Daily macro update

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (April): 95.9 vs 96.1 expected (prior: 95.8)

• Business sentiment was just slightly higher prior month but remained below consensus expectations. The index remained at quite low level, compared to 2025 level.
• Sentiment was slightly more positive on capex and inventories but weaker than prior month about future economy, sales, and total wages.
• Selling prices were on the rise.

US: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m (0.3% m/m expected) after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Inflation was mainly driven by energy and services over the month.
• Energy prices were up by 3.8% m/m after 10.9% m/m prior month; gasoline prices were up by 5.4% m/m after 21.2% m/m prior month.
• Services were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m; the monthly acceleration was mainly due to housing (shelter) costs (0.6% m/m after 0.3% m/m) and by transport (airfares up by 2.8% m/m after 2.7% m/m). Other services (audio services, delivery services, other personal services) have shown monthly acceleration.
• Food prices were up by 0.5% m/m (0% m/m the prior month); prices of beef, eggs, fresh fruits and milk products have shown some rebound over the month.
• Good prices were flat over the month; rises in apparels, education and tobacco were more than compensated by falling prices in other sectors, notably used and new cars.
• The yearly trend has accelerated from 3.3% y/y prior month to 3.8% y/y, in line with expectations; core inflation has accelerated to 2.8% y/y (2.7% y/y expected) from 2.6% y/y the prior month.
• Inflation, and particularly core inflation, will be the first concern for the Fed over the next months.

Germany: CPI (April): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.2%)

• Final data confirmed the pressure of energy upon headline inflation; energy prices were up by 4.3% m/m after 15.6% m/m the prior month and transport costs were also on the rise; separately, food prices were also sustained over the month.
• Yearly trend has modestly accelerated from 2.8% y/y to 2.9% y/y.

Germany: Zew (May): -77.8 vs -78 expected (prior: -73.7)

• Sentiment on current situation has deteriorated but expectations were less negative over the month as the related index was up from -17.2 prior month to -10.2.
• By sector, sentiment has deteriorated for retail, services, and chemical sectors, while views have improved on IT, telco, construction and electronic sectors.

Italy: Industrial production (March): 0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• Despite a strong monthly rebound in industrial activity, the picture was highly contrasted at sector level.
• Production has rebounded for capital goods (2.1% m/m after 1.1% m/m prior month) and has shown regular rise in intermediate goods (0.3% this month and the prior one).
• On the opposite, production of energy was down by 1.2% m/m (-5.4% m/m prior month) and also down by 4.2% m/m for durable consumer goods (-3.7% m/m prior month).

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (April): 0.8% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

• Import prices were up by 2.3% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month); producer prices were up by 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has increased from -3.2% y/y prior month to-1% y/y on import prices, while it stayed negative (-2.4% y/y as prior month) for producer prices.

US: Existing home sales (April): 4.02M vs 4.05M expected (prior: 4.01M revised from 3.98M)

• Sales were slightly higher than the prior month, but just below consensus expectations for this month.
• Sales of single-family houses remained stable over the prior months, while sales of multi-family houses have increased over the month.
• Inventories (months of sales) have increased, notably for single-family houses over the month.
• Prices remained on a modest by rising trend; median prices were up by 0.9% y/y and prices for single-family houses have increased by 1% y/y.

Norway: CPI (April): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Monthly changes have shown increased pressures on food, clothes, leisure and insurance costs. Core inflation was up by 0.7% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.6% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y, but core inflation has accelerated from 3.0% y/y prior month to 3.2% y/y.

US: Non-farm payrolls (April): 115k vs 65k expected (prior: 185k revised from 178k)

• Unemployment ratio remained at 4.3% as expected. Payrolls were revised up in March, but lower in Feb. (-156 k final vs -133 k previous estimates).
• Labor seems globally to have stabilized and to remain solid, but details at sector level offered a mixed picture. Payrolls were supported by services, and particularly from trade and health sectors.
• By sector, payrolls have slowed down in construction (9 k after 16 k prior month) and turned negative in manufacturing sector (-2 k after 15 k).
• Services have created 113 k after 157 k jobs the prior month. In details, a mixed picture: rising jobs in trade-transport (60 k after 46 k prior month) but decreasing creations in health (46 k after 91k).
• Creations have also decreased in business services and leisure-hospitality; they turned negative for information, finance, and government sectors
• Wage growth remained moderate, up by 0.2% m/m and 3.6% y/y (3.4% y/y prior month).
• Given solid payrolls, the Fed FOMC should probably remain more concerned by upside risks on inflation than downside risks on labor.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (May): 48.2 vs 49.5 expected (prior: 49.8)

