新闻中心/瑞联卓见

The global economy remains resilient despite negative momentum in Q1 & Q2. UBP’s economists Patrice Gautry and Carlos Casanova take a tour of the macro scenario around the world.

Norman Villamin, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Wealth Management, and Patrice Gautry, UBP Chief Economist, hosted a special webinar to discuss the investment implications of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The Chinese economy is facing headwinds leading into 2022, including: 1) Ongoing regulatory crackdown; 2) Exposure to COVID outbreaks; 3) A slump in the housing sector; and 4) Power shortages over the winter months.

Tighter rules have led to rapid deleveraging in China’s housing sector. Embattled real-estate developer Evergrande’s situation has sent shock waves through the credit market. The company’s default looks manageable but could become a systemic issue if the authorities do not facilitate an orderly default.

Asian markets are being slow to emerge from lockdown, despite the rest of the world gradually opening up its economies again. The reasons for this have much to do with low vaccination rates, but also with governance. A growth gap between developed and emerging markets is beginning to appear.

Asia Macro - The Olympics will take place despite the State of Emergency (SOE) being extended until August 23. International spectators have been banned and consumer sentiment remains subdued, with few people supporting the event.

Asia Macro - India is experiencing a fresh wave of COVID-19, with the daily number of confirmed cases increasing exponentially to 400,000 in May. Moreover, the new variant strain was labelled a “global health risk” by the WHO.

Asia Macro - China: Domestic demand takes over for the next leg of the recovery

Asia Macro - A transformative shift towards self-sufficiency

Asia Macro - On a GDP-weighted basis, Asia is expected to expand by 6.6% in 2021, up from a -1.0% contraction in 2020.

The economy is set to rebound in 2021, leading the global economic recovery once again. 

Bond defaults were not part of the debate for much of 2020. However, these have picked up steam in Q4-20, resulting in a record level of USD 21.8 billion YTD, far exceeding the previous high of 2018.