Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: CPI (Dec): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• US CPI posts limited rebound from shutdown distortions as headline yearly prices remained at 2.7% and core remained at 2.6% below 2.7% expected.
• Inflationary pressures are primarily concentrated in the core service sector, with an increase of 3.0% y/y in December, in line with November’s 3.0% y/y reading.
• The core goods sector (ex-energy and food) experienced an increase of 1.4% y/y, in line with November’s 1.4% y/y increase and defied expectations of a rebound, likely explained by a slump of -1.3% m/m of Used Cars and Trucks. However, the category most sensitive to tariffs, household furnishings and supplies accelerated to 3.4% y/y from 2.6% y/y.
• There was a bounce-back in shelter costs: it increased by 3.1% y/y, higher than the 3.0% y/y increase recorded in November. The monthly reading was 0.4%.
• In terms of inflation outlook, the current report confirms the improvement recorded in November and provide additional reassurance to the more hawkish members of the Committee reinforcing the shift in focus toward labor market developments.

 

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Dec): 99.5 vs 99.2 expected (prior: 99.0)

• Small business sentiment improved in December, driven by brighter expectations for future business conditions.
• Inflation pressures showed signs of easing, with both actual and planned price increases moderating.
• However, labor market signals were mixed: hiring plans softened, but job openings remained high.

 

US: New home sales (Oct): 737k vs 715k expected (prior: 738k)

• Home sales slipped just 0.1% in October, far better than the expected 10.6% drop, after a 3.8% rise in September.

• However, downward revisions to summer data tempered the optimism. The median home price tumbled 8% y/y, weighed down by bloated inventories

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Dec.): -30.7 vs -33 expected (prior: -33.8)

• Sentiment has regained from the prior month and has rebuilt progressively over the past quarters.
• Opinions have improved about economic outlook, financial situation and willingness to buy items over the period.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Dec.): 50k vs 70k expected (prior: 56k revised from 64k)

• Unemployment ratio has decreased from 4.536% the prior month to 4.375%; payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment ratio has decreased more than expected.
• Payrolls were revised lower the prior month from 64 k to 56 k.
• Payrolls have contracted for good (-21 k after 18 k) and construction sectors (-11 k after 22 k).
• Services were up by 58 k after 32 k the prior month; within services, the picture is mixed across sectors: falling payrolls in trade-transport, professional business but rising for education-health, leisure-hospitality and in public sector.
• Wages were up by 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and up by 3.8% y/y (3.6% y/y prior month).
• Unemployment ratio came lower than expected (rounding at 4.4%) and the 2025 profile has been revised up, with small rises in past monthly data, which minors this current monthly fall in the ratio. Duration of unemployment has decreased this month while we saw a regular rise the past months.
• Finally, payrolls remained on a moderate/weak trend, and unemployment ratio is volatile but not showing a regular strong rise; these data should not generate a consensus at FOMC to ease key rates further in its January meeting, and the cut we expect for Jan. is clearly at risk given current data showing no urgent action needed from the Fed. These data raised questions for the economic policy, about the balance between strong growth and poor payrolls.

 

US: Housing starts (Oct.): 1246k vs 1330k expected (prior: 1306k)

• Data have increased over the month for single-family houses but sharply declined for multi-family houses.
• Building permits remained quite stable at 1412 k after 1415 k the prior month; only a marginal rise was seen in permits for single family houses.
• Housing starts remained globally at very depressed level, which could justify some specific support from the economic policy.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Jan.): 54 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 52.9)

• Preliminary data consumer confidence has shown an improvement from the prior month and from the lows seen in past Nov.
• Both sentiment on current situation and expectations have increased over the month, regaining from the Nov. lows.
• Sentiment has improved on household financial situation and business expectations have regained over the past month. Nevertheless, concerns remained on unemployment and rating approvals about the government action against inflation-unemployment have decreased again.
• Willingness to buy autos and houses have regained from the prior month.
• Inflation expectations remained quite stable over the month and have just moderately declined from the prior quarters; 12M inflation expected at 4.2% (4.2% prior month) and 5-10y expectations increased at 3.4% y/y after 3.2% y/y prior month.

 

France: Consumer spending (Nov.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.4%)

• Sales have decreased for food, autos, and energy while they increased for non-autos durable goods.
• Sales were flat on yearly trend after 0.6% y/y the prior month.

 

France: Industrial production (Nov.): -0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.3% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month; the rebound was driven by the auto sector (2.7% m/m after -4.1% m/m prior month), while production in other sectors has contracted over the month.

 

Germany: Industrial production (Nov.): 0.8% m/m vs -0.7% expected (prior: 2.0% revised from 1.8%)

• Production in manufacturing was up by 2.1% m/m (1.4% m/m prior month) while activity in energy and construction sectors has contracted over the month.
• In details, production has strongly rebounded for engineering and auto sectors over the month.

