Tägliche Makro-Analyse
Dienstag, April 15
Falling medium-term business sentiment in the US (NY Empire 6-month) and in Germany (ZEW expectations)
US: Empire manufacturing (April): -8.1 vs -13.5 expected (prior: -20)
- Business sentiment has improved over the month, being less negative.
- On current situation opinions were less negative on orders, shipments, and employment; prices paid, and prices received were on the rise.
- Nevertheless, the 6-month index has sharpy declined over the month; opinions have decreased on new orders, shipments and also on employment and capex; prices paid and received were also on a strong rise during the month.
- Uncertainties related to trade and economic policy continue to weigh down on medium-term business sentiment.
Eurozone: Industrial production (Feb.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.8%)
- Production of capital goods has rebounded while it decreased for energy and consumer durable goods over the month.
- Despite the rebound seen over the past two months, the index of production was just back to the levels seen in past Aug. and April 2024.
France: CPI (March): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Final data have confirmed the modest rise in monthly inflation.
- Over the month, prices have regained for food and clothes, while they sharply declined on energy (oil prices down by 3% m/m). Services were flat over the month, thanks to a decline in transport.
- Yearly trend remained stable at 0.9% y/y; several sectors have contributed to falling inflation: oil, health care, communication, and manufactured goods prices; on the opposite, prices of fresh food and services have shown yearly trend above the headline data.
Germany: Zew (April): -14 vs 10 expected (prior: 51.6)
- Sentiment on current situation has just turned slightly less negative (index up from -87.6 prior month to -81.2), but expectations have reversed and sharply decreased.
- Sentiment among financial community has declined with rising threats from the US tariff policy. The largest fall in sentiment over the month was seen in auto, steel, pharma, and engineering sectors.
Germany: Wholesale price (March): -0.2% m/m (prior: 0.6%)
- Yearly trend prices have declined from 1.6% y/y the prior month to 1.3% y/y.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Feb.): 4.4% as expected (prior: 4.4%)
- Over the Dec.-Feb. period, unemployed has increased, mostly for unemployed above 6 months and above 12 months, but the ratio remained stable.
- In March, continuing claims were up from 4.6% to 4.7%; jobless claims have increased from 16.5 k to 18.7 k. Vacancies remained on a medium-term declining trend (from 799 k the prior month to 781 k).
- Signs of weakness have developed in labor, ahead of major rises in labor costs.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Feb.): 5.6% y/y vs 5.7% expected (prior: 5.6% revised from 5.8%)
- Wage growth has moderated, and prior moth data were slightly revised lower.
- Over the month, wage growth has accelerated for construction and hotel-retail sectors, while they moderated in other sectors.
Poland: CPI (March): 0.2% m/m (prior: 0.1%)
- Final data have confirmed limited rise in monthly prices; while prices of clothes and communication have reaccelerated over the month, they declined on energy and transport sectors.
- Yearly trend was stable at 4.9% y/y.
Montag, April 14
Yearly trend in Swiss producer-import prices still negative due to declining import prices
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (March): 0.2% m/m (prior: 0.3%)
- Import prices were flat over the month (0.3% m/m prior month); producer prices were up by 0.1% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month).
- Yearly trend has regained for producer prices, from 0.2%y/y prior month to 0.3% y/y; import prices were still negative, down by 0.9% y/y after -0.8% y/y prior month. The combined producer-import prices remained negative at unchanged pace -0.1% y/y.
Turkey: Current account (Feb.): -4.41bn USD vs -4.4bn expected (prior: -4.0bn revised from -3.8bn)
- Deficit has increased over the month for goods and lower surplus from services.
- Official reserves have declined by USD 2.9 bn after a rebound of USD 6.4 bn the prior month.
