Tägliche Makro-Analyse
US: JOLTS survey lower than expected; eurozone March inflation on a strong rise but marginally less than expected
US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Jan.): 1.18% y/y vs 1.38% expected (prior: 1.43% revised from 1.38%)
- Prices were up by 0.16% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month); on a 3-month average, all major cities have shown positive yearly trend in prices.
US: Chicago PMI (March): 52.8 vs 55 expected (prior: 57.7)
- Business sentiment has decreased over the month; sentiment has increased on new orders and production while it has decreased on employment and inventories.
- Prices paid have accelerated further over the month.
US: Consumer confidence (CB) (March): 91.8 vs 87.9 expected (prior: 91 revised from 91.2)
- Surprisingly, consumer confidence has increased over the month; but the picture is mixed in details. The index was at low level, and it has slightly regained over the month.
- Sentiment on current situation has improved (index up from 118.7 to 123.3), while expectations have decreased (index from 72.6 to 70.9).
- Views on labor were slightly more positive on the short term, with some fragilities; expectations have improved on the 6-month horizon for activity but opinions on future employment have decreased.
- Willingness to buy autos and major appliances have increased over the month but decreased for houses.
- The 12M average inflation expectations have increased from 5.5% the prior month to 6.2% y/y.
US: JOLTS Job Openings (Feb.): 6882k vs 6890k expected (prior: 7240k revised from 6946k)
- Job openings came lower over the month, but prior month data were revised up.
- Job openings have decreased for trade-transport, education-health, leisure-hospitality and public sector, while they increased for business services.
- Hirings have sharply decreased over the month, from 5347 k prior month to 4849 k. A decline was seen in all major sectors.
- Separations and quitters have also declined over the month.
- Labor remained fragile with lower demand and lower hiring and separations.
France: CPI (March): 1.1% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Energy prices have strongly rebounded, being up by 8.9% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month) and they jumped from -2.9% y/y the prior month to 7.3% y/y.
- In parallel, prices of goods were up by 0.6% m/m (1.4% m/m prior month) while costs of services remained on a slow trend, up by 0.2% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month).
- Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.1% y/y the prior month to 1.9% y/y.
France: Producer Prices (Feb.): -0.2% m/m (prior: 0.5%)
- Prices were down by 2.4% y/y after -2.3% y/y prior month; these data referred to a pre-war situation in the Middle East.
France: Consumer spending (Feb.): -1.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)
- Spending was heavily down over the month, with all sectors except fuel-oil negative over the month.
- A reversal was seen for clothes, food and durable goods after a rebound in the prior month. Higher inflation and slower demand could weigh down on the outlook.
Italy: CPI (March): 1.6% m/m vs 1.8% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Inflation has surged on energy prices, but the monthly change stayed just below consensus expectations.
- Yearly trend remained stable at 1.5% y/y.
Eurozone: CPI estimate (March): 2.5% y/y vs 2.6% expected (prior: 1.9%)
- Inflation has accelerated by 1.6% m/m versus 1.8% m/m expected, after 0.6% m/m the prior month.
- Energy prices were up by 6.8% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month), and up by 4.9% y/y (-3.1% y/y prior month).
- Prices of goods were up by 1.7% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month; services were up by 0.3% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month); the yearly trend on services has slowed down from 3.4% y/y to 3.2% y/y.
Germany: Retail sales (Feb.): -0.6% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -0.9%)
- Sales have contracted further over the month.
- The largest fall was seen in food products, while purchases have increased for clothes, IT goods and furniture; internet sales were also positive.
Germany: Unemployment rate (March): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)
- Unemployed remained stable over the month.
- Over the past two months, vacancies have slightly increased after a long period of decline.
Poland: CPI (March): 1% m/m vs 1.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Preliminary data have pointed to sharp acceleration of inflation; energy prices were higher by 15.4% m/m (8.5% y/y) over the month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.1% y/y after 2.5% y/y the prior month.
UK: Nationwide house prices (March): 0.9% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Prices have strongly regained over the month after some weakness past months; yearly trend has also regained to 2.2% y/y after 1% y/y the prior month.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 8.5% (prior: 8.2% revised from 8.1%)
- Unemployed has increased over the month.
German inflation surged
Germany: CPI (Mar P): 1.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)
- German consumer prices accelerated to 2.8% y/y, propelled almost entirely by pricier energy, a pattern inferred from regional data, despite a sparse national breakdown.
- The print follows Spain’s rise to 3.3%, short of forecasts. France and Italy report on Tuesday, alongside a euro-area flash estimate seen at 2.6%.
Switzerland: KOF (Mar): 96.1 vs 101.1 expected (prior: 103.8 revised from 104.2)
- Switzerland’s barometer slumped in March, undershooting forecasts.
- The drop was broad-based: both production and demand weakened, signaling momentum is fading faster than expected.
- Manufacturing and external demand were hit hardest. Indicators for exports, order backlogs and the overall business climate registered sharp setbacks.
Eurozone: Economic confidence (Mar): 96.6 vs 96.7 expected (prior: 98.2 revised from 98.3)
- The decline in the ESI resulted from considerably lower confidence among consumers and retailers and, to a much smaller extent, services.
- Confidence in construction improved somewhat, while it remained broadly unchanged in industry.
- Among the largest EU economies, the ESI fell significantly in France (-3.7) and Spain (-2.4), and noticeably so also in the Netherlands (-1.5) and Italy (-1.3). The ESI remained broadly stable in Poland (-0.3) and Germany (-0.1).
