Tägliche Makro-Analyse
US durable orders: the capex cycle is still alive
US: Durable goods orders (March): 0.8% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1.2% revised from -1.3%)
- Orders were globally stronger than expected pointing to a still ongoing capex rebound.
- Preliminary data pointed to a strong rise on core orders (orders nondefense and ex aircraft) up by 3.3% m/m after 1.6% m/m the prior month.
- Orders were strong for defense (missiles), autos, computers, and machinery (AI related sectors) but decreased for civil aircrafts.
- Shipments were up by 0.7% m/m (1.6% m/m prior month) and up by 1.2% for core orders (1.3% m/m prior month).
- Inventories were up by 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month) and were flat for core orders.
US: Wholesale inventories (March): 1.4% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)
- Inventories were on the rise for machinery and for all inventories ex oil. Sales were also sustained (2.7% m/m) for all sectors.
US: Housing starts (March): 1502k vs 1380k expected (prior: 1356k)
- A strong rebound in single-family houses over the month; building permits have decreased from 1538 k to 1372 k with a decline in both single-family and multi-family houses.
Eurozone: M3 (March): 3.2% y/y vs 3.1% expected (prior: 3.0%)
- M2 was up by 3.1% y/y after 3.3 prior month and M1 was up by 4.6% y/y after 4.8% y/y prior month.
- Credit to the private sector was up by 3.2% y/y after 3.0% y/y the prior month.
Eurozone: Industrial confidence (April): -7.7 vs -7.0 expected (prior: -7.0)
- Business sentiment was lower than expected over the month and it has sharply decreased but the index remained relatively high vs 2024-25 period.
- Sentiment has deteriorated on future production, after a rebound in past month production; orders remained depressed and exports outlook has deteriorated as well as employment while prices were sharply on the rise.
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (April): -20.6 as expected (prior: -16.4)
- Confidence has sharply declined from the prior month and the index was back to the lows seen in 2022.
- Opinions have sharply deteriorated about past and future economic conditions on economy, employment and inflation.
Eurozone: Services confidence (April): 0.9 vs 3.0 expected (prior: 4.1 revised from 4.9)
- Sentiment in services has decreased and prior month data were revised down. The index remained relatively high compared to recent past period.
- Sentiment has decreased on activity, demand and employment while prices were on a strong rise.
Germany: CPI (April): 0.5% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 1.2%)
- Preliminary data came lower than expected over the month; no details were available, but the monthly rise was driven by energy-transport sector, while rises were also sustained for food and housing.
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 2.9% (3.0% y/y expected) after 2.8% y/y the prior month.
Italy: Consumer confidence (April): 90.8 vs 91.3 expected (prior: 92.6)
- Consumer confidence has decreased over the month; opinions have deteriorated on future financial situation and the economy.
Italy: Manufacturing confidence (April): 87.9 vs 88 expected (prior: 88.7 revised from 88.8)
- Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month, in parallel with falling demand in construction, services and retail sectors.
Spain: CPI (April): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.7%)
- Inflation remained sustained over the month in preliminary data. The monthly rise was driven by higher fuel costs.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.4% y/y to 3.5% y/y.
Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (April): 100 (prior: 100.3 revised from 100.7)
- Business confidence has decreased in the manufacturing and construction sectors.
Sweden: Consumer confidence (April): 91.5 (prior: 95.2)
- Confidence has decreased on global and personal situation.
Sweden: Retail sales (March): 3.1% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: -0.8%)
Sweden: GDP (Q1-26): -0.2% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- First estimate for Q1 GDP has pointed to lower growth than expected; declining exports and subdued domestic demand were reasons for this disappointing data; complete data will be published next month.
Norway: Retail sales (March): -0.1% m/m (prior: -1.1%)
- Sales have decreased for another month due to rising oil prices and higher mortgage.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (March): 8.1% vs 8.5% expected (prior: 8.4%)
- Unemployed has decreased over the month and participation rate has slightly increased.