Freitag, April 11
US consumer confidence down sharply
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (April Prel): 50.8 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 57.0)
- Current conditions: 56.5 vs 60.8 expected (prior: 63.8)
- Expectations: 47.2 vs 50.7 expected (prior: 52.6)
- According to this survey, consumer confidence fell more than expected to an almost 3-year low while inflation expectations surged to multi-decade highs: +4.4% over the next 5 to 10 years and +6.7% in the coming year.
- The expectations index fell to its weakest level since… 1980.
- The share of consumers expecting higher unemployment in the coming year rose to the highest since 2009 and consumer's outlook of the financial situation decreased to a record low.
US: PPI (March): -0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.0%)
- PPI y/y: 2.7% vs 3.3% expected (prior: 3.2%)
- Core PPI: -0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.1%); 3.3% y/y vs 3.6% expected (prior: 3.5%)
- The headline and core index came in well below expectations and the components relevant for core PCE were soft.
- This adds to evidence of muted inflation ahead of the tariffs implementation.
UK: Industrial production (Feb.): 1.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.9%)
- IP y/y: 0.1% vs -2.3% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -1.1%)
- Well above expectations, which can be partly explained by manufacturers building inventory in anticipation of US tariffs as UK goods exports to the US rose to the highest level since 2022 (+7% in February).
Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (March): -34.8 vs -32.0 expected (prior: -33.6)
- Lowest level in 4 months.
Donnerstag, April 10
US inflation (March) has declined more than expected
US: Initial jobless claims (Apr.5): 223k as expected (prior: 219k)
- Continuing claims: 1850 k after 1893 k the prior week.
US: CPI (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has declined from 2.8% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y; core inflation has declined from 3.1% y/y to 2.8% y/y.
- By sector, prices remained sustained over the month on food (0.4% m/m after 0.2% m/m); eggs prices remained on sustained trend, up by 5.9% m/m after 10.4% m/m prior month.
- Energy prices were down by 2.4% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and gasoline prices down by 6.3% m/m (-1% m/m prior month).
- Good prices were down by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month); prices of apparels (0.4% m/m) and new cars (0.3% m/m) have increased further while used car prices were down (-0.7% m/m).
- Services have moderated (0.1% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month): prices have moderated for shelter (0.2% m/m) and decreased in transport (-1.4% m/m, thanks to falling airfares); prices of medical care have accelerated over the month.
- Inflation has come lower than expected and the yearly trend has declined in Q1 as expected; prices could turn more resilient in the next quarter and re-accelerate above 3% due the rise in tariffs.
Italy: Industrial production (Feb.): -0.9% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: 2.5% revised from 3.2%)
- Industrial activity has decreased on all sectors over the month except for the energy sector. The largest fall was seen in durable goods, down by 4.2% m/m after 5% m/m the prior month.
Norway: CPI (March): -0.7% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 1.4%)
- Prices have decreased for housing and household goods, while they sharply rebounded for clothes. Core CPI was up by 0.2% m/m after 1% m/m prior month.
- The yearly trend has declined from 3.6% y/y prior month to 2.6% y/y; core inflation remained on a 3.4% y/y trend.
Sweden: Industrial production (Feb.): -0.2% m/m (prior: -1% revised from -0.8%)
- Activity has regained in industry (0.4% m/m after -8.3% m/m prior month) but it has decreased in services (-1.3% m/m after 2.7% m/m prior month).
UK: RICS house price balance (March): 2% vs 8% expected (prior: 11%)
- Expectations have decreased in housing; over the month, opinions about sales, future demand and prices have sharply decreased.
Turkey: Industrial production (Feb.): -1.6% m/m (prior: -2.6% revised from -2.3%)
- Production has contracted further in manufacturing and mining sectors over the month; on the opposite, energy sector was up by 3.5% m/m over the month.
Mittwoch, April 09
US wholesale inventories slightly disappointed
US: Wholesale inventories (Feb F): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- The final numbers for US wholesale inventories slightly disappointed. Meanwhile, the inventory-to-sales ratio decreased from 1.32 in January to 1.30 in February, indicating that sales are accelerating faster than inventories can keep up.