Tägliche Makro-Analyse

Germany: IFO (March): 86.4 vs 86.3 expected (prior: 88.4 revised from 88.6)

• Business sentiment has weakened over the month with rising uncertainties on global economic environment.
• Sentiment on current situation remained stable, while expectations have decreased from 90.2 prior month to 86. This index was coming close to the lows seen in 2025 (index at 84.3).
• Sentiment has declined in all major sectors from manufacturing to services over the month.

UK: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.5%)

• Prices have accelerated over the month notably for seasonal food (0.6% m/m), clothes (0.6% m/m) and household goods (1.7% m/m).
• Energy prices were down (-0.5% m/m) and still down by 1% y/y; energy shock is ahead, and it will be seen in the March and April index.
• Services were up by 0.5% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month); transport and catering costs were on the rise over the month; nevertheless, services have slowed down on yearly trend: 4.3% y/y after 4.4% y/y prior month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.6% m/m and up by 3.2% y/y (3.1% y/y prior month).
• Yearly trend remained stable at 3% y/y; the current energy shock should push inflation higher over the next quarter (a 3.5%-4%y/y range could be seen on monthly data).

Spain: PPI (Feb.): -3.1% m/m (prior: 0.5%)

• Prices were down as energy prices have fallen by 10% m/m (prewar). Yearly trend has declined by 7% y/y after -2.8% y/y the prior month.

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (March): 100.7 (prior: 97.7)

• Confidence in manufacturing sector has increased over the month; separately, confidence has decreased for trade but increased for construction sector.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (March): 95.2 (prior: 96.3)

• Consumer confidence has eroded over the month, but the index remained close to still relatively high level.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q4-25): 1.8% q/q as expected (prior: 2.8%)

• Productivity has slowed down from Q3 to Q4-25 as activity has also slowed down (after downward revisions to GDP growth in second estimate).
• Output was up by 1.5% q after 2.6% in Q3-25; total wages were up by 6.3% q after 5.7% q.
• Unit labor costs have increased by 4.4% q after 2.8% q in Q3-25.

US: Manufacturing PMI (March): 52.4 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.6)

• Business sentiment has regained further over the month; new orders were on the rise as well as production: as delivery time has increased due to disruption in trade related to Middle East, firms have increased their demand to refuel inventories.
• Exports have stabilized and employment was marginally on the rise over the month.
• Costs have surged due to oil prices, transport and raw materials and selling prices have also increased in parallel.

US: Services PMI (March): 51.1 vs 52 expected (prior: 51.7)

• Sentiment in services has decreased from the prior month; views on new orders have decreased from prior month, as well as exports. Demand suffered from rising uncertainties due to the conflict in the Middle East.
• Employment has decreased; costs and selling prices have rebounded over the month.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (March): 0 vs -8 expected (prior: -10)

• Business sentiment has regained from the prior month; sentiment was less negative on shipments and new orders have rebounded while inventories and delivery time were on the rise.
• The 6-month index has decreased on lower shipments and new orders.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (March): 51.4 vs 49.6 expected (prior: 50.8)

• Flash business confidence was firmer than expected over the month; views on new orders have decreased over the month but the index remained above 50.
• Flash index remained quite stable for France (50.2 after 50.1 prior month), while it has increased for Germany (51.7 after 50.9), with new orders still on the rise. Probably German public spending help to smooth constraints from exports and Middle East crisis.
• Manufacturers mentioned longer delivery time related to Middle East and rising costs. Employment has been reduced and selling prices were on the rise but less than the rise in costs.

Eurozone: Services PMI (March): 50.1 vs 51.1 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Flash estimate has decreased more than expected over the month.
• Index for new business has decreased over the month from 51 to 48.4.
• Index has decreased for France (48.3 after 49.6 prior month) and Germany (from 53.5 to 51.2), with opinions on new business for the two countries coming lower than the prior month.
• While employment remained on a moderate rise, costs and prices have both accelerated over the month.

Poland: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 6.1% as expected (prior: 6.0%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month and the ratio is on a rising trend over the past months.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (March): 51.4 vs 50 expected (prior: 51.7)

• Business sentiment has decreased on flash estimate, but index remained above 50 level.
• Sentiment on new orders has decreased but remained above 50; delivery time has increased with disruption in transport and costs were sharply on the rise due to fuel, transport and raw materials costs.
• Employment was seen lower over the month facing higher costs. Prices were on the rise.

UK: Services PMI (March): 51.2 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 53.9)

• Sentiment in services has decreased more than expected; views on new business have declined and the index passed below 50 at 49.4 after 52.5 prior month.
• Foreign demand has collapsed with conflict in the Middle East; costs and prices were seen on a sharp rebound over the month.

US: Construction spending (Jan.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.3%)

• After a rebound the prior month, spending has reversed in Jan.; residential construction was down by 0.8% m/m (2.4% m/m prior month) and nonresidential construction was flat over the month (-0.5% m/m prior month).

Switzerland: M3 (Feb.): 4.9% y/y vs 5.1% expected (prior: 5.3%)

• M3 growth has paused over the month but the trend remained on the rise.
• M1 was up by 19.4% y/y after 19.2% y/y prior month; M2 was up by 13.6% y/y, after 13.9% y/y the prior month; saving deposits have increased but at a slower pace than prior months.
• Time deposits remained in contracting trend.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (March): 85 (prior: 85.7)

• Consumer confidence has decreased from the prior month due to lower confidence on future financial situation and economic growth; concerns about unemployment has increased over the month.
• Despite the monthly fall, the index remained at a high level

Poland: Retail sales (Feb.): -5.6% m/m vs -4.2% expected (prior: -17.8%)

• Sales remained highly volatile monthly; sales were solid for autos and fuels, while they decreased on textiles, food and health care products.
• Yearly trend was up by 5% y/y after 4.4% y/y (real terms) and offered a more stable trend; this sustained pace was fueled by purchases of autos, fuels and household goods.

Germany: PPI (Feb.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Prices have contracted over the month; energy prices were down by 1.8% m/m (-3.2% m/m prior month) and PPI ex energy were up by 0.2% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend remained in negative territory, down by 3.3% y/y after -3.1% y/y the prior month.
• Oil shock will reverse the past trend in energy prices and refuel upside inflation risks.