US: business and consumer sentiment on the rise
US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Feb.): 0.90% y/y vs 1.12% expected (prior: 1.19% revised from 1.18%)
- Prices were up by 0.09% m/m after 0.16% m/m the prior month; among the 20 cities, 10 cities have seen a monthly contraction in prices versus only 3 cities in this case the prior month.
- The yearly trend in prices offered a wider range among the 20 cities from -5%y/y (Seattle) to +9% y/y (Cleveland).
US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (April): 3 vs 1 expected (prior: 0)
- Business sentiment has rebounded from the prior month; opinions have increased on new orders and employment but also on delivery time; views on capex have decreased from the prior month.
- The 6M index came lower than the prior month.
- Prices paid have increased but prices received have moderated from the prior month.
US: Consumer confidence (CB) (April): 92.8 vs 89 expected (prior: 92.2 revised from 91.8)
- Confidence has rebounded over the month thanks to a rise in expectations while opinions have eroded on current situation.
- Sentiment on labor has improved over the month; expectations have increased about future activity and employment.
- Willingness to buy autos and houses has regained from prior month but weakened on major appliances.
- Inflation expectations at 12M have stabilized at 6.1% y/y after 6.2% y/y prior month.
Italy: PPI (March): 5.9% m/m (prior: -0.8%)
- Yearly trend was up by 5.4% y/y after -3.7% y/y prior month.
Spain: Unemployment rate (Q1-26): 10.83% vs 9.8% expected (prior: 9.93%)
- Unemployment has surged over the quarter from multi year lows of the unemployment ratio.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (March): 4.1% y/y (prior: 2.3% revised from 2.2%)
- Sales were up by 1.2% m/m, driven by food, household goods and health sectors.
- Trend remained solid but headwinds (energy prices and slower job creations) could weigh down on consumption in Q2.
Brazil: CPI (April): 0.89% m/m vs 0.98% expected (prior: 0.44%)
- Monthly inflation has accelerated but less than expected by the consensus.
- Monthly changes have accelerated for food, transport-energy and health.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.9% y/y prior month to 4.37% y/y.
Weakening German consumer confidence
US: US Dallas Fed manufacturing
- Views on global activity have decreased but other components have improved such as company outlook, orders and shipments; the 6M index has also improved form the prior month.
Germany: GFK consumer confidence (May): -33.3 vs -30 expected (prior: -28.1 revised from -28)
- Consumer confidence has sharply declined over the month; sentiment has declined about business outlook, net income situation and future purchases.
- The index was back in the low range seen in 2022-2023.
Germany's business outlook down sharply
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (April F.): 49.8 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 53.3)
- Current conditions: 52.5 vs 51.0 expected (prior: 55.8)
- Expectations: 48.1 vs 47.7 expected (prior: 51.7)
- Consumer confidence was revised slightly up from the preliminary estimate, but it remains to a record low according to this survey.
- Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.7% over the next year, up from 3.8% in March. Yet, it rose to as much as 7.1% in May 2025.
Germany: IFO (April): 84.4 vs 85.7 expected (prior: 86.3)
- Current assessment: 85.4 vs 86.2 expected (prior: 86.7)
- Expectations: 83.3 vs 85.5 expected (prior: 85.9)
- The IFO index fell to its lowest level since May 2020, with all sectors down over the month, including construction despite the fiscal stimulus for infrastructure. This probably reflects concerns about higher interest rates rather than doubts about fiscal spending.
France: Consumer confidence (April): 84 vs 88 expected (prior: 89)
- Consumer confidence has deteriorated sharply (steepest deterioration since March 2022), tumbling to the lowest level since April 2023.
- The net percentage of people expecting higher prices has reached its highest level since April 2022.
