Daily macro update

France: Business confidence (March): 97 vs 96 expected (prior: 96)

• Manufacturing confidence has decreased from 97 the prior month to 96.
• Sentiment has weakened a bit on new orders, but views on own production was also less negative over the month.
• Sentiment in services has marginally decreased over the month (index at 97.5 from 97.6 prior month).

Switzerland: M3 (Feb.): 2.3% y/y (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.6%)

• M1 was up by 5.7% y/y after 4.1% y/y prior month; M2 was up by 7.1% y/y after 6% y/y.
• Time deposits have declined further (-17.3% y/y).

UK: GFK consumer confidence (March): -19 vs -20 expected (prior: -20)

• Consumer confidence was marginally better than the prior month.
• Sentiment was less negative on financial situation and on current and future economic situation.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (March): -14.5 vs -13 expected (prior: -13.6)

• Flash estimate for consumer confidence has pointed to a renewed weakness over the month and the index was back to its Dec. level.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (March): 85.9 (prior: 82.1)

• Confidence has regained over the moth (measured before current political situation); opinions have increased on personal financial situation, unemployment, and future economic situation.

US: Initial jobless claims (March 15): 223k vs 224k expected (prior: 220k)

• Continuing claims: 1892 k after 1870 k prior week.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (March): 12.5 vs 9 expected (prior: 18.1)

• Business sentiment has declined less than expected over the month.
• Views on current situation and expectations (6M views) have both declined over the month.
• Main common factors have driven the fall: lower new orders, shipments, and inventories.
• Employment and prices paid remained on the rise on current situation while they declined in the 6M views.
• Prices paid have sharply increased on the short term but decreased medium term.

US: Existing home sales (Feb.): 4.26M vs 3.95M expected (prior: 4.09M revised from 4.08M)

• Sales have rebounded over the month; a strong rebound in sales of single-family houses but a sharp fall in multifamily houses. Inventories were on the rise for this latest segment.
• Prices were up by 3.8% y/y (4.8% y/y the prior month).

Germany: PPI (Feb.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Energy prices were down by 1% m/m after -0.9% m/m prior month; prices for consumer, capital and intermediate goods were up in a 0.2%-0.4% m/m range over the month.
• Yearly trend was up by 0.7% y/y after 0.5% y/y the prior month.

Switzerland: Trade balance (Feb.): 4.80 Bn CHF (prior: 6.15Bn)

• Real exports: 4.2% m/m after -3.9% m/m prior month; real imports: 3.3% m/m after -1.4% m/m prior month.

Switzerland: The SNB has cut its key rates by 25 bp to 0.25% as expected.

• The SNB has cut its key rates to stabilize future inflation facing downside risks. Q1 inflation was driven lower by electricity prices, and, besides energy, inflation is mainly driven by domestic services according to the bank.
• The bank expects 2025 GDP growth to be resilient in a 1%-1.5% range and to settle at 1.5% in 2026.
• Conditional inflation has been revised up from average 0.3% to 0.4% y/y in 2025 and remained at 0.8% y/y for 2026.
• The bank mentioned a high level of uncertainty due to rising trade barriers, uncertain geopolitical situation, and prospect of an expansionary European fiscal policy.
• The bank mentioned that it has no intention to cut rates further. The bank restored a tiering system on bank reserves remuneration and mentioned it could intervene in the FX market.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jan.): 4.4% as expected (prior: 4.4%)

• Claimant count: 4.7% after 4.5% the prior month.
• Employment remained sustained over the month (21 k after 9k prior month) and the 3M employment was also strong (up by 144 k after 88 k the prior 3M period).
• Jobless claims have increased from 2.8 k to 44.2 k.
• Labor has shown volatile data, notably on claims but the trend on employment remains positive.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Jan.): 5.8% y/y as expected (prior: 6.1% revised from 6%)

• Wage growth has declined in all sectors over the month; nevertheless, wage growth in services and construction sectors remained above the trend for the whole economy.

UK: The BoE left key rates unchanged at 4.50%.

• The bank remained in a relatively hawkish mood and wanted to maintain policy in a relatively restrictive territory to squeeze inflation pressures. Vote on rates was split between 8-1, with one dissent in favour of immediate 25 bp cut.
• Despite recent weak indicators, the bank expects a positive but moderate growth and pointed to risks of rising inflation to 3.75% in Q3, with more lasting effects of inflation pressures in H2-25.
• The BoE seemed also in no hurry to cut key rates further.

Poland: Industrial production (Feb.): -0.4% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 2.5% revised from 2.3%)

• Production was down in all major sectors except utility (water production); manufacturing production was down by 0.3% m/m after a large rebound seen the prior month (3.4% m/m).

Eurozone: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Final data came lower than expected due to more moderate monthly rise in services (0.6% m/m instead of 0.7% in flash estimate).
• Food prices were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month; energy prices have reversed, contracting by 0.3% m/m after 3% m/m prior month.
• Prices of goods were down by 0.4% m/m after -2.4% m/m prior month; services were up by 0.6% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month. Monthly changes remained highly volatile, notably energy and good prices.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.5% y/y prior month to 2.3%y/y, and core inflation from 2.7% y/y to 2.6% y/y.
• These inflation data leave the door open to another rate cut in April from the ECB.

US: Housing starts (Feb.): 1501k vs 1385k expected (prior: 1350k revised from 1366k)

• Housing starts have rebounded by more than 10% over the month on both single family and multifamily houses.
• Building permits were quite flat over the month on single family houses and were down again for multifamily houses.
• Housing starts have rebounded after storms favored by a strong rebuilding process.

US: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.5%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.9% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• The rebound was driven by the auto sector (8.5% m/m after -5.3% m/m prior month); on the opposite, energy sector was down by 2.5% m/m after 6.1% m/m prior month.
• Real data look volatile but nevertheless not in a recession camp (production up by 1.4% y/y).

Germany: Zew (March): -87.6 vs -80.5 expected (prior: -88.5)

• Sentiment on current situation has slightly improved but less than expected and the index remained depressed based on history.
• Expectations have surged over the month (index up to 51.6 after 26 prior month) on prospects of firmer GDP growth and more fiscal support. The related index was back to the high levels seen in 2021.