每日宏观动态

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Jan.): 99.3 vs 99.8 expected (prior: 99.5)

• Business sentiment has slightly decreased for small firms contrary to consensus expectations.
• Sentiment remained positive on future sales but turned more cautious on other items (future economy) and uncertainty was on the rise over the month.

US: Employment cost index (Q4-25): 0.7% q/q vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Employment cost has increased but at a slower pace than expected and from the prior quarter.
• Costs in good producing were up by 0.6% q/q (1.0% q/q the prior quarter) and up in services by 0.8% q/q (same pace as in Q3-25).
• Wages were up by 0.7%q/q after 0.8% q/q the prior quarter; the pace was broad based across sectors, except a higher pace seen in education (2.1%q) and leisure (1.0% q/q).

US: Retail sales (Dec.): 0% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Sales were weaker than expected over the month, but represented a pause after strong numbers seen in Nov. and also sustained sales in specific sectors in Oct.
• Sales have increased for food, building materials, sport, and gasoline stations; they decreased for autos, furniture, electronic goods and clothes. Sales ex autos, building materials, gasoline and food were down by 0.1% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Sales were strong in Nov. and were also boosted by internet sales (clothes, sport goods) in Oct.; momentum in sales has shifted from traditional year-end sales to specific discount days (Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Amazone days...); if these sales numbers are not indicative of a new trend, they pointed to highly volatile sales across sectors; while refunding from Treasury could refuel momentum in sales, notably for high tax payers, labor support could be justified to secure consumption trend, notably for low-wages categories.

US: Business inventories (Nov.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Inventories have decreased for autos but increased for general merchandises over the month.
• Sales have increased, up by 0.6% m/m after -0.2% m/m the prior month.

France: Unemployment rate (Q4-25): 7.7% vs 7.5% expected (prior: 7.5%)

• The unemployment ratio has increased at year end, particularly for 15–24-year categories.

Norway: CPI (Jan.): 0.6% m/m (prior: 0.1%)

• Inflation has reaccelerated over the month due to prices of rents, cars and electricity; core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.1% prior month to 3.6% y/y, and from 3.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y on core inflation.

Sweden: Industrial production (Dec.): 1.6% m/m (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.5%)

• Activity has rebounded in Dec.: production in industry was up by 5.1% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month and up in services by 0.8% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.

Sweden: Retail sales (Dec.): -3.7% m/m (prior: 3.0% revised from 1%)

• Household consumption has contracted in Dec; yearly trend has slowed down from 4.6% y/y prior month to 0.5% y/y.

Brazil: CPI (Jan.): 0.33% m/m vs 0.32% expected (prior: 0.33%)

• Monthly inflation has accelerated in several sectors such as: transport, health, personal goods and communication; prices decreased for housing and clothes over the month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 4.26% y/y prior month to 4.44% y/y.

Turkey: Industrial production (Dec.): 1.2% m/m (prior: 2.5%)

• Production in manufacturing was up by 1% m/m after 3.1% m/m prior month, while activity in utility has rebounded by 4.1% m/m after -0.4% m/m the prior month.

Norway: GDP Mainland (Q4-25): 0.4% q/q as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Activity has accelerated at year-end; consumption was up by 1%q due to strong purchases of autos (ahead of changes in VAT). Investment was in sharp rebound, up by 7.2%q, due to defense spending in several sectors.
• Net trade had negative contribution, due to a strong rise in imports (due to autos) despite exports were strong (3.6%q).
• Inventories contribution was negative over the quarter.
• Growth reached 1.8% in 2025 and a 1.5%-1.7% range is expected in 2026.

