每日宏观动态

UK: CPI (Oct.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• CPI y/y: 2.3% vs 2.2% expected (prior: 1.7%)
• Core CPI y/y: 3.3% vs 3.1% expected (prior: 3.2%)
• CPI inflation re-accelerated to 2.3% in October due to the energy boost (+0.45pp to the y/y change), which was expected.
• The upside surprises mainly came from core goods and some volatile segments of services such as airfares and hotels.
• Importantly, core service inflation continued to ease.
• The Bank of England will continue to lower interest rates in 2025, but the timing has become more uncertain, as has a cut in December.

Germany: PPI (Oct.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.5%)

• PPI y/y: -1.1% vs -1.0% expected (prior: -1.4%)
• Producer price inflation have been negative since July 2023, with a bottom at -9.1% in September 2023.

US: Housing starts (Oct.): 1311k vs 1334k expected (prior: 1353k revised from 1354k)

• Housing starts came below consensus, with differences in single family and multifamily starts. Single family has decreased by 7% m/m (from 1042 to 970 k) while multifamily starts have regained by 9.6% m/m (from 311 k to 341 k).
• Building permits have also decreased from 1425 k the prior month to 1416 k: multifamily permits have decreased the most while a rebound was seen in permits for single family constructions.
• Data remained weak after a large rebound in Aug., and hurricanes have probably added some distortion (large fall in South and Northeast districts) over the past months.

Eurozone: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Final data have confirmed the monthly rebound, driven by food (0.7% m/m) and goods (0.7% m/m); core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 2% y/y from 1.7% y/y prior month and remained stable on core inflation at 2.7% y/y. Services were back to 4% y/y (3.9% y/y the prior two months). The ECB will probably not accelerate its rate cuts, keeping the 25 bp reduction pace at regular meetings in place.

Switzerland: Trade balance (Oct.): 8.06 