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Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have risen by nearly 40%, outpacing every major developed market equity index – even the S&P 500.

Over the summer months, gold rose to new all-time highs at levels of around USD 2,685 per oz. The nearly relentless rise in the gold price reflects several factors.

There are signs that sterling is set to embark on an upward trend after several years in the doldrums.

In January, gold traded in a tight range of between USD 2,000 and USD 2,050 per oz. This tight trading range reflected a generally subdued trading environment – three-month implied volatilities fell to levels of around 10% – which is a relatively low level of volatility for the yellow metal.

Coming into 2024, here at UBP we hold a constructive view on the JPY. We anticipate that it will continue to appreciate over the course of the year, and we envisage a USD/JPY downward move to levels of around 135 by year-end, with risk skewed to the downside of this level. This represents a decline of at least 6% from current levels. Our generally constructive stance on JPY exchange rates reflects several factors.

2024 will be a strong year for gold. Our expectation of ongoing price increases for the yellow metal is driven by several factors, namely the global decline in inflation, weaker USD exchange rates, increasing concerns regarding US debt sustainability, central bank gold purchases, the resilience of gold trading, and ongoing geopolitical risks.

During our last webinar focusing on the much-discussed idea that more and more countries are abandoning the US dollar as a reserve currency, UBP’s senior strategists shared their thoughts on the combination of cyclical and structural factors that should indeed lead to a weaker dollar, and the impact this will have on asset classes.