Ausblick 2025

Observers and investors were expecting the US dollar to go up in value. This was without counting on the new US administration’s erratic policymaking and announcements on tariffs. Where is it going next and what other factors are affecting the greenback?

The US–Europe relations prevailing since World War II are shifting.

Trump’s activism on the US economy is creating fears of recession. To navigate short-term turbulence, we have tactically scaled back our exposure to macro-sensitive assets, such as US equities, including US midcaps, along with high-yield and emerging-market debt, while increasing our allocation to gold.

US corporate earnings growth is slowing. Unless it picks up again, stocks will become overvalued.

In New York as well as other major metro areas, once-bustling corporate offices are now quieter, leading companies to adjust to a new reality: remote working is no longer a temporary solution but rather a structural shift. Consequently, corporates are actively reducing their office space footprints, significantly increasing vacancies in the sector.

At UBP, we think that silver is set to rise substantially over the coming weeks and months, reflecting large global inventory shifts and an increasingly compelling valuation profile.

A new player has shaken the AI industry. DeepSeek, until recently a little-known Chinese start-up has launched DeepSeek-R1, a low-cost AI model challenging OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which is a stark reminder that the US is no longer the only competitor in the global AI race.

The post-election fiscal tightening in 2024, coupled with persistent inflationary pressures, has cast a shadow over India’s economy.

Gold can continue to rise above levels of USD 3,000 per oz this year, as supported by several factors.