UK: Retail sales (March): 0.7% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from 0.4%)
- Retail sales y/y: 1.7% vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.8% revised from 2.5%)
- Ex auto fuel: +0.2% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.4%); +1.7% y/y vs 2.0% expected (prior: 2.7% revised from 3.4%)
- Retail sales increased m/m in nearly all major segments.
- Stronger-than-expected consumption makes a near‑term Bank of England rate cut less likely.
Composite PMIs increased in the US and UK but slipped in the eurozone
US: Initial jobless claims (Apr 18): 214k vs 210k expected (prior: 208k revised from 207k)
- Jobless claims remain low and broadly steady, running below last year’s levels with little change between the survey weeks for the March and April payroll reports.
- Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, edged up for a second week, from a two-year low of 1.787m to 1.821m, but still sit below the 1.840m recorded in the comparable week a year ago.
US: Services PMI (Apr P): 51.3 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 49.8)
- New business edged up but stayed below the pace of the past two years as clients balked at affordability.
- Costs surged at the fastest rate since December, prompting the steepest rise in selling prices in more than 3 years. Employment ticked higher. The outlook improved modestly on the month, yet remains well below last year’s levels.
- The composite index rose from 50.3 to 52.0, beating expectations of 50.6.
US: Manufacturing PMI (Apr P): 54.0 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 52.3)
- Manufacturing climbed to a cycle peak, though some of the heat looks artificial, stoked by pre‑emptive buying ahead of price rises and shortages.
- Output hit a four‑year high; new orders grew at fastest since May 2022; and input inventories rose at the quickest pace since January. Supplier lead times lengthened the most since August 2022 less a sign of strong demand than Middle East related disruptions. The sole negative point: employment slipped for the first time since July 2025.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Apr P): 52.2 vs 50.9 expected (prior: 51.6)
- Manufacturing outperformed in April, expanding at its fastest since May 2022 and outpacing services, with gains across new orders, output and purchasing.
- But the burst looks fragile: much of the strength reflects inventory front‑loading ahead of war‑related price rises and looming supply snags, rather than sturdier demand.
- Inflation pressures intensified and business confidence slid to a 17‑month low, signs of renewed caution.
- Country split: Germany disappointed (51.2 vs 51.4 expected), while France beat forecasts with its strongest reading since 2022 (52.8 vs 49.5).
Eurozone: Services PMI (Apr P): 47.4 vs 49.8 expected (prior: 50.2)
- The Middle East conflict is increasingly weighing on the euro area. Services have slipped into contraction, revealing weaker demand than in manufacturing as households pare back discretionary spending ahead of a slowdown, while industry gets a temporary boost from stockpiling.
- The damage is broad-based. Germany’s reading fell to 46.9 (vs 50.4 expected) and France’s to 46.5 (vs 48.5), underscoring deterioration across the bloc’s largest economies.
- The composite index decreased from 50.7 to 48.6, below expectations of 50.1.
UK: Services PMI (Apr P): 52.0 vs 50.0 expected (prior: 50.5)
- UK private services sector output rebounded in April, but a fresh surge in costs dented optimism.
- Business activity growth picked up from March’s 11-month low but new orders slipped marginally, pointing to brittle demand as global uncertainty and the Middle East conflict stoke inflation.
- Price pressures intensified sharply. Input costs rose at the fastest since the data began in 1996, driven by dearer fuel and strong wage growth; firms lifted selling prices in response. Business sentiment weakened as geopolitics weighed on costs, demand and investment.
- The composite index rose from 50.3 to 52.0, beating expectations of 49.8.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Apr P): 53.6 vs 50.3 expected (prior: 51.0)
- Production snapped back and new orders ticked up as customers accelerated purchases and built safety stocks, bracing for rising prices and potential shortages. Pricing pressures intensified: input costs and selling prices surged on dearer raw materials and transport.
- Yet sentiment soured. Firms said that inflation, and geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains, sap consumer confidence and chill investment.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Apr): -25 as expected (prior: -21)
- UK consumer confidence fell to lowest since October 2023, in line with expectations.