Weakening consumer confidence in the US and the UK
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (March): 53.3 vs 54 expected (prior: 55.5)
- First estimate of consumer confidence came lower than expected and from the prior month.
- Index on current situation and for expectations have both declined from the prior month. Expectations index has weakened and pointed towards the lows seen during 2025.
- Sentiment has declined on household financial situation and economic outlook; prices are expected on the rise, as well as unemployment, interest rates and gas prices.
- Willingness to buy major items and autos has slightly decreased from the prior month, but it has increased about houses.
- 12M inflation expectations have increased from 3.4% prior month to 3.8%y/y; the 5-10y inflation expectations remained stable at 3.2% y/y.
Spain: CPI (March): 1.5% m/m vs 2% expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Preliminary data have pointed to a surge in inflation due to rises in oil prices. No details by sector were available.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.5% y/y prior month to 3.5% y/y (3.8% y/y expected in consensus), while core inflation remained stable at 2.7% y/y.
- Spanish government has decreased VAT on energy (from 21% to 10%) effective end of March.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (March): -21 vs -24 expected (prior: -19)
- Consumer confidence has decreased over the month, but less than expected by consensus.
- Opinions have decreased on future economic situation and about future major purchases; preference for saving has increased over the month.
UK: Retail sales (Feb.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.7% expected (prior: 2% revised from 1.8%)
- Sales have decreased over the month after a strong rebound in Jan.
- Sales have decreased the most for textile and household goods: these two sectors have partly reversed the large rebound seen in Jan.
Norway: Retail sales (Feb.): -1.1% m/m (prior: 0.9% revised from 1.1%)
- Sales have reversed in all sectors after a rebound in Jan.
Norway: Unemployment rate (March): 2.1% as expected (prior: 2.1%)
- Unemployed has slightly decreased over the month but trend in unemployment ratio remained stable.
Weakening consumer confidence in the eurozone
US: Initial jobless claims (March 21): 210k as expected (prior: 205k)
- Continuing claims: 1819 k after 1851 k the prior week.
Eurozone: M3 (Feb.): 3% y/y vs 3.2% expected (prior: 3.2% revised from 3.3%)
- Monetary aggregates growth has slowed down from the prior month; M1 was up by 3.1% y/y after 3.3% y/y while M2 remained on a stable trend, up by 3.4% y/y.
- Credit to the private sector has marginally slowed down from 3.1% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y. Loans to firms up to 1 year have accelerated, up by 2.3% y/y after 2.1% y/y prior month.
France: Business confidence (March): 97 vs 96 expected (prior: 97)
- Business confidence in manufacturing has decreased from 102 prior month to 99.
- Views have deteriorated about production, orders books, mainly foreign orders, while inventories were on the rise.
- Separately, confidence remained stable in services with a marginal rise in construction and retail sectors.
France: Consumer confidence (March): 89 as expected (prior: 91)
- Consumer confidence has decreased as expected over the month.
- Worries have increased about financial situation, standard of living and future purchases.
Germany: GFK consumer confidence (April): -28 vs -27.3 expected (prior: -24.8 revised from -24.7)
- Consumer confidence has decreased over the month; opinions have deteriorated about business and income expectations; concerns on future prices have increased and opinions on future purchases have decreased.
Italy: Manufacturing confidence (March): 88.8 vs 87.6 expected (prior: 88.5)
- Sentiment has decreased in the manufacturing sector, while it has slightly increased in construction but declined in retail.
Italy: Consumer confidence (March): 92.6 vs 95.6 expected (prior: 97.4)
- Consumer confidence has decreased form the prior month with a strong rebound in concerns about future economic situation.
Weakening German business confidence (IFO index) and still stable March UK inflation at 3% y/y
Germany: IFO (March): 86.4 vs 86.3 expected (prior: 88.4 revised from 88.6)
- Business sentiment has weakened over the month with rising uncertainties on global economic environment.
- Sentiment on current situation remained stable, while expectations have decreased from 90.2 prior month to 86. This index was coming close to the lows seen in 2025 (index at 84.3).
- Sentiment has declined in all major sectors from manufacturing to services over the month.
UK: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.5%)
- Prices have accelerated over the month notably for seasonal food (0.6% m/m), clothes (0.6% m/m) and household goods (1.7% m/m).
- Energy prices were down (-0.5% m/m) and still down by 1% y/y; energy shock is ahead, and it will be seen in the March and April index.
- Services were up by 0.5% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month); transport and catering costs were on the rise over the month; nevertheless, services have slowed down on yearly trend: 4.3% y/y after 4.4% y/y prior month.
- Core inflation was up by 0.6% m/m and up by 3.2% y/y (3.1% y/y prior month).
- Yearly trend remained stable at 3% y/y; the current energy shock should push inflation higher over the next quarter (a 3.5%-4%y/y range could be seen on monthly data).
Spain: PPI (Feb.): -3.1% m/m (prior: 0.5%)
- Prices were down as energy prices have fallen by 10% m/m (prewar). Yearly trend has declined by 7% y/y after -2.8% y/y the prior month.
Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (March): 100.7 (prior: 97.7)
- Confidence in manufacturing sector has increased over the month; separately, confidence has decreased for trade but increased for construction sector.
Sweden: Consumer confidence (March): 95.2 (prior: 96.3)
- Consumer confidence has eroded over the month, but the index remained close to still relatively high level.