Daily macro update
Thursday, March 19
Central banks on hold, but a more hawkish stance from the BoE
US: Initial jobless claims (March 14): 205k vs 215k expected (prior: 213k)
- Continuing claims: 1857 k after 1847 k prior week.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (March): 18.1 vs 8 expected (prior: 16.3)
- Business sentiment has rebounded over the month.
- Sentiment has decreased on new orders but regained on shipments, delivery time, employment and on prices.
- The 6-month index has eroded from very high level (index at 40 after 42.8 prior month). Opinions decreased on new orders and prices but were firmer on shipments, employment, and capex.
US: New home sales (Jan.): 587k vs 722k expected (prior: 712k revised from 745k)
- Sales have decreased in all the 4 major districts. Inventories were on the rise and average prices were down by 5.9% m/m.
US: Wholesale inventories (Jan.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.2%)
- Inventories have increased for non-durable goods, autos, and computers; global sales were up by 0.5% m/m (1.3% m/m the prior month) and driven by autos and computers.
ECB meeting: no change in key rates as expected
- Communication was well balanced, pointing on that monetary policy is well positioned to face adverse shocks. The tone was more balanced than hawkish, after hawkish communication from several governors in the prior weeks.
- The communication insisted on the high level of uncertainties related to situation in the Middle East; the ECB expects higher energy prices and some rise in inflation and lower growth in the future. Uncertainty remained fueled by intensity, duration, and spillover effects of the conflict.
- Lagarde renewed that decision will be data dependent and taken meeting by meeting.
- The ECB has updated its base case scenario and will publish alternative scenarios based on oil prices and duration of the war.
- The central scenario has seen lower growth and higher inflation for 2026, already including some tensions in energy prices (11 March ref.): GDP was revised down for 2026 at 0.9% (from 1.2%) and for 2027 at 1.3% (from 1.4%); core inflation was revised up for 2026 from 2.2% to 2.3%, and for 2027 from 1.9% to 2.2%.
- Balance of risk has deteriorated on growth and risks have increased for inflation. The ECB will follow the risks from the war and second round effects on inflation expectations (firms and markets). The ECB fears economic agents to react this time as seen in 2022 and to raise selling prices and expectations in parallel with oil shock.
- The ECB has developed different scenarios about geopolitical situation and impacts on growth and inflation debated during the meeting (to be released after the meeting).
The Bank of England delivered a hawkish hold at its March meeting, warning it stands ready “to act as necessary” to keep inflation in check.
- The committee released no new forecasts, but its minutes offered an early take on the energy-price turmoil: it now expects March’s CPI to come in around 3.5%, up from February’s 3.0% projection.
- The committee also expects inflation to hover between 3% and 3.5% over the next couple of quarters.
- The decision was unanimous (9–0), wrong-footing a consensus that had anticipated a 7–2 split.
- Traders began to consider the consequences of the desire by the MPC to avoid the possibility of second-round inflation effects. Gilts sold off sharply, with the two-year yield rising as much as 37 basis points, while sterling money markets priced in 67 basis points of tightening in the policy rate.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jan.): 5.2% vs 5.3% expected (prior: 5.3%)
- Claimant count has increased from 4.3% to 4.4% over the month. Jobless claims have increased in Feb. from 4.7 k to 24.7 k. Employed has increased by 20 k after 6 k the prior month.
- Labor seemed to stabilize but the situation remained fragile, and risks are still pointing towards higher unemployment ratio in the next quarters.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Jan.): 3.9% y/y as expected (prior: 4.2%)
- Wage growth has slowed down further. The slowdown was broad based across sectors; in services, wage growth has slowed down to 4.1% y/y after 4.3% y/y prior month.
The SNB left key rates unchanged as expected at 0%
- The statement pointed on high level of uncertainties related to the Liddel East. The SNB has reaffirmed its willingness to intervene in the FX given the conflict.
