Tägliche Makro-Analyse
Mittwoch, Januar 07
US: rising confidence in services, but moderate ADP and weak JOLTS surveys.
US: ADP Employment change (Dec.): 41k vs 50k expected (prior: -29k revised from -32k)
- ADP survey turned positive, but fragilities remained in place and data came slightly lower than expected.
- Job creations were centered on medium-sized firms (34 k) and also in services (44 k), thanks to education-health and leisure-hospitality. Other sectors remained depressed and job creations were very limited for large and small firms over the month.
US: Services PMI (Dec.): 54.4 vs 52.2 expected (prior: 52.6)
- Business sentiment has accelerated further in services over the month.
- The improvement from the prior month was broad-based, and major components have regained such as: activity, new orders, inventories and employment.
- Prices paid have decreased over the month, but the index remained at a high level.
US: JOLTS Job Openings (Nov.): 7146k vs 7648k expected (prior: 7449k revised from 7670k)
- Job openings came lower than expected and also lower than the prior month.
- Openings and hirings have decreased over the month, pointing to ongoing lower demand from firms.
- Jobs openings have decreased from the prior month for several major sectors: trade-transport, education-health, and leisure-hospitality as well as the public sector. On the opposite, a rebound was seen in jobs openings for professional business services.
- In parallel, quitters and separations were slightly higher over the month.
US: Factory orders (Oct.): -1.3% m/m vs -1.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Defense orders (-11.3% m/m after 24.3% m/m the prior month) were mainly responsible for the fall in orders; orders for capital goods non-defense and ex aircraft were up by 0.5% m/m after 1.0% m/m the prior month, which remained positive for investment trend.
- Shipments were up by 0.1% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month) and inventories were flat over the month (-0.1% m/m prior month).
Eurozone: CPI estimate (Dec.): 2.0% y/y as expected (prior: 2.1%)
- First estimate has pointed to a 0.2%m/m rise, as expected, in monthly data (-0.3% m/m prior month).
- Energy prices were down by 0.8% m/m and good prices also down by 0.3% m/m, while services have rebounded by 0.7% m/m. Core prices were up by 0.3% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
- Yearly trend has declined from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.0% y/y and for core inflation from 2.4% y/y to 2.3% y/y.
France: Consumer confidence (Dec.): 90 as expected (prior: 89)
- Sentiment remained negative on future personal financial situation, but concerns about unemployment has slightly eased.
- Preference for saving has nevertheless increased further over the month.
Germany: Retail sales (Nov.): -0.6% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from -0.3%)
- Sales were heavily down over the month, but data remained volatile offering large revisions to past data.
- Over the month, sales of food, clothes and IT were down while furniture, health and internet sales were positive.
Germany: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)
- Unemployed has increased by 3k after 1k the prior month.
Italy: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Preliminary data pointed to mixed picture: rising prices over the month for transport and leisure, balanced by falling prices for hotels, clothes and food.
- Yearly trend has slightly accelerated from 1.1%y/y to 1.2% y/y.
Dienstag, Januar 06
PMI services: weaker in the US and Eurozone, marginally firmer in the UK
US: Services PMI (Dec.): 52.5 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 54.1)
- Sentiment has decreased in services over the month, but the index remained high.
- Views have moderated on new business and demand was seen as cooling as exports were weak.
- Sentiment has decreased marginally on employment; costs were on the rise due to tariffs and prices have also increased further.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Dec.): 52.4 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 53.6)
- Business sentiment in services has decreased over the month and came lower than in first estimates but the index remained above 50.
- Sentiment has decreased in Germany, France and Italy. New orders have declined in France and related index passed below 50.
- In Spain, sentiment has strongly rebounded (from 55.6 to 57.1) thanks higher new orders.
- Domestic demand was the main driver versus falling new exports; employment has improved while costs have increased significantly.
- Composite index (manufacturing + services) remained above the 50 level for Eurozone, Germany (51.3), France and Spain at 50 for France, pointing to ongoing moderate growth.
France: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)
- A strong rebound of prices of fresh food (1.4% m/m) was more than balanced by decreasing prices for manufactured goods (-0.3% m/m) and energy prices (-1.6% m/m) according to this first estimate.
- Yearly trend has declined from 0.8% y/y prior month to 0.7% y/y.
