Tägliche Makro-Analyse
Freitag, Februar 21
Momentum less favourable in PMI services in the US and eurozone, but it has regained in the UK
US: Manufacturing PMI (Feb.): 51.6 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 51.2)
- According to flash estimates, business sentiment has increased further over the month; views on production have regained for the second month, while new orders have weakened as new exports. The rise in activity is partly related to fears of rising tariffs and ahead of further constraints on the supply chain.
- Employment has slightly improved.
- Prices paid were sharply on the rise due to rising raw material prices and selling prices have increased in parallel.
US: Services PMI (Feb.): 49.7 vs 53 expected (prior: 52.9)
- Confidence has declined in services and the index has passed below the 50 level.
- Slower activity and stalled future demand resulted from rising uncertainties related to political environment and cuts in federal spending according to the survey.
- Employment has turned negative in services. Costs remained on the rise while selling prices remained muted due to high competition in the sector.
- The composite index (manufacturing + services) has fallen from 52.7 the prior month to 50.4.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Feb.): 64.7 vs 67.8 expected (prior: 71.7)
- Final data on consumer sentiment has shown a lower index than in the first estimates.
- Both views on current situation and expectations have decreased more than expected from the prior month.
- Opinions have decreased on financial situation and have sharply deteriorated on future economy; concerns were on the rise for unemployment and gas prices. The rating about the government doing “good job” against inflation and unemployment has deteriorated.
- Willingness to buy autos and houses has declined.
- Inflation expectations have increased from 3.3% prior month to 4.3% y/y at 12M; inflation at 5-10 y have increased from 3.2% prior month to 3.5% y/y (3.2% y/y expected).
- Views are opposed among citizens, and deterioration comes from Independent and Democrats while they remained quite stable for Republicans.
US: Existing home sales (Jan.): 4.08M vs 4.13M expected (prior: 4.29M revised from 4.24M)
- The monthly decline was more pronounced for single family houses (-5.2% m/m) than for multifamily houses (-2.4% m/m).
- Inventories have increased over the month; prices have moderated on absolute basis from the prior month but remained sustained (4.8% y/y after 6% y/y on median prices of sales).
- First-time buyers have decreased from 31% as share of total purchases the prior month to 28%.
France: Business confidence (Feb.): 96 as expected (prior: 95)
- Business confidence has slightly increased over the month; confidence in the manufacturing sector has also increased (index from 96 to 97).
- Opinions were less negative on order books (both foreign and domestic orders) and on own production prospects.
- In parallel, confidence has also slightly increased on services, while it slightly decreased on construction.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Feb.): 47.3 vs 47 expected (prior: 46.6)
- In preliminary data, business sentiment has regained over the month, but the index remained below 50.
- Sentiment on new orders has improved from the prior month and total index has improved for both France (45.5) and Germany (46.1).
- Views on employment have decreased over the month; prices paid, and costs were on the rise, but selling prices have eroded, meaning margins under compression.
Eurozone: PMI Services (Feb.): 50.7 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.3)
- Contrary to manufacturing sector, preliminary estimates for sentiment in services lost steam since Dec.; opinions on new orders have decreased and the index has passed below 50 the month under review.
- Sentiment has collapsed in France (from 48.2 to 44.5) and moderately decreased in Germany (from 52.5 to 52.2).
- Employment remained slightly positive; costs and prices have re-accelerated further in services.
- The composition (manufacturing + services) index remained stable at 50.2. Activity in services still compensates the mild recession in the manufacturing sector.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Feb.): -20 vs -22 expected (prior: -22)
- Consumer confidence was less negative from the prior month.
- Opinions were less negative about personal financial situation, future economy and purchases.
- The index remained well below the level reached in Q2-24 (index at -13).
UK: PMI Manufacturing (Feb.): 46.4 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 48.3)
- According to preliminary data, momentum has decreased further in industry; new orders, demand and exports are seen lower than prior month. Employment has also sharply decreased.
- Rising raw material prices, energy and labor costs have again increased prices paid and selling prices.
UK: PMI Services (Feb.): 51.1 vs 50.8 expected (prior: 50.8)
- Momentum has stabilized in services, but demand and new exports have fallen. Employment has turned negative, and prices were on the rise due to labor costs.
UK: Retail sales (Jan.): 1.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.3%)
- Sales have regained after the large fall seen the prior month.
- The monthly rebound was driven by auto fuels and food, while other sectors (clothes, household goods) have contracted after positive territory the prior month.
Switzerland: M3 (Jan.): 1.6% y/y (prior: 1.9%)
- M1 was up by 4.1% y/y after 2.4% y/y prior month; M2 was up by 5.8% y/y after 4.6% y/y prior month.
- Time deposits have shown a double-digit contraction for the second month.
Donnerstag, Februar 20
US Philly Fed: weakening business but rising prices paid
US: Initial jobless claims (Feb.15): 219k vs 215k expected (prior: 214k revised from 213k)
- Continuing claims: 1869 k after 1845 k the prior week.
- Rise in jobless claims is not yet due to DOGE policy.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (Feb.): 18.1 vs 14.3 expected (prior: 44.3)
- Business confidence has decreased over the month after a strong rebound the prior month.
- Sentiment has declined on new orders, shipments, inventories, and employment; prices paid, and prices received have increased further.