• Preliminary consumer sentiment has decreased from the prior month: a sharp fall in sentiment on current condition and a timid recovery in expectations, which stayed at very depressed level.
• Opinions have deteriorated on current net income situation; expectations point to hopes of some stabilization in financial situation and better business conditions. Views were mixed on future unemployment and expectations remained in favor of higher rates and higher gas prices.
• Regarding purchases, sentiment was more positive on houses but decreased a lot about autos.
• 12M inflation expectations have declined from 4.7% to 4.5% y/y and 5-10Y inflation expectations have marginally decreased from 3.5% to 3.4% y/y.

Germany: Industrial production (March): -0.7% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.3%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 0.9% m/m (-0.4% m/m prior month); all sectors were down over the month except intermediate and construction sectors; the largest monthly fall was seen in the energy sector.

Germany: Trade Balance (March): 14.3bn EUR vs 17.8bn expected (prior: 19.6bn revised from 19.8bn)

• Trade surplus has decreased as imports remained strong, up by 5.1% m/m (4.9% m/m prior month), while exports were up by just 0.5% m/m (3.6% m/m prior month).

Spain: Industrial production (March): 2.3% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• All sectors have shown a strong rebound in monthly activity, except the durable consumer goods sector.

Norway: Industrial production (March): -1% m/m (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.7%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 2% m/m thanks to machinery and a surge in boats-oil platform production.

Sweden: Industrial production (March): 1.1% m/m (prior: -0.6% revised from 0.1%)

• Production in industry was down by 2% m/m after 3.8% m/m prior month; services were up by 2.2% m/m after -2.2% m/m prior month.

Sweden: Retail sales (March): 1.4% m/m (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• Total consumption has rebounded over the month.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (April): -40 vs -45.5 expected (prior: -42.9)

• Confidence has regained over the month, but the index remained depressed.
• The views were less negative on economic outlook and financial situation but were more negative on future purchases.

Turkey: Industrial production (March): -0.8% m/m (prior: 2.7% revised from 2.6%)

US: Initial jobless claims (May 2): 200k vs 205k expected (prior: 190k revised from 189k)

• Continuing claims: 1766 k vs 1776 k the prior week.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q1-26): 0.8% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.6% revised from 1.8%)

• Productivity has slowed down but was higher than expected in Q1 and the yearly trend has accelerated further at 2.9% y/y after 2.5% y/y in Q4-25.
• Output was up by 1.5% q, while hours worked have increased and total wages were up by 3.1% q (6.3% in Q4-25).
• Unit labor costs were up by 2.3% q after 4.6% q the prior quarter.

US: Construction spending (March): 0.6% m/m (prior: 0.3%)

• Construction spending has accelerated over the month; construction of private single-family houses has rebounded by 2.7% m/m after -1.4% m/m prior month.

Eurozone: Retail sales (March): -0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.2%)

• Sales have contracted further, and prior month data were revised lower.
• Over the month, sales have declined for food and auto fuels, while non-good sales were up by 0.6% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month).

Germany: Factory orders (March): 5% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 0.9%)

• Orders have strongly rebounded over the month; domestic orders were up by 4% m/m (-4.4% m/m prior month), and foreign orders up by 5.6% m/m (5.5% m/m prior month).
• By sector, orders have strongly rebounded for intermediate goods (9.2% m/m), mainly driven by foreign (non-eurozone) orders. Orders for consumer sector were up by 7.3 % m/m (4.4% prior month), driven by a rebound from both domestic and foreign orders.
• Capital goods orders were up by 2.1% m/m (1.1% m/m prior month), only driven by domestic orders.

Norway: Norges bank has increased key rates by 25 bp to 4.25%.

• The bank was worried by high inflation (3.6% y/y; 3.0% on core inflation) and prospects of inflation to remain high the future months; there was no explicit forward guidance in the statement, but it seemed a hawkish bias is in place.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (April): 3% as expected (prior: 3%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month but the ratio (sa) remained stable.