Daily macro update

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb.21): 212k vs 216k expected (prior: 208k revised from 206k)

• Continuing claims: 1833 k after 1864 k prior week.

Eurozone: M3 (Jan.): 3.3% y/y vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.8%)

• Monetary aggregates and credit have accelerated entering 2026.
• M2 was up by 3.4% y/y (3.1% y/y prior month) and M1 up by 5.3% y/y (4.7% y/y prior month).
• Credit to private sector has increased by 3.0% y/y after 2.9% y/y prior month.

Italy: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 97.4 vs 97 expected (prior: 96.8)

• Consumer sentiment has increased on higher expectations in future economy, more positive personal financial situation.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Feb.): 88.5 vs 89.6 expected (prior: 89.2)

• Business confidence has slightly decreased in manufacturing and in services; on the opposite, it has regained for construction and retail sectors.
• While business sentiment index remains on stable level past months, consumer confidence has shown a rebuilding trend.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Feb.): 97.7 (prior: 103.4 revised from 103.6)

• Business confidence has decreased over the month after large rebound at year end.
• Sentiment has increased in construction but weakened in services.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 96.3 vs 95.5 expected (prior: 95 revised from 95.3)

• Consumer sentiment has improved on both macro and personal levels over the month.

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Feb.): -7.1 vs -6.2 expected (prior: -6.8)

• Business confidence has decreased over the month, contrary to consensus expectations.
• Opinions remained stable on production and orders but weakened on employment while inventories were on the rise.
• Selling prices were on the rise over the month.

Eurozone: Services confidence (Feb.): 5 vs 7.4 expected (prior: 6.8 revised from 7.2)

• Confidence has decreased over the month in services; opinions declined on current situation and future demand; confidence has also decreased in construction sector.
• The service and industrial business confidence came lower than the prior month and were also more cautious than the PMI indices.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Feb.): -12.2 as expected (prior: -12.4)

• Consumer confidence was marginally better than the prior month.
• Opinions were less negative on financial situation and economic outlook, but households remained concerned by unemployment.
• They were cautious on future purchases, and over the trend in prices, while preference for saving has increased again.

Eurozone: CPI (Jan.): -0.6% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inflation was confirmed lower over the month; only minor changes at the sector level were seen from the first estimates.
• Food prices were up by 0.7% m/m after 0% the prior month; prices of energy were up by 0.8% m/m after -0.9% m/m the prior month.
• Services were down by 0.4% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and those of goods down by 2.4% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month).
• The yearly trend has been confirmed at 1.7% y/y after 2.0% y/y prior month and core inflation at 2.2% y/y after 2.3% y/y. Services (3.2% y/y) and food prices (2.6% y/y) remain the main drivers of the yearly trend.

France: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 91 vs 90 expected (prior: 90)

• Consumer sentiment has slightly gained from the prior month.
• Opinions were less negative on financial situation and standard of living; concerns have increased on unemployment and preferences for saving have increased further.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (March): -24.7 vs -23 expected (prior: -24.2 revised from -24.1)

• Consumer confidence has deteriorated over the month; expectations on future business have decreased, while willingness to buy has decreased and preference for saving has increased.

Germany: GDP (Q4-25): 0.3% q/q as expected (prior: 0%)

• First estimate was confirmed pointing to firmer growth at year end.
• Consumer has rebounded by 0.5%q after being flat in Q3-25. Public consumption was very strong up by 1.1%q (0.6%q in Q3).
• Investment was up by 1.0 %q (0.3%q in Q3), but the rebound was driven by construction while equipment was up by a modest 0.1%q.
• Exports were down by 0.6%q and imports also down by 0.3%q.
• Monthly indicators have turned more positive in early 2026, notably in industry, and pointed in favor of a broader growth across sectors which will fuel another 0.3%q GDP rebound expected in Q1-26 growth.

Spain: PPI (Jan.): 0.5% m/m (prior: 0.4%)

• Prices were more sustained over the month for energy, mining and industrial and durable consumer goods.
• Yearly trend remained negative at -2.9% y/y (-3% y/y the prior month), due a still large fall in energy prices (-10% y/y).

