Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: GDP (Q4-25): 1.4% q/q vs 2.8% expected (prior: 4.4%)

• First estimate of Q4 GDP came lower than expected, mainly due to the negative impact of the government shutdown.
• Consumption was up by 2.4%q (3.5% in Q3), only driven by services (3.4%q), while good purchases were down by 0.1% q.
• Investment remained sustained fueled by equipment and new technologies: equipment was up by 3.2%q (5.2% in Q3) and R&D up by 7.4%q (5.6% ion Q3); spending on structure was down by 2.4% q and residential down by 1.5%q.
• Exports were down by 0.9%q and imports also down b1.3%, so that net exports contribution to GDP was flat.
• Inventories have contracted but less than in the prior quarter, so their contribution to GDP quarterly was slightly positive (+0.21 pp versus -0.12 pp in Q3).
• Public consumption was heavily down (-5.1%q after 2.2% in Q3) due to the government shutdown; this has a large negative impact of Q4 GDP, by -0.9 pp.
• Finally, private domestic sales (our favorite measure of US growth for now..) was up by 2.4% q after 2.9% q in Q3.

 

US: Personal income (Dec.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

• Wages were up by 0.2% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.
• Disposable income was up by 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month) but real disposable income was flat after 0.1% m/m the prior month.

 

US: Personal spending (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

• Purchases of goods were down by 0.1% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month) while those of services were up by 0.66% m/m (0.36% m/m prior month).
• Saving ratio remained quite stable at 3.6% after 3.7% the prior month.

 

US: Core PCE deflator (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Core inflation came higher than expected over the month.
• Yearly trend has regained from 2.8% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y.

 

US: Manufacturing PMI (Feb.): 51.2 vs 52.4 expected (prior: 52.4)

• Flash business sentiment came lower than expected and than the prior month, but the index remained above 50.
• Adverse weather conditions have probably negatively impacted the activity. Sentiment has decreased on new orders, production, and demand; exports have decreased as well as employment. Prices were softer due to higher competition.

 

US: Services PMI (Feb.): 52.3 vs 53 expected (prior: 52.7)

• Flash sentiment has slightly eased in services over the month.
• Sentiment has decreased on exports and employment but was firmer in new business. Prices were firmer over the month.

 

US: New home sales (Dec.): 745k vs 730k expected (prior: 758k)

• Sales have been contrasted across the 4 main districts: rising in Midwest and West districts but declining in Northeast and South districts.
• Inventories have slightly decreased from the prior month.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Feb.): 56.6 vs 57.3 expected (prior: 56.4)

• Consumer confidence has slightly increased from the prior month, but less than expected.
• Sentiment has improved on current situation, while expectations have slightly decreased (index from 57 to 56.6).
• Sentiment has improved on financial conditions in the short run and business expectations have slightly increased from the prior month, while unemployment remained a concern.
• 12-M inflation has decreased from 4% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y; 5-10y inflation expectations remained stable at 3.3% y/y.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Feb.): 50.8 vs 50 expected (prior: 49.5)

• Flash business sentiment has improved over the month, thanks to higher new orders (related index just above the 50 level).
• The rebound in production was more pronounced in Germany (PMI at 50.7 from 49.1 prior month), thanks to a rebound in new orders (index up to 52.4 from 50.4), while business sentiment has declined in France (from 51.2 to 49.9) and remained steady in other countries.
• Opinions on employment has decreased while costs and prices were globally on the rise over the month.

 

Germany: PPI (Jan.): -0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Prices have contracted further due to a large fall in energy prices.
• Prices of energy were sharply down (-3.2% m/m after -1.2% m/m prior month; -11.8% y/y) and a modest fall in consumer good prices (-0.2% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month; +1.8% y/y).
• On the opposite, prices of basic goods were up (0.9% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month) and of capital goods (0.6% m/m after 0.1% m/m).
• Yearly trend has declined further from -2.5% y/y prior month to -3.0% y/y.