 

Germany: Trade Balance (Nov.): 13.1bn EUR vs 16.4bn expected (prior: 17.2bn revised from 16.9bn)

• Exports have decreased by 2.5% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month) and imports were up by 0.8% m/m (-1.5% m/m prior month).

 

Spain: Industrial production (Nov.): 1% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)

• Production has rebounded over the month for capital good and energy sectors, while they decreased for durable consumer goods.

 

Norway: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m (prior: 0.1%)

• Prices of household goods and communication have accelerated over the month, while they declined for food and clothes. Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m (- 0.3% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 3.0% y/y prior month to 3.2% y/y and core inflation from 3.0% y/y to 3.1% y/y.

 

Sweden: Industrial production (Nov.): 0.5% m/m (prior: -1.4%)

• Activity in the private sector was driven by services over the month.
• Production in industry was down by 0.1% m/m (-6.8% m/m prior month), while activity in services was up by 0.7% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month).

 

Eurozone: Retail sales (Nov.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0%)

• Sales remained on positive trend after upwards revisions to past month data.
• Sales of food and auto fuel were down over the month, while sales of manufactured goods remained on a positive trend (0.4% m/m, as seen the prior month).

 

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Dec.): 3% as expected (prior: 3%)

• Unemployment ratio remained unchanged in seasonally adjusted data while current data of unemployed have slightly increased over the month.

 

Brazil: CPI (Dec.): 0.33% m/m vs 0.32% expected (prior: 0.18%)

• IPCA monthly inflation has regained after a moderate monthly change the prior month; except housing, all other sectors have shown a more pronounced monthly rise.
• Yearly trend has declined from 4.46% y/y the prior month to 4.26% y/y.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Nov.): 2.5% m/m (prior: -0.7% revised from -0.8%)

• Production in manufacturing was up by 3.1% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month.

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan 3): 208k vs 212k expected (prior: 200k revised from 199k)

• Initial jobless claims edged slightly higher in the week ending January 3, but remain at a low level, while the increase in continuing claims to 1914k (+56k) suggests softer conditions, with laid-off workers taking longer to find new jobs.

 

US: Trade balance (Oct): -29.4 bn USD vs -58.7 bn expected (prior: -48.1 bn revised from -52.8 bn)

• The trade balance narrowed more than expected, with exports rising 2.6% and imports falling 3.2%.
• Goods exports grew 3.8%, driven entirely by gold, while the sharp drop in imports was led by pharmaceuticals as companies likely frontloaded drug imports in September, anticipating Trump’s tariffs on pharmaceuticals.

 

US: Nonfarm productivity (3Q P): 4.9% q/q vs 5.0% expected (prior: 4.1% revised from 3.3%)

• Preliminary data show productivity gains eased labor cost pressures, with unit labor costs falling at an annualized rate of 1.9% in Q3.

 

US: Wholesale inventories (Oct F): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• The final estimate met expectations.

 

Eurozone: Economic confidence (Dec): 96.7 vs 97.1 expected (prior: 97.1 revised from 97.0)

• Economic sentiment in the euro area dipped at year-end, falling from a 31-month high of 97.1. The decline was driven by weaker confidence among consumers (-0.3 points), services (-0.2 points), and retailers (-1.2 points). Industry and construction saw slight gains (+0.3 points each), though both remain at low levels.
• Among the bloc’s largest economies, sentiment dropped in Germany (-1.1), France (-0.9), Italy (-0.6), and Spain (-0.5).

 

Eurozone: PPI (Nov): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Producer prices rose faster than anticipated in November, driven by a 1.8% surge in energy costs. Excluding energy, industrial prices edged up by just 0.1%.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Nov): 6.3% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.4%)

• The euro area labor market showed resilience in November, with unemployment edging down as 71k fewer people were jobless. Notable declines came from the periphery, including Italy (-30k), Spain (-19k), and Greece (-14k).

 

Germany: Factory orders (Nov): 5.6% m/m vs -1.0% expected (prior: 1.6% revised from 1.5%)

• Germany's factory orders jumped in November, posting a third consecutive monthly gain and the fastest growth since December 2024, fueling recovery hopes.
• The rise was led by large-scale orders, though demand still grew by 0.7% excluding them.

 

Switzerland: CPI (Dec): 0.0% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Swiss consumer prices were flat in December, averaging 0.1% y/y in Q4, aligning with the SNB's December forecast.
• The increase was driven by higher domestic prices (up from 0.4% to 0.5% y/y), while the strong Swiss franc weighed on foreign prices (down from 1.9% to 1.6% y/y).
• We expect the SNB to keep its policy rate at 0% in the coming quarters, with no further rate cuts.
• A return to negative rates would require a sharp deterioration in the inflation outlook, likely triggered by a narrowing rate differential with the ECB and sustained CHF appreciation.