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  • 14.10.2024

    The potential influence of US elections on markets

    As the US elections loom large on the horizon, investors are bracing for market turbulence.

  • 02.10.2024

    US debate drama drives investors to gold and hedge funds

    After a historic US pre-election debate, commentators agree Kamala Harris has profited, while Donald Trump’s ratings slipped, but how have markets responded?

  • 02.09.2024

    Could the Fed end quantitative tightening in the weeks ahead?

    The market turmoil of recent weeks has shifted the probability of a Fed rate cut dramatically from only several weeks ago. Indeed, whereas markets were previously cautious about a rate cut as early as September, by mid-August, markets began to price in an equal probability of a 25 bps rate cut as a 50 bps cut in September.

  • 27.05.2024

    How the US government might deleverage its economy

    US national government debt-to-GDP reached 120% in 2023, recapturing the level seen following years of wartime spending in 1945.

  • 25.04.2024

    Will the Fed continue to cut interest rates?

    Strong Q1 economic data from the US manufacturing, housing and employment sectors, combined with inflation of between 3.5–4% since mid-2023, have caused markets not to only price out the six rate cuts they had priced in up until the start of 2024, but, more recently, to also begin to question whether the Fed might forego rate cuts entirely in 2024.

  • 22.02.2024

    Gold prices should consolidate

    In January, gold traded in a tight range of between USD 2,000 and USD 2,050 per oz. This tight trading range reflected a generally subdued trading environment – three-month implied volatilities fell to levels of around 10% – which is a relatively low level of volatility for the yellow metal.

  • 31.01.2024

    Four reasons for the yen’s steady appreciation this year

    Coming into 2024, here at UBP we hold a constructive view on the JPY. We anticipate that it will continue to appreciate over the course of the year, and we envisage a USD/JPY downward move to levels of around 135 by year-end, with risk skewed to the downside of this level. This represents a decline of at least 6% from current levels. Our generally constructive stance on JPY exchange rates reflects several factors.

  • 26.01.2024

    A Glittering Outlook: Gold Promises to Shine in 2024

    2024 will be a strong year for gold. Our expectation of ongoing price increases for the yellow metal is driven by several factors, namely the global decline in inflation, weaker USD exchange rates, increasing concerns regarding US debt sustainability, central bank gold purchases, the resilience of gold trading, and ongoing geopolitical risks.

  • 26.01.2024

    “Budget deficits are growing even wider”

    Confirmation that inflation is falling around the world could be the best news we get in 2024.

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