Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: CPI (Feb.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inflation was in line with consensus expectations and has shown limited monthly pressures across sectors.
• Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m as expected and as seen the prior month.
• Prices of food were up by 0.4% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month), and energy up by 0.6% m/m after -1.5% m/m prior month); the rises in energy prices were due to fuel oil (11% m/m) and gasoline (+0.8% m/m).
• Good prices were up by 0.1% m/m (0% m/m prior month); just a few sectors have shown monthly rises probably due to tariffs (appliances, apparels), but balanced by flat prices of new cars and another decline in used cars (-0.4% m/m).
• Services were up by 0.3% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month); shelter costs remained moderate (0.2% m/m as seen prior month); prices were up for hospitals and airfares but balanced by moderate rises or some decline in other sectors.
• Yearly trend remained unchanged from the prior month for both headline inflation (2.4% y/y) and core inflation (2.5% y/y).

Germany: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Final data have confirmed a monthly rebound in prices; this move was driven by higher prices of clothes (1.6% m/m), rising oil-petrol prices (1.1% m/m) and firmer prices for communication and leisure goods; on the opposite, household equipment prices were down over the month.
• Yearly trend came marginally lower, from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.0% y/y.

Spain: Retail sales (real) (Jan.): 4% y/y (prior: 2.8% revised from 2.9%)

• Real sales were up by 0.1% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month.
• Monthly picture was mixed as sales were stronger for food, personal goods and online sales, while they declined for household goods and health sectors.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Feb): 98.8 vs 99.6 expected (prior: 99.3)

• Sentiment among US small businesses fell slightly for a second consecutive month, partly reversing the positive trend seen at the end of last year, but remains broadly stable by recent standards.
• Owners are increasingly worried about the outlook for sales and the economy, with the optimism index slipping. Pricing power is fading as the pace of price increases continues to weaken.
• The survey was conducted throughout February and does not yet incorporate the surge in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict.
• Looking ahead, a larger share of owners may raise selling prices to pass through higher input costs.

US: Existing home sales (Feb): 4.09M vs 3.88M expected (prior: 4.02M revised from 3.91M)

• Sales of previously owned American homes beat expectations in February, lifted by a fleeting improvement in affordability as mortgage rates dipped to a 3-year low of 6.09%, nudging more buyers to close deals.
• Yet the wider housing market remains subdued, with activity still far shy of its pre-pandemic cadence of roughly 5m-6m annualized sales, and a durable recovery likely contingent on steadier rate relief and more supply.

Germany: Trade Balance (Jan): 21.2bn EUR vs 15.4bn expected (prior: 17.4bn revised from 17.1bn)

• Germany’s trade surplus widened sharply as imports fell 5.9% m/m, outpacing a 2.3% drop in exports.
• The slump in shipments was concentrated in Europe: exports to EU partners fell 4.8%, including a 5.7% decline to the euro area and a 2.7% drop to non-euro EU members.
• Beyond Europe, the picture was mixed. Exports to third countries edged up 1%, buoyed by an 11.7% jump in sales to the United States, Germany’s largest market. By contrast, exports to the United Kingdom slipped 2.6%, shipments to China tumbled 13.2%, and sales to Russia fell 5.9%.

Germany: Industrial production (Jan): -0.5% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: -1.0% revised from -1.9%)

• Germany’s industry stumbled in January, dimming hopes of a quick rebound despite February’s uptick in the PMI.
• Manufacturing output fell 2.4% m/m (sa), partly offset by a 2.9% rise in construction and an 11.8% jump in energy.
• Factory orders plunged 11.1% m/m, but excluding volatile bulk orders they slipped just 0.4%, suggesting the underlying trend remains steadier than the headline.
• If energy prices keep climbing, input costs will rise further, threatening production and souring manufacturing sentiment.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Feb): -92k vs 55k expected (prior: 126k revised from 130k)

• Change in manufacturing payrolls: -12k vs -2k expected (prior: +5k)
• Unemployment rate: 4.4% vs 4.3% expected (prior: 4.3%)
• The payrolls decline was one of the largest since the pandemic, with broad-based weakness; the 3-month moving average fell to 5.7k in February.
• Manufacturing payrolls fell to their lowest level since January 2022 despite all the measures taken by the current and former Presidents. Construction jobs were down 11k in February after a 48k increase in January.
• The weather, strikes (explaining the decline in health-care employment) and methodology undoubtedly had a negative impact on today's figures, but this report tends to confirm the fragility of the labor market, which had been highlighted by other indicators.
• It would be wrong to put too much weight on one month of data, but this could undermine the Fed's latest view that the US labor market was stabilizing.

US: Retail sales (Jan.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• Ex auto and gasoline: 0.3% vs 0.2% (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.0%)
• Online retailers benefited from a 1.9% sales increase, which was notably offset by significant declines in autos (-0.9%, gasoline stations (-2.9%, reflecting a lower price) but also in several other categories such as health care, clothing, electronics and appliances.
• The only services category, restaurants, saw a 0.2% decline.
• Here as well, the weather has been a factor explaining part of the decline in consumer activity (and the surge at non-store retailers).

US: Average hourly earnings (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Y/y: 3.8% vs 3.7% expected (prior: 3.7%)
• Slightly above expectations but, since April, the y/y growth rate has fluctuated between 3.7% and 4.0%

Eurozone: GDP (Q4 T.): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• GDP y/y: 1.2% vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.4%)
• Slightly downward revision to GDP growth at the end of last year, but that is due to a larger-than-expected contraction in Ireland (-3.8% vs -0.6% previously reported) whose GDP is notoriously volatile due to the contribution of large multinational corporates.