Germany: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.5%)
- According to first estimate, prices of clothes, fuels and household goods have decreased over the month while prices of services remained sustained (0.6% m/m).
- Yearly trend has declined from 2.6% y/y the prior month to 2.0% y/y.
UK: Services PMI (Dec.): 51.4 vs 52.1 expected (prior: 51.3)
- Sentiment was marginally up from the prior month, but it remained below expectations.
- Opinions on new business have strongly rebounded (52.4 after 49.8); sentiment on employment remained mixed while costs have increased further.
- Composite index has slightly decreased from 52.1 to 51.4 over the month.
Montag, Januar 05
ISM manufacturing (Dec.) lower than expected and remained below 50
US: ISM Manufacturing (Dec.): 47.9 vs 48.4 expected (prior: 48.2)
- Business confidence came lower than expected and lower than the prior month.
- Details offered a mix picture: sentiment has decreased for production and inventories, but it slightly regained for new orders (from 47.4 to 47.7), backlog of orders and employment.
- While PMI manufacturing has just slightly eased (from 52.2 to 51.8), ISM manufacturing (more export and large firms-oriented index) remained below 50 over the past months, pointing to ongoing fragilities on large exporters in manufacturing.
Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Dec.): 45.8 vs 49.6 expected (prior: 49.7)
- Business sentiment has deteriorated over the month contrary to expectations.
- All major sub-components came lower over the month such as output, prices, inventories and employment; the index was back to its Sept. level.
- Separately, the PMI services has strongly rebounded from 45.3 prior month to 52.1. All major sub-items have rebounded and were above the 50 level, except employment (up from 45.5 to 46.8).
UK: M4 (Nov.): 4.3% y/y (prior: 3.5%)
- M4 growth has accelerated to 0.8% m/m after -0.2% m/m; M4 lending was up by 4.8% y/y after 4.3% y/y prior month.
- Credit to consumer has also accelerated by 8.1% y/y after 7.5% y/y prior month.
- Mortgage approvals were up to 64.5 k after 65 k the prior month.
Turkey: CPI (Dec.): 0.89% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.87%)
- Inflation remained sustained over the month, but slightly less than expected by the consensus.
- Prices have re-accelerated for food, communication and hotels-restaurants over the month, but declined for clothes and transport.
- Yearly trend has declined from 31.07% y/y the prior month to 30.89% y/y and for core inflation from 31.65 % y/y to 31.08% y/y.
Dienstag, Dezember 30
US: a rebound in Chicago PMI business sentiment
US: Chicago PMI (Dec.): 43.5 vs 40 expected (prior: 36.3)
- Business sentiment has regained from the prior month and from very low level.
US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Oct.): 1.31% y/y vs 1.10% expected (prior: 1.39% revised from 1.36%)
- Prices were up by 0.32% m/m after 0.17% m/m prior month.
- Over 20 cities, a large range of trend in prices: districts of San Franciso and Chicago were at the top of the rise, and 10 cities offered positive trend in prices.
Spain: CPI (Dec.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)
- Flash estimates have pointed to stable monthly pace, but the yearly trend has declined from 3.2% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y.
- Lower fuel prices and moderate rise in leisure sectors have underpinned the decline in inflation trend.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (Nov.): 6% y/y (prior: 3.9% revised from 3.8%)
- Sales were up by 1% m/m after 0% m/m the prior month.
- Sales were strong for personal goods, health and in department stores over the month.
Switzerland: KOF (Dec.): 103.4 vs 101.4 expected (prior: 101.7)
- The business sentiment index finished the year at a high level, but in fact close to the index seen in Feb. (103.3).
- Sentiment has improved on production of intermediate goods, while firms remained globally cautious on orders and demand.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 8.6% (prior: 8.5%)
- Unemployed remained on a slow but regular rising trend.
Montag, Dezember 29
US: a rebound in pending home sales (Nov.)
US: Pending home sales (Nov.): 3.3% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 2.4% revised from 1.9%)
- Sales have rebounded in all the 4 districts over the month. The largest rebound was seen in West district, up by 9.2% m/m after -1.4% the prior month.
- Demand exists but is still constrained by interest rates and limited inventories.
Norway: Retail sales (Nov.): 1.3% m/m (prior: 0.1%)
- Sales were boosted by discount and Black Friday event. Sales were sustained on internet and for electronics and groceries too.