Daily macro update

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (April Prel): 50.8 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 57.0)

• Current conditions: 56.5 vs 60.8 expected (prior: 63.8)
• Expectations: 47.2 vs 50.7 expected (prior: 52.6)
• According to this survey, consumer confidence fell more than expected to an almost 3-year low while inflation expectations surged to multi-decade highs: +4.4% over the next 5 to 10 years and +6.7% in the coming year.
• The expectations index fell to its weakest level since… 1980.
• The share of consumers expecting higher unemployment in the coming year rose to the highest since 2009 and consumer's outlook of the financial situation decreased to a record low.

US: PPI (March): -0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.0%)

• PPI y/y: 2.7% vs 3.3% expected (prior: 3.2%)
• Core PPI: -0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.1%); 3.3% y/y vs 3.6% expected (prior: 3.5%)
• The headline and core index came in well below expectations and the components relevant for core PCE were soft.
• This adds to evidence of muted inflation ahead of the tariffs implementation.

UK: Industrial production (Feb.): 1.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.9%)

• IP y/y: 0.1% vs -2.3% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -1.1%)
• Well above expectations, which can be partly explained by manufacturers building inventory in anticipation of US tariffs as UK goods exports to the US rose to the highest level since 2022 (+7% in February).

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (March): -34.8 vs -32.0 expected (prior: -33.6)

• Lowest level in 4 months.

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr.5): 223k as expected (prior: 219k)

• Continuing claims: 1850 k after 1893 k the prior week.

US: CPI (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.8% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y; core inflation has declined from 3.1% y/y to 2.8% y/y.
• By sector, prices remained sustained over the month on food (0.4% m/m after 0.2% m/m); eggs prices remained on sustained trend, up by 5.9% m/m after 10.4% m/m prior month.
• Energy prices were down by 2.4% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and gasoline prices down by 6.3% m/m (-1% m/m prior month).
• Good prices were down by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month); prices of apparels (0.4% m/m) and new cars (0.3% m/m) have increased further while used car prices were down (-0.7% m/m).
• Services have moderated (0.1% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month): prices have moderated for shelter (0.2% m/m) and decreased in transport (-1.4% m/m, thanks to falling airfares); prices of medical care have accelerated over the month.
• Inflation has come lower than expected and the yearly trend has declined in Q1 as expected; prices could turn more resilient in the next quarter and re-accelerate above 3% due the rise in tariffs.

Italy: Industrial production (Feb.): -0.9% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: 2.5% revised from 3.2%)

• Industrial activity has decreased on all sectors over the month except for the energy sector. The largest fall was seen in durable goods, down by 4.2% m/m after 5% m/m the prior month.

Norway: CPI (March): -0.7% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 1.4%)

• Prices have decreased for housing and household goods, while they sharply rebounded for clothes. Core CPI was up by 0.2% m/m after 1% m/m prior month.
• The yearly trend has declined from 3.6% y/y prior month to 2.6% y/y; core inflation remained on a 3.4% y/y trend.

Sweden: Industrial production (Feb.): -0.2% m/m (prior: -1% revised from -0.8%)

• Activity has regained in industry (0.4% m/m after -8.3% m/m prior month) but it has decreased in services (-1.3% m/m after 2.7% m/m prior month).

UK: RICS house price balance (March): 2% vs 8% expected (prior: 11%)

• Expectations have decreased in housing; over the month, opinions about sales, future demand and prices have sharply decreased.

Turkey: Industrial production (Feb.): -1.6% m/m (prior: -2.6% revised from -2.3%)

• Production has contracted further in manufacturing and mining sectors over the month; on the opposite, energy sector was up by 3.5% m/m over the month.

US: Wholesale inventories (Feb F): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• The final numbers for US wholesale inventories slightly disappointed. Meanwhile, the inventory-to-sales ratio decreased from 1.32 in January to 1.30 in February, indicating that sales are accelerating faster than inventories can keep up.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (March): 97.4 vs 99 expected (prior: 100.7)

• Business confidence among small and medium-sized firms has continued to fall.
• Views have sharply declined about future sales and decreased on hiring, prices, and optimism on economic situation. Capex has increased but compensations also as index of higher labor costs.
• On a more constructive note, the uncertainty index has slightly decreased after its large surge the prior month.