transport orders unexpectedly increased with August data revised slightly up.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct. F.): 70.5 vs 69 expected (prior: 70.1)
- Current conditions: 64.9 vs 62.6 expected (prior: 63.3)
- Expectations: 74.1 vs 73.0 expected (prior: 74.4)
- According to this poll, sentiment among consumers increased in October to a 6-month high.
- They become more upbeat about buying conditions, notably thanks to cheaper financing costs. In addition, expectations about incomes rose to the highest level since June and respondents were more optimistic about the job market.
- This suggests that consumer spending is likely to remain resilient by year-end.
Eurozone: M3 (Sept.): 3.2% y/y vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.9%)
- Private sector credit growth increased from 1.5% y/y to 1.6% in September, with household loans up 0.1pp to 0.7% y/y and loans to non-financial corporate (NFC) up 0.3pp to +1.1% y/y.
- However, sequential momentum in credit growth remained roughly flat.
- Overall, a positive report, which is consistent with the recent ECB bank lending survey.
Germany: IFO (Oct.): 86.5 vs 85.6 expected (prior: 85.4)
- Current assessment: 85.7 vs 84.4 expected (prior: 84.4)
- Expectations: 87.3 vs 86.9 expected (prior: 86.3)
- Echoing yesterday’s German PMI, the headline IFO inched higher, driven almost equally by increases in business expectations and current conditions.
- The improvement in sentiment was most significant in the services sector where the net balance of positive vs negative assessments is now back in positive territory.
- The IFO press release mentioned that capacity utilization fell further in manufacturing and that low order inflows remain a problem, but stated that "the German economy stopped the decline for the time being".
France: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 94 vs 95 expected (prior: 95)
- First deterioration since April, with households less optimistic about future living standards and more concerns about unemployment.
Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Oct.): 85.8 vs 87.0 expected (prior: 86.7)
- Sentiment in the manufacturing sector continued to trend downward to reach the lowest level since late 2020.
- The gauge on services also declined from September.
Italy: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 97.4 vs 98.5 expected (prior: 98.3)
- Consumers became less optimistic about the economic situation.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -21 vs -20 expected (prior: -20)
- Consumer confidence edged lower in October despite rising real wages. Political uncertainty and worries about the upcoming budget could be the explaining factor.
Business sentiment in manufacturing has improved in the US and Eurozone but eroded in the UK
US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.19): 227k vs 242k expected (prior: 242k revised from 241k)
- Continuing claims: 1897 k after 1869 k the prior week.
US: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 47.8 vs 47.5 expected (prior: 47.3)
- Business sentiment has regained from the prior month, but index remained below 50.
- Output has improved over the month as well as employment, but new orders remained weak.
US: Services PMI (Oct.): 55.3 vs 55 expected (prior: 55.2)
- Sentiment has marginally increased from the prior month; views on new business have improved on domestic demand while exports have weakened. Prices have shown less pressure.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 45.9 vs 45.1 expected (prior: 45)
- Preliminary business confidence has regained from the prior month as new orders have improved (index from 42.2 to 44.1).
- First estimates have pointed to diverging trend between Germany (index regaining from 40.6 prior month to 42.6) while it has marginally decreased in France (from 44.6 to 44.5) on weaker new orders.
- Employment has decreased sharply, and prices have eased. Exports remained depressed.
Eurozone: PMI Services (Oct.): 51.2 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.4)
- Business sentiment has eroded in the service sector, but the index remained above the 50 level.
- As seen in manufacturing, sentiment has improved in Germany (index up from 50.6 prior month to 51.4), while it has decreased in France (from 49.6 to 48.3).
- Employment remained stable but prices remained on the rise.
UK: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 50.3 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.5)
- First estimates have pointed to loss in momentum in industry; new orders index has passed below the 50 level over the month (from 51.7 the prior month to 48.9). Exports were weak.
- Business sentiment is impacted by tensions in global activity (US elections, Middle East) and ahead of the 2025 budget in the UK.
UK: PMI Services (Oct.): 51.8 vs 52.4 expected (prior: 52.4)
- Sentiment has decreased in services, but new orders remained at high levels (index at 51.4 after 54.4 the prior month).
- Employment has been reduced, while prices remained on the rise.
France: Business confidence (Oct.): 97 vs 98 expected (prior: 98)
- In manufacturing, sentiment has decreased from 99 tp 92; opinions have deteriorated on production and sharply on total orders.
- Separately, index for services has increased 99.2 the prior month to 100.8; the improvement came from higher expected future demand and higher future prices while views on employment have deteriorated.
US existing home sales on the fall
US: Existing home sales (Sept.): 3.84M vs 3.88M expected (prior: 3.88M revised from 3.86M)
- Sales have weakened over the month; sales of single-family houses were down just by 0.6% m/m while those of condominiums declined by 5.1% m/m.
- Inventories have regained, notably for condominiums.
- Average prices settled at 3% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month; changes were more pronounced for condos, which average prices declined from 3.5% y/y the prior month to 2.2% y/y, while prices of single-family houses remained up by 3% y/y.
Poland: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 5% as expected (prior: 5%)
- Unemployed has decreased by 2.7% m/m over the month but the unemployment ratio remained stable.
Turkey: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 80.6 (prior: 78.2)
- After a fall in Q3-24, consumer confidence has rebounded; sentiment has increased about financial situation, future economy, and higher willingness to buy durable goods.