Daily macro update

Germany: Factory orders (Aug.): -0.8% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: -2.7% revised from -2.9%)

• Foreign orders were down by 4.1% m/m with both demand from eurozone and non-eurozone in sharp fall for another month.
• Domestic orders were up by 4.7% m/m after -2.4% m/m prior month; domestic orders have sharply rebounded for intermediate and capital goods over the month while they still declined for consumer goods.
• The expected recovery is slow, and it takes time for the reflation policy to revive domestic industry.

Norway: Industrial production (Aug.): 1.3% m/m (prior: 0.4%)

• Activity has regained over the month thanks to oil, chemical, pharma and basic metals sectors.
• Trend looks volatile but it has improved over the recent months.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Aug.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.5%)

• Sales were down by 0.1% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month) for non-food sales, due to falling sales of autos.
• On the opposite, sales of food and fuels were up over the month.
• Consumer confidence and sales remained fragile in the eurozone.

Spain: Industrial production (Aug.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.5%)

• Except a sharp rebound in production of capital goods, production has declined for durable consumer goods, intermediary goods and in the energy sector.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Sept.): 3% vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.9%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

US: Services PMI (Sept.): 54.2 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 54.5)

• Sentiment has finally marginally decreased from the prior month and the index remained high.
• Activity was supported by financial, leisure, and recreation sectors and by the tech sector too.
• Employment index has decreased over the month; selling prices have increased at slow pace.

US: ISM Services (Sept.): 50 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 52)

• Sentiment in services has decreased more than expected over the month (large firms more represented in ISM than in PMI index).
• The picture was mixed at the detailed level: falling opinions on new orders, activity and exports but positive on employment.
• Prices paid remained on the rise.
• The ISM index (both manufacturing and services) painted a more fragile situation than PMI composite, reflecting a more constructive view, this index is based on more domestic oriented firms and medium-sized firms.

France: Industrial production (Aug.): -0.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -1.1%)

• Industrial activity remained in contraction, but prior month data were revised up.
• Over the month, all sectors were down except mining and utilities. The fall was driven by autos and refineries.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Sept.): 51.3 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 50.5)

• Final data confirmed the monthly rebound in services, but slightly lower than expected.
• Opinions have improved from the prior month on new business in all countries; the rebound in services was broad based across major countries, except for France.
• Domestic demand was strong while exports remained weak; employment remained positive but has shown slowest pace compared to past months. The rise in costs and prices was the slowest versus prior months.
• Germany, Italy and Spain services indices have increased over the month and were comfortably above the 50 level.

UK: Services PMI (Sept.): 50.8 vs 51.9 expected (prior: 54.2)

• Momentum has deteriorated in services over the month; sentiment on new orders has also declined sharply but the index remained above 50 at 50.4.
• Opinions have deteriorated on activity, (uncertainty from budget and political situation) and new business, while external demand remained modest (weak demand from the eurozone); employment has decreased.
• Costs were on the rise (due to wage costs) but rises in final prices remained limited as competition was stronger.

Norway: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 2.1% as expected (prior: 2.1%)

• In non-seasonally adjusted data, unemployed has decreased over the month while seasonally adjusted data remained stable on the unemployment ratio.

Turkey: CPI (Sept.): 3.23% m/m vs 2.58% expected (prior: 2.04%)

• Monthly prices have sharply accelerated for education (18% m/m) and increased strongly for food, clothes and transport over the month.
• Yearly trend has re-accelerated for headline inflation at 33.29% y/y after 32.95% y/y the prior month; it declined a bit for core inflation from 33% y/y the prior month to 32.54% y/y.

Italy: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6% as expected (prior: 5.9% revised from 6%)

• The unemployment rate has just slightly increased over the month.
• Unemployed has marginally increased after two months of decline.
• The ratio remained close to its lowest level.

Switzerland: CPI (Sept.): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Except prices of clothes on rebound over the month, all other main categories have shown falling prices: food, energy, leisure and transport. Core inflation was down by 0.2% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 0.2% y/y and core inflation stable at 0.8% y/y.

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6.3% vs 6.2% expected (prior: 6.2%)

• Unemployed has marginally increased over the month.