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Investment Outlook 2025

Wondering how to invest in a fragmented economy? Look no further for insight into finding the pockets of resilience next year: UBP’s Investment Outlook 2025 is now under way.

Every autumn our experts unveil their outlook on the economy and the markets for the upcoming year in their Investment Outlook roadshow. This includes a launch webcast, a tour across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, as well as a brochure and podcasts.


Our convictions

Titled "Fragmented Resilience", this year’s Investment Outlook delves into the dynamics of inflation, structural shifts, and geopolitical developments. So far, the global economy has managed to sidestep a recession, demonstrating a remarkable – though uneven – resilience. In this fragmented landscape, our experts shed light on the regions and sectors poised to drive value in 2025.

In this video, dive into UBP’s Investment Outlook 2025 to discover our key convictions for the year ahead. 

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"Our Investment Outlook 2025 adopts a selective approach in a fragmented investment landscape. Our strength lies in our ability to identify the key opportunities that will shape the year ahead."

Michaël Lok, Group CIO and Co-CEO Asset Management

Fragmented resilience

The global economy has once again skirted recession for a second consecutive year. Yet, the year ahead may bring additional challenges as growth becomes increasingly fragmented, albeit with certain pockets of resilience.

In the United States, Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks set to deliver a stronger economic boost than anticipated. Outside the US, we expect growth to remain resilient, especially in Asia.

Europe’s economies face another crossroads in their ongoing effort towards a closer union, with elections on the cards. Switzerland, Scandinavia, and the global pharmaceutical sector offer investors exposure to both resilience and innovation.

A resurgence of inflation by late 2025, concern about rising bond yields, and geopolitical tensions are a more prominent feature of today’s landscape. Defence companies are well positioned to benefit from this new environment, while gold remains a vital component of portfolio risk management.

Learn more below

Podcast series

Watch this space for upcoming podcasts with topical contents.

Investment Outlook 2025

Our Corporate Communications Manager Robert Wibberley speaks to six of our experts to explore the economic environment, the key trends, and our main convictions on asset classes.

Our brochure

A brochure covering the global economy, inflation, market developments, currencies, and what we see as the most compelling investment opportunities is available. Download it now and find out about our experts’ convictions.

Investment Outlook 2025 brochure

Download

Our Investment Outlook experts

02.04.2025

Technology: providing access to the Chinese market

Supported by innovation and the government, technology is the only Chinese sector offering great visibility.

26.03.2025

The Dollar and the Donald

Observers and investors were expecting the US dollar to go up in value. This was without counting on the new US administration’s erratic policymaking and announcements on tariffs. Where is it going next and what other factors are affecting the greenback?

13.03.2025

UBP House View - March 2025

Trump’s activism on the US economy is creating fears of recession. To navigate short-term turbulence, we have tactically scaled back our exposure to macro-sensitive assets, such as US equities, including US midcaps, along with high-yield and emerging-market debt, while increasing our allocation to gold.

04.03.2025

Can US equities sustain their momentum?

US corporate earnings growth is slowing. Unless it picks up again, stocks will become overvalued.

03.03.2025

The case for office conversion

In New York as well as other major metro areas, once-bustling corporate offices are now quieter, leading companies to adjust to a new reality: remote working is no longer a temporary solution but rather a structural shift. Consequently, corporates are actively reducing their office space footprints, significantly increasing vacancies in the sector.

27.02.2025

Silver: onwards and upwards

At UBP, we think that silver is set to rise substantially over the coming weeks and months, reflecting large global inventory shifts and an increasingly compelling valuation profile.

24.02.2025

DeepSeek: Chinese challenger enters the AI race

A new player has shaken the AI industry. DeepSeek, until recently a little-known Chinese start-up has launched DeepSeek-R1, a low-cost AI model challenging OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which is a stark reminder that the US is no longer the only competitor in the global AI race.

20.02.2025

India: Will the economy get its mojo back?

The post-election fiscal tightening in 2024, coupled with persistent inflationary pressures, has cast a shadow over India’s economy.

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