- Inflation has been revised up for 2026 from 0.3% y/y to 0.5% y/y due to the expected rise in energy prices; the 2027 inflation has been revised lower, from 0.6 to 0.5%.
Switzerland: Trade balance (Feb.): 4.45 Bn CHF (prior: 3.46Bn)
- Real exports were down by 0.3% m/m after 7.2% m/m prior month; real imports were down by 5.1% m/m after 2.3% m/m the prior month.
Poland: Industrial production (Feb.): 2.7% m/m vs 2.5% expected (prior: -6%)
- Activity has rebounded in mining and manufacturing sector over the month.
- Yearly trend has rebounded up by 1.5% y/y after -1.5% y/y prior month.
Poland: PPI (Feb.): 0.1%m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.3%)
- Over the month, prices have regained for manufacturing but declined in mining and electricity.
- Yearly trend has increased from -2.6% y/y prior month to -2.3% y/y.
Wednesday, March 18
US PPI driven higher by food and energy prices
US: PPI (Feb.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Food and energy have driven PPI higher over the month.
- Food prices were up by 2.5% m/m (prices of eggs in strong rebound); energy prices were up by 2.3% m/m due to gas, gasoline and diesel fuel costs (conflict impact); this has also an impact on costs of truck transport in the monthly data.
- Good prices were up by 0.3% m/m and services up by 0.5% m/m.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.9% y/y prior month to a strong 3.4% y/y.
US: Factory orders (Jan.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.7%)
- Orders for capital goods non-defense and ex aircraft were up by 0.1% m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month.
- Orders for defense sectors were down over the month, but non-defense orders were up by 0.9% m/m.
- Shipments were up by 0.5% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and inventories remained on a regular trend up by 0.1% m/m.
Eurozone: CPI (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.6%)
- Final data pointed to slightly more moderate monthly rise in prices from the initial estimates, but still in a rebound from the prior month.
- Prices of services have regained over the month, up by 0.8% m/m after -0.4% m/m the prior month; services remained on high trend at 3.4% y/y.
- Good prices have also rebounded, up by 0.7% m/m (-2.4% m/m prior month) and up by 0.7% y/y.
- Energy prices were up by 0.6% m/m and food prices up by 0.3% m/m.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.7% y/y prior month to 1.9% y/y and core inflation from 2.2% y/y to 2.4% y/y. Food and services remained the main drivers of the yearly inflation.
Tuesday, March 17
A rebound in US pending home sales
US: Pending home sales (Feb.): 1.8% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: -1.0% revised from -0.8%)
- Y/y: -0.6% vs -4.5% expected (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.2%)
- First increase in 3 months as buyers took advantage of lower mortgage rates (lowest since 2022) and slower price increases.
- However, mortgage rates have risen quite sharply since early March…
Germany: Zew (March): -0.5 vs 39.2 expected (prior: 58.3)
- Current situation: -62.9 vs -68.0 expected (prior: -65.9)
- The expectations index has slumped to the lowest level since April due to the war in Iran, which could put at risk the recent economic recovery.
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Feb.): -0.3% m/m (prior: -0.2%)
- PPI & import prices y/y: -2.7% after -2.2% in January.
- The annual change fell to the lowest level since November 2020.
Monday, March 16
Mixed US index in industry: rising production while falling regional business confidence
US: Empire manufacturing (March): -0.2 vs 3.9 expected (prior: 7.1)
- The business confidence index remains highly volatile on a month-to-month basis.
- Sentiment on current situation has decreased over the month due to a sharp fall in shipments and in prices paid too.
- Other sub-components were on the rise such as new orders, delivery time, unfilled orders and employment, making the situation less severely negative than the global index.
- The 6-month index has slightly decreased (from 34.7 to 31) with all subcomponents on the fall, except capex.
- This index seems to reflect uncertainties and constraints coming from the war on global activity, while pressures from previous tariff hikes on prices seemed to ease.