- The 6-month index has also decreased but it remained at a high level. Opinions have also decreased for new orders, shipments, and employment; prices paid, and prices received have decreased after a strong rise the prior month, but related index remained high.
Germany: PPI (Jan.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Prices have sharply declined over the month on electricity and gas, but they were up for capital goods and prices.
- Yearly trend has declined from 0.8% y/y prior month to 0.5% y/y.
Poland: Industrial production (Jan.): 2.3% m/m vs 2.4% expected (prior: -7.9% revised from -8%)
- Industrial activity has rebounded mainly in the manufacturing sector, while production in mining and utility sectors have contracted further over the month.
Switzerland: Trade balance (Jan.): 6.12 Bn CHF (prior: 3.48Bn)
- Real exports were down by 3.9% m/m (5.4% m/m prior month) and real imports were also down by 1.9% m/m (4.7% m/m prior month).
Turkey: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 82.1 (prior: 81)
- Consumer confidence has slightly gained over the month; slightly more positive opinions on financial situation, future economy, and future purchases.
Mittwoch, Februar 19
Decreasing US Housing starts; UK inflation: not a comfortable pattern for the BoE
US: Housing starts (Jan.): 1366k vs 1390k expected (prior: 1515k revised from 1493k)
- Building permits were quite stable at 1483 k after 1482 k prior month.
- Housing starts have weakened for both single-family houses and multi-family houses; multi-family houses have decreased the most over the month (-13.5% m/m).
- Bad weather conditions have probably weighed down on monthly activity. Still firm permits could argue of a rebound in housing starts in Feb.
UK: CPI (Jan.): -0.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Picture was mixed at the sector level.
- Prices were down over the month for clothes, household goods, transport-holidays, and hotels-restaurants.
- On the opposite, strong rise was seen in food, energy, housing, health, and education (rising VAT for private schools).
- The yearly trend has re-accelerated from 2.5% y/y prior month to 3% y/y, and from 3.2% to 3.7% y/y for core inflation. Services were up by 5%y/y after 4.4% y/y the prior month but slightly below BoE's expectations of 5.2%.
- UK economy is again flirting with stagflation; next BoE's meeting will see another split in voting members and recent wage-inflation data argue in favour of another pause.
UK: PPI Input prices (Jan.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)
- Prices of materials have surged over the month.
- Yearly trend has regained from -1.3% y/y prior month to -0.1% y/y.
UK: PPI Output prices (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)
- Oil and food prices have accelerated over the month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from -0.1% y/y prior month to 0.3% y/y.
Dienstag, Februar 18
US: firmer business sentiment (NY Empire), but weakening opinions in housing
US: NY Empire manufacturing (Feb.): 5.7 vs 0 expected (prior: -12.6)
- Business sentiment has improved on current situation, driven by more positive views on new orders, shipment, inventories, but also higher prices paid and received.
- The 6-M index has eased back from the prior month, due to lower opinions on main components (new orders, employment, and capex); sentiment on 6-M prices paid has increased further while opinions on prices received have eased.
US: NAHB housing market index (Feb.): 42 vs 46 expected (prior: 47)
- Sentiment of professionals in housing has decreased over the month.
- Opinions have decreased on sales and future demand.
- Lack of reforms on rules and rising uncertainties related to trade and implied costs (appliances, lumber) have participated to the decrease in the balance of opinions.
France: CPI (Jan.): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Final data confirmed the monthly decline in prices.
- Prices have decreased over the month for clothes, health, and transport sectors; on the opposite, prices were stronger for fresh food, energy, and health services.
- Yearly trend was stable at 1.8% y/y and has increased from 1.4% y/y prior month to 1.7% y/y for core inflation.
Germany: Zew (Feb.): 26 vs 20 expected (prior: 10.3)
- Expectations have regained in Germany, and the index on current situation was less negative than prior month.
- The improvement in sentiment was driven by rising opinions in services, telcos, and IT sectors and less negative views on autos and engineering (but these two sectors remained depressed).
- Sentiment has sharply decreased from prior month in steel and moderately in banks.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Dec.): 4.4% vs 4.5% expected (prior: 4.4%)
- Claimant count remained stable at 4.6%.
- Jobless claims have increased from -15.1 k prior month to 22 k.; 3M employment remained positive up by 107 k after 36 k the prior period.
- Employment stayed globally positive, despite volatility seen on a monthly basis on employment and jobless claims.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Dec.): 6% y/y vs 5.9% expected (prior: 5.5% revised from 5.6%)
- Wages in services remained sustained, up by 6.1% y/y after 5.4% y/y the prior month. Momentum remained positive and sustained also in construction.
Sweden: CPI (Jan.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Prices (CPIF index) have declined for transport, culture, and clothes, but were on the rise over the month for food, housing, and health sectors.
- Yearly trend has increased from 1.5% y/y prior month to 2.2% y/y; core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month and the yearly trend has increased from 2.0% y/y to 2.7% y/y.
Montag, Februar 17
Sweden: a surprising surge of unemployment
Sweden: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 9.7% vs 8.5% expected (prior: 8.6% revised from 8.5%)
- Unemployment has surged over the month and employment has also decreased; some volatility is seen on monthly data, but trend seemed to have deteriorated for prime-age workers.