Norway: PPI incl. Oil (Jan.): 8.9% m/m (prior: -1.5%)

• Yearly trend has rebounded from -11.4% y/y prior month to -7.8% y/y.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Jan.): -30.1 vs -29.5 expected (prior: -30.7)

• Consumer sentiment has slightly increased over the month, but slightly less than expected.
• Compared to prior month, opinions were stable about the economic outlook, have improved on financial situation and were more constructive on future purchases.
• The index is on a slow rebuilding process.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Feb): 57.3 vs 55.0 expected (prior: 56.4)

• Consumer confidence has climbed to its highest level in six months, rebounding from a dip in late 2025. Americans are feeling more optimistic about both current and future economic conditions. Notably, one-year inflation expectations dropped from 4.0% to 3.5%, while long-term expectations (5-10 years) remained steady at 3.5%.
• The rise in sentiment was particularly strong among stockholders, buoyed by the S&P 500 nearing record highs during the survey period. This market rally lifted perceptions of personal financial health to a four-month peak.
• However, concerns linger over the job market and the ongoing impact of inflation on household finances, tempering the broader optimism.

Germany: Industrial production (Dec): -1.9% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.8%)

• Germany’s industrial sector stumbled at the close of 2025, with factory output falling 1.9% in December. Yet, the outlook for 2026 has brightened dramatically. New orders surged by 7.8% (the strongest jump in two years) and the business climate improved recently, signaling robust demand ahead.

Germany: Trade Balance (Dec): 17.1bn EUR vs 14.1bn expected (prior: 13.6bn revised from 13.1bn)

• Despite a year-on-year decline in overall trade with the US amid ongoing tariff wars, Germany maintained a robust monthly trade surplus of €17.1 billion. This was bolstered by an 8.9% surge in shipments to the US, defying the broader trend.

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan. 31): 231k vs 212k expected (prior: 209k)

• Continuing claims: 1844 k after 1819 k the prior week.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Dec.): 6542k vs 7250k expected (prior: 6928k revised from 7146k)

• Demand for jobs has sharply declined and came lower than expected. Job openings have decreased in retail-transport, business services and education-health sectors; on the opposite, they increased for leisure-hospitality and the public sectors.
• Hirings have increased (from 5121 prior month to 5293), mainly driven by the trade-transport and leisure sectors.
• Separations and quitters have increased over the month.
• Ther are still large swings in demand for jobs over past months and across sectors. This could point to ongoing fragilities in labor.

UK: The BoE left key rates unchanged at 3.75%

• The vote was tight 5-4, with dissenters in favor of a 25 bp cut.
• Growth outlook has been revised down for 2026 from 1.25% to 0.9% as well as 2027, from 1.6% to 1.5%.
• Inflation is expected to go back to 2% in April.
• An easing bias has been officially mentioned, in favor of new cuts in the next meetings, in line with our scenario.

The ECB kept rates unchanged as expected at 2%.

• The statement was slightly more positive on growth, but risks remained large and could impact global demand.
• Risks look now globally balanced; this was source of debate in the Committee about risks on growth versus risks on inflation. Nevertheless, Lagarde mentioned that inflation is “in a good place”, but pointing to still different contribution from sectors; the bank expects slower wage growth in parallel in order to be more comfortable on the inflation pattern.
• The low inflation pattern (1.7% y/y in Jan.) was already integrated in the ECB forecasts and was not a surprise.
• The ECB has discussed about the strength of the euro but mentioned it is already integrated in its forecasts.
• The ECB is in favor of a strong international EUR, but more progress must be made regarding liquidity in the repo market.
• Ahead of the next EU summit, the ECB sent a check list to EU leaders of the main reforms to implement to strengthen the euro area.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Dec.): -0.5% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Purchases of goods were down by 1.2% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Despite improving confidence, sales remained volatile and on a moderate trend (1.3% y/y).

France: Industrial production (Dec.): -0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.1%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 0.8% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.
• Within sectors, transport production was down due to aircraft, and utilities also down over the month; production in autos and food sectors was on rebound over the month.

Germany: Factory orders (Dec.): 7.8% m/m vs -2.2% expected (prior: 5.7% revised from 5.6%)

• Domestic orders were up by 10.7% m/m after 6.4% m/m; a strong rebound has been shown since past October.
• Foreign orders were up by 5.6% m/m after 5.2% m/m the prior month.
• Orders for intermediate and capital goods have shown a strong rebound while they have contracted for consumer goods.
• Domestic orders are on a strong recovery which bodes well for growth in German industry.