 

Sweden: CPI (Jan.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final inflation was slightly higher than in first estimate. Core inflation was down by 0.4% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
• While services have less contributed to inflation, good prices were on a firmer trend, probably related to changes in weighing of the CPI basket.
• Yearly trend has slightly declined from 2.1% y/y to 2.0% and for core inflation from 2.3% y/y to 1.7% y/y.

 

UK: Retail sales (Jan.): 1.8% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Sales have surprisingly accelerated over the month; the rebound was broad based and also has included internet sales.
• Sales were highly volatile and quite depressed past months and begin the year on high pace.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Feb.): 52 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.8)

• Flash business sentiment has increased further over the month, while sentiment on new orders have slightly decreased, from 53.2 to 52.5.
• Sentiment was more positive on production and new export orders have regained towards the US, Europe and Asia.

 

UK: Services PMI (Feb.): 53.9 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 54)

• Flash sentiment in services has marginally decreased over the month, but the index remained high. New orders have strongly rebounded (from 52.9 to 54).
• Exports activity was stronger to Europe; sentiment has decreased on employment due to high costs and larger use of technology.

US: Trade balance (Dec.): -70.3 bn USD vs -55.5 bn expected (prior: -53 bn revised from -56.8 bn)

• Trade deficit has sharply increased in Dec.; ex-oil trade deficit has increased from USD -59.7 bn to USD -75.1 bn.
• Real exports were down by 1.7% m/m after -3.4% m/m prior month; exports were sharply down for industrial supplies (-12.3 % m/m after -8% m/m) while they increased for consumer goods (8.4% m/m after -12.9% m/m prior month).
• Real imports were up by 3.6% m/m after 4.2% m/m prior month; imports were sustained for industrial supplies (15.9% m/m after -5.6% m/m) and also strong for capital goods and autos.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Feb.): 16.3 vs 7.5 expected (prior: 12.6)

• Business sentiment has increased over the month and the 6-M index has also sharply rebounded (from 25.5 prior month to 42.8).
• Sentiment remained cautious on new orders, but new orders sharply regained in the 6-month views; opinions have decreased on prices.

 

US: Wholesale inventories (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inventories remained on modest rising trend; inventories in the auto sector have declined for another month (-0.4% m/m after -1% m/m prior month).

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb. 14): 206k vs 225k expected (prior: 229k revised from 227k)

• Continuing claims: 1869 k after 1852 k prior week.

 

US: Pending home sales (Jan.): -0.8% m/m vs 2% expected (prior: -7.4% revised from -9.3%)

• Sales remained under contraction after sharp fall the prior month.
• Only two over 4 districts have rebounded over the month.

 

Poland: Industrial production (Jan.): -6% m/m vs -3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Industrial activity has contracted for manufacturing while activity has rebounded in electricity-utilities sector.

 

Switzerland: Trade balance (Jan.): 3.6 Bn CHF (prior: 2.92Bn)

• Trade surplus has improved from the prior month; real exports were up by 3.6% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month; real imports were up by 1% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month.

 

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 85.7 (prior: 83.7)

• Consumer confidence has slightly regained from the prior month. Opinions have improved on financial situation while sentiment remained cautious about future purchases.

US: Durable goods orders (Dec.): -1.4% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 5.4% revised from 5.3%)

• Durable goods orders decreased over the month due a large fall in orders for civil aircraft. Orders for computers-electronics and fabricated metals were on a sharp rise over the month.
• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core orders) were up by 0.9% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Shipments were up by 1% m/m (-0.3% m/m the prior month) and shipments for core goods up by 0.9% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month).
• Inventories were up by 0.2% m/m for total and core orders.
• These data pointed to ongoing investment cycle.

