Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Oct.): 98.2 vs 98.3 expected (prior: 98.8)

• Small business confidence edged lower in October reflecting softer demand and lingering uncertainty.
• Slightly fewer respondents planned to create new jobs and many are still finding hard to fill openings.
• On a positive note, business owners expect credit conditions to improve and more see this as a good time to expand. Also, fewer owners reported supply-chain disruptions.
• The willingness to raise prices remains above average but is slightly down from September.

Germany: Zew (Nov.): 38.5 vs 41.0 expected (prior: 39.3)

• Current situation: -78.7 vs -78.2 expected (prior: -80.0)
• Investor confidence in Germany unexpectedly edged down in November with some investors doubting that the economic policy will tackle the structural problems.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Sept.): 4.8% y/y vs 5.0% expected (prior: 5.0%)

• Ex bonus: 4.6% as expected (prior: 4.7%)

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Sept.): 5.0% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.8%)

• Employment change 3m/3m: -22k vs +5k expected (prior: 91k)
• Payrolled employees monthly change (Oct.): -32k vs -3k expected (prior: - 32k revised from -10k)
• Today's releases shows that the UK labour market weakened in September and some indicators suggest that this trend continued in October.
• Today's data would support a rate cut from the BoE in December, but the bank will receive more important information (inflation, budget) before its decision.

Norway: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.4%)

• Inflation remained on a sustained monthly trend; prices have reaccelerated over the month on food, clothes, households’ goods and communication; core inflation was up by 0.6% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.6% y/y prior month to 3.3% y/y on headline inflation; core inflation has accelerated from 3.0% to 3.4% y/y.

Sweden: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.9% m/m (prior: 1.5% revised from 0.9%)

• Activity in industry was up by 3.8% m/m after 5.5% the prior month; in services, activity has contracted by 0.6% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month. Construction was up by 2% m/m after 5.2% m/m prior month.
• Separately, orders for industry have declined by 2.6% m/m in Oct. after 7% m/m the prior month.

Sweden: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.4%)

• Consumer spending is larger than retail sales and confirmed the positive current trend.

Turkey: Industrial production (Sept.): -2.2% m/m (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%)

• All sectors have contacted over the month except mining. Manufacturing production was down by 2.3% m/m after +0.8% m/m the prior month.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov.): 50.3 vs 53 expected (prior: 53.6)

• Consumer confidence has dramatically fallen over the month in preliminary data.
• Opinions on current situation and expectations have both fallen over the month and expectations index was back to its lows seen this year.
• Opinions have decreased on personal financial situation and concerns have increased about unemployment; sentiment has decreased about future activity and future purchases (cars and houses).
• Inflation expectations have increased at 12M from 4.6% to 4.7%, but the 5-10y expectations have decreased from 3.9% the prior month to 3.6%y/y.

Germany: Trade Balance (Sept.): 15.3bn EUR vs 16.7bn expected (prior: 16.9bn revised from 17.2bn)

• Trade surplus has decreased due to accelerating imports.
• Exports were up by 1.4% m/m (-0.8% m/m prior month), but imports have rebounded by 3.1% m/m (-1.4% m/m prior month).

Norway: Industrial production (Sept.): 3.4% m/m (prior: 1.3%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 1.7% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month). Except machinery and electricity sectors, all other major sectors have seen a contraction in activity over the month.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Oct.): -36.9 vs -35 expected (prior: -36.5)

• Consumer sentiment has decreased from the prior month; opinions were slightly less negative about the economic outlook but have deteriorated about financial outlook and on the willingness to buy major items.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

• Sales have contracted further, and prior month data were revised lower.
• Food sales turned flat over the month (0.4% m/m prior month) while non-food, auto fuel and special stores sales remained in modest contraction.
• Yearly trend remained positive (1.0% y/y), but it has weakened over the past quarters.

UK: BoE left key rates unchanged at 4.0%.

• The committee was highly divided with 4 votes in favor of a cut and 5 (including Governor Bailey) for no change.
• Risks on the outlook were more balanced, but the Committee preferred to wait for more data and probably the future decisions about the fiscal consolidation before decreasing rates further.
• Debate will continue about risks attached to future trend in inflation and labor and final decisions in Dec. meeting will depend on economic situation at year end.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Oct.): 3% as expected (prior: 3%)

• Ratio remained stable but unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

Sweden: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Flash estimates pointed to sustained monthly rise and resilient inflation trend.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 3.1% y/y over the month, but core inflation has accelerated from 2.7% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.

Germany: Industrial production (Sept.): 1.3% m/m vs 3.0% expected (prior: -3.7% revised from -4.3%)

• Industrial production has rebounded over the month, but less than expected by consensus.
• The rebound was driven by manufacturing: chemical, computer and IT and auto sectors were responsible for the positive reversal from the prior month.
• Activity was also strong in energy but weakened for construction over the month.

Spain: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded thanks to consumer goods and intermediate goods sectors over the month.