US: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Manufacturing production was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.8% m/m the prior month; production was driven by equipment goods, up by 0.2% m/m.
- Within sector, auto production and computers were on the rise over the month, as well as the defense sector.
Friday, March 13
US inflation held steady in January while consumer confidence slipped
US: Core PCE deflator (Jan): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)
- The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge still points to sticky prices. In January, core PCE quickened to 3.1% y/y from 3.0%, matching forecasts and ensuring a close look from the FOMC next week.
- Services drove the gain: the "supercore" measure, core services excluding housing, rose 0.4% m/m, up from 0.3%, with healthcare leading the advance.
- The print predates the recent surge in energy costs and could face upside risks in the future.
US: Personal income (Jan): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Consumer demand kept its December rhythm in January, with spending tilting further from goods to services.
- Personal spending held steady at 0.4% m/m, while real spending eked out a modest 0.1% gain.
- Higher energy costs will weigh on real spending, though tax refunds and wage growth should offer some support; even so, a fragile labor market remains a risk to the outlook.
US: GDP (4Q S): 0.7% q/q vs 1.4% expected (prior: 4.4%)
- The BEA now reckons the government shutdown bit harder than first thought. Fourth-quarter growth was revised down to a 0.7% q/q annualized rate from 1.4%.
- Consumer, business and government outlays, as well as exports, were all marked lower. Even so, the underlying demand gauge held up relatively well.
US: Durable goods orders (Jan P): 0.0% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -1.4%)
- Durable-goods orders were flat in January, disappointing expectations. Excluding transportation, a cleaner read on underlying activity, new orders rose 0.4% m/m, down from an upwardly revised 1.3%.
- Core capital-goods orders (nondefense, ex-aircraft) were likewise flat, while core shipments, that feeds into GDP, slipped 0.1% m/m, versus 1.0% previously and well below the 0.4% forecast.
- Even so, momentum remains positive on a year-on-year basis for both core orders and shipments.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Mar P): 55.5 vs 54.8 expected (prior: 56.6)
- The Iran conflict has barely dented American consumer sentiment, at least judging by inflation expectations.
- Though the headline index fell by less than forecast, short‑term inflation expectations held at 3.4%, defying predictions of a rise to 3.7%.
- The current-conditions gauge climbed to a five‑month high (55.5), while the expectations index slipped to its lowest since November (54.1).
- Looking ahead, sentiment could yet buckle under higher fuel prices linked to the Israel–US tensions and a still‑fragile labor market.
US: JOLTS Job Openings (Jan): 6946k vs 6750k expected (prior: 6550k revised from 6542k)
- America’s JOLTS data showed a tick-up in job openings. Even so, caution is in order as response rates remain weak, clouding the signal. Layoffs edged down from 1.1% to 1.0%, while the hiring rate held steady.
Eurozone: Industrial production (Jan): -1.5% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -1.4%)
- Eurozone industrial output fell 1.5% m/m in January, wrong-footing expectations of a 0.6% rebound, though December was revised up to -0.6% from -1.4%.
- Germany (-1.3%), Italy (-0.6%) and Spain (-0.5%) all slipped; France rose 0.5%. A 9.8% plunge in Ireland, often volatile due to multinationals, amplified the drag.
- February’s PMI hinted at stabilization, but it predates the latest flare-up involving Iran and higher energy costs. With manufacturers already flagging rising inputs, commodities, transport and wages, next week’s PMI prints will be important to monitor.
UK: GDP (Jan): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Britain entered 2026 with scant momentum, leaving it more exposed as Middle Eastern tensions rise. The services powerhouse stagnated amid a softening labor market; manufacturing edged up 0.1% m/m (vs. 0.2% expected) and construction 0.2%.
- Looking ahead, PMIs point to a firmer underlying pace (about 1.5% q/q annualized), but a sustained energy-price spike would sap growth.