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Dec.): 1.38% y/y vs 1.30% expected (prior: 1.42% revised from 1.39%)

• Prices were up by 0.47% m/m after 0.53% m/m the prior month.
• Over the 20 cities under review, only 4 cities offered positive yearly trend in prices, while 6 cities have shown prices in a 0%-1% y/y range and the other cities have seen prices under negative yearly trend.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Feb.): -10 vs -5 expected (prior: -6)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions have decreased on orders, shipments and capex on current situation.
• The 6-month index has decreased for shipments, but opinions remained stable on new orders and have increased at 6-month for employment.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Feb.): 91.2 vs 87.1 expected (prior: 89 revised from 84.5)

• Consumer confidence has improved after a fall seen the prior month (past month data were revised up).
• Sentiment has eroded on present situation, but expectations have regained from the prior month while its related index remained below levels seen in Dec.
• The difficulties to find a job remained a concern, but the index has improved after the fall seen the prior month; sentiment on future economy was also higher than prior month but its index remained below its Dec. level.
• Plan to spend has decreased for autos and houses over the month but it stabilized for other big items.
• The average 12-M inflation has marginally decreased from 5.6% to 5.5% y/y.

US: Wholesale inventories (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Final data for inventories have shown a rebound in stocks for autos, while they declined for computers and machinery.
• Sales were down for autos but on a strong rebound for computers and machinery.

France: Business confidence (Feb.): 97 vs 99 expected (prior: 99)

• Business confidence has decreased in manufacturing sector (index down from 105 prior month to 102).
• Domestic and foreign orders have sharply decreased over the month. Opinions have decreased on production while inventories were on the rise.

Poland: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 6% as expected (prior: 5.7%)

• Unemployed has sharply increased over the month.

US: Factory orders (Dec.): -0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 2.7%)

• Orders were down over the month due to a large reversal in orders for civil aircrafts, but orders on defense were strong.
• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core orders) were up by 0.8% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month, which looked particularly sustained and positive for the US capex cycle.
• Over the month, orders were sustained for IT, metals, fabricated metals, turbines, computers and electronics.
• Shipments were up by 0.5% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month) and up by 1% m/m for core orders.
• Inventories were up by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and up by 0.4% m/m for core orders.

Germany: IFO (Feb.): 88.6 vs 88.3 expected (prior: 87.6)

• Business confidence has improved on both current situation and expectations.
• Sentiment on current situation has regained from 85.7 prior month to 86.7 and expectations have rebounded from 89.6 to 90.5, both being slightly higher than expected by the consensus for the month under review. These indicators recovered to their high levels seen in past Aug. 25.
• By sector, sentiment was less negative over the month on manufacturing and construction while it has turned positive on services; on the opposite, it was more negative on the trade sector.
• As seen in PMI and orders, activity and confidence are both recovering and pave the way to firmer growth in 2026.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Jan.): -0.2% m/m (prior: -0.2%)

• Import prices were down by 0.5% m/m (as seen the prior month) and down by 3.5% y/y after -2.5% y/y.
• Producer prices were down by 0.2% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month) and down by 1.5% y/y after -1.3% y/y the prior month.

Switzerland: M3 (Jan.): 5.1% y/y (prior: 4.5% revised from 4.6%)

• M1 growth has accelerated to 18.9% y/y after 18.1% y/y prior month; M2 was up by 13.6% y/y after 13.5% y/y; time deposits have contracted further while saving deposits remained on a rising trend.

Italy: CPI (Jan.): -1% m/m as expected

• Inflation was confirmed down over the month; yearly trend has decreased to 1% y/y from 1.2% y/y prior month.

Poland: Retail sales (Jan.): -17.8% m/m vs -19% expected (prior: 12.5%)

• Sales have reverted over the month but remained highly volatile on a monthly basis; yearly trend has weakened to 4.4% y/y after 5.3% y/y the prior month. The trend remained strong for clothes and household goods.