 

US: Housing starts (Dec.): 1404k vs 1304k expected (prior: 1322k)

• Building permits have rebounded from 1388 k prior month to 1448 k.
• Housing starts have rebounded over the month for both single and multi-family houses; the increase in building permits was only centered on multifamily houses.
• Trend remained globally flat but monthly data were highly volatile past months.

 

UK: CPI (Jan.): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Prices have declined as expected over the month; the fall was coming from lower energy prices (-0.5% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month) and falling industrial goods (-1% m/m), household goods (-2.4% m/m) and clothes (-3.4% m/m).
• Services were also down over the month (-0.3% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month), with falling travel-transport and holiday packages over the month; the only significant rise was seen in medical, up by 2.2% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined as expected from 3.4% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y; core inflation was down from 3.2% to 3.1% y/y and services slightly down from 4.5% y/y to 4.4% y/y.
• Despite a modest decline in services, the way to more easing from the BoE is opened given downward trend in inflation, labor and wage growth.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (Jan.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.2%)

• The monthly rebound was due to rising prices of fuels (1.4% m/m) and materials (0.4% m/m).
• Yearly trend has declined from 0.5% y/y prior month to -0.2% y/y.

 

UK: PPI Output prices (Jan.): 0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)

• At output level, prices of energy were down over the month while prices of other sectors were modestly positive.
• Yearly trend declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.5% y/y.

 

France: CPI (Jan.): -0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final data have confirmed the monthly fall in prices. Prices of goods have decreased by 0.7% m/m, thanks to prices of clothes (-10% m/m); services prices were down by 0.1% m/m, due to falling transport prices (-7.9% m/m); food (0.5% m/m) and energy prices (0.8% m/m) were up over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 0.7% y/y prior month to 0.4% y/y.

US: NY Empire manufacturing (Feb.): 7.1 vs 6.2 expected (prior: 7.7)

• Business sentiment has decreased but less than expected from the prior month.
• Sentiment has decreased on new orders and shipments after their rebound the prior month. On the opposite, sentiment remained on the rise on employment and on inventories.
• In parallel, time of delivery has increased as well as prices received and paid.
• Despite a highly volatile index, underlying trend remained positive over medium-term.

 

US: NAHB housing market index (Feb.): 36 vs 38 expected (prior: 37)

• Sentiment in housing has decreased further from Dec.; opinions have declined on future sales and new demand.

 

Germany: CPI (Jan.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Final data confirmed initial monthly fall in inflation. The picture remained mixed at sector level: higher inflation over the month for food, petrol and education while prices have declined for clothes, leisure and household energy.
• The yearly trend has reaccelerated from 1.8% y/y prior month to 2.1% y/y.

 

Germany: Zew (Feb.): 58.3 vs 65.2 expected (prior: 59.6)

• Contrary to consensus, expectations have decreased over the month.
• Sentiment on current situation was less negative over the month, but expectations have decreased; despite this decrease, the index remained above the levels seen in 2025.
• By sector, confidence has decreased over the month on finance, autos and IT sectors, while sentiment has increased for steel, chemicals and electronic goods.

 

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Dec.): 5.2% vs 5.1% expected (prior: 5.1%)

• Claimant count (Jan.) up to 4.4% from 4.3% prior month. Jobless claims have increased from 2.7k to 28.6 k.
• Long-term unemployed has increased over the month.
• 3-M employment has decreased from 82 k the prior 3-M period to 52 k. Over the 3-M period, full-time workers have decreased while part-time and temporary workers have increased.
• Labor remained fragile and on downward trend.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Dec.): 4.2% y/y vs 4.6% expected (prior: 4.6% revised from 4.7%)

• Average wage growth has continued to moderate. Wage growth in services has slowed down from 4.7% the prior month to 4.2% y/y, which should please the BoE and validates a next rate cut.
• Across sectors, wage growth was firmer in manufacturing (4.4% y/y after 4.1% y/y) and in retail-hotels up by 5.5% y/y after 5.4% y/y.