每日宏观动态

US: Construction spending (Jan.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.3%)

• After a rebound the prior month, spending has reversed in Jan.; residential construction was down by 0.8% m/m (2.4% m/m prior month) and nonresidential construction was flat over the month (-0.5% m/m prior month).

Switzerland: M3 (Feb.): 4.9% y/y vs 5.1% expected (prior: 5.3%)

• M3 growth has paused over the month but the trend remained on the rise.
• M1 was up by 19.4% y/y after 19.2% y/y prior month; M2 was up by 13.6% y/y, after 13.9% y/y the prior month; saving deposits have increased but at a slower pace than prior months.
• Time deposits remained in contracting trend.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (March): 85 (prior: 85.7)

• Consumer confidence has decreased from the prior month due to lower confidence on future financial situation and economic growth; concerns about unemployment has increased over the month.
• Despite the monthly fall, the index remained at a high level

Poland: Retail sales (Feb.): -5.6% m/m vs -4.2% expected (prior: -17.8%)

• Sales remained highly volatile monthly; sales were solid for autos and fuels, while they decreased on textiles, food and health care products.
• Yearly trend was up by 5% y/y after 4.4% y/y (real terms) and offered a more stable trend; this sustained pace was fueled by purchases of autos, fuels and household goods.

Germany: PPI (Feb.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Prices have contracted over the month; energy prices were down by 1.8% m/m (-3.2% m/m prior month) and PPI ex energy were up by 0.2% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend remained in negative territory, down by 3.3% y/y after -3.1% y/y the prior month.
• Oil shock will reverse the past trend in energy prices and refuel upside inflation risks.

US: Initial jobless claims (March 14): 205k vs 215k expected (prior: 213k)

• Continuing claims: 1857 k after 1847 k prior week.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (March): 18.1 vs 8 expected (prior: 16.3)

• Business sentiment has rebounded over the month.
• Sentiment has decreased on new orders but regained on shipments, delivery time, employment and on prices.
• The 6-month index has eroded from very high level (index at 40 after 42.8 prior month). Opinions decreased on new orders and prices but were firmer on shipments, employment, and capex.

US: New home sales (Jan.): 587k vs 722k expected (prior: 712k revised from 745k)

• Sales have decreased in all the 4 major districts. Inventories were on the rise and average prices were down by 5.9% m/m.

US: Wholesale inventories (Jan.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Inventories have increased for non-durable goods, autos, and computers; global sales were up by 0.5% m/m (1.3% m/m the prior month) and driven by autos and computers.

ECB meeting: no change in key rates as expected

• Communication was well balanced, pointing on that monetary policy is well positioned to face adverse shocks. The tone was more balanced than hawkish, after hawkish communication from several governors in the prior weeks.
• The communication insisted on the high level of uncertainties related to situation in the Middle East; the ECB expects higher energy prices and some rise in inflation and lower growth in the future. Uncertainty remained fueled by intensity, duration, and spillover effects of the conflict.
• Lagarde renewed that decision will be data dependent and taken meeting by meeting.
• The ECB has updated its base case scenario and will publish alternative scenarios based on oil prices and duration of the war.
• The central scenario has seen lower growth and higher inflation for 2026, already including some tensions in energy prices (11 March ref.): GDP was revised down for 2026 at 0.9% (from 1.2%) and for 2027 at 1.3% (from 1.4%); core inflation was revised up for 2026 from 2.2% to 2.3%, and for 2027 from 1.9% to 2.2%.
• Balance of risk has deteriorated on growth and risks have increased for inflation. The ECB will follow the risks from the war and second round effects on inflation expectations (firms and markets). The ECB fears economic agents to react this time as seen in 2022 and to raise selling prices and expectations in parallel with oil shock.
• The ECB has developed different scenarios about geopolitical situation and impacts on growth and inflation debated during the meeting (to be released after the meeting).

The Bank of England delivered a hawkish hold at its March meeting, warning it stands ready “to act as necessary” to keep inflation in check.

• The committee released no new forecasts, but its minutes offered an early take on the energy-price turmoil: it now expects March’s CPI to come in around 3.5%, up from February’s 3.0% projection.
• The committee also expects inflation to hover between 3% and 3.5% over the next couple of quarters.
• The decision was unanimous (9–0), wrong-footing a consensus that had anticipated a 7–2 split.
• Traders began to consider the consequences of the desire by the MPC to avoid the possibility of second-round inflation effects. Gilts sold off sharply, with the two-year yield rising as much as 37 basis points, while sterling money markets priced in 67 basis points of tightening in the policy rate.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jan.): 5.2% vs 5.3% expected (prior: 5.3%)

• Claimant count has increased from 4.3% to 4.4% over the month. Jobless claims have increased in Feb. from 4.7 k to 24.7 k. Employed has increased by 20 k after 6 k the prior month.
• Labor seemed to stabilize but the situation remained fragile, and risks are still pointing towards higher unemployment ratio in the next quarters.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Jan.): 3.9% y/y as expected (prior: 4.2%)

• Wage growth has slowed down further. The slowdown was broad based across sectors; in services, wage growth has slowed down to 4.1% y/y after 4.3% y/y prior month.

The SNB left key rates unchanged as expected at 0%

• The statement pointed on high level of uncertainties related to the Liddel East. The SNB has reaffirmed its willingness to intervene in the FX given the conflict.
• Inflation has been revised up for 2026 from 0.3% y/y to 0.5% y/y due to the expected rise in energy prices; the 2027 inflation has been revised lower, from 0.6 to 0.5%.

Switzerland: Trade balance (Feb.): 4.45 Bn CHF (prior: 3.46Bn)

• Real exports were down by 0.3% m/m after 7.2% m/m prior month; real imports were down by 5.1% m/m after 2.3% m/m the prior month.

Poland: Industrial production (Feb.): 2.7% m/m vs 2.5% expected (prior: -6%)

• Activity has rebounded in mining and manufacturing sector over the month.
• Yearly trend has rebounded up by 1.5% y/y after -1.5% y/y prior month.

Poland: PPI (Feb.): 0.1%m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Over the month, prices have regained for manufacturing but declined in mining and electricity.
• Yearly trend has increased from -2.6% y/y prior month to -2.3% y/y.

US: PPI (Feb.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Food and energy have driven PPI higher over the month.
• Food prices were up by 2.5% m/m (prices of eggs in strong rebound); energy prices were up by 2.3% m/m due to gas, gasoline and diesel fuel costs (conflict impact); this has also an impact on costs of truck transport in the monthly data.
• Good prices were up by 0.3% m/m and services up by 0.5% m/m.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.9% y/y prior month to a strong 3.4% y/y.

US: Factory orders (Jan.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.7%)

• Orders for capital goods non-defense and ex aircraft were up by 0.1% m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month.
• Orders for defense sectors were down over the month, but non-defense orders were up by 0.9% m/m.
• Shipments were up by 0.5% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and inventories remained on a regular trend up by 0.1% m/m.

Eurozone: CPI (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Final data pointed to slightly more moderate monthly rise in prices from the initial estimates, but still in a rebound from the prior month.
• Prices of services have regained over the month, up by 0.8% m/m after -0.4% m/m the prior month; services remained on high trend at 3.4% y/y.
• Good prices have also rebounded, up by 0.7% m/m (-2.4% m/m prior month) and up by 0.7% y/y.
• Energy prices were up by 0.6% m/m and food prices up by 0.3% m/m.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.7% y/y prior month to 1.9% y/y and core inflation from 2.2% y/y to 2.4% y/y. Food and services remained the main drivers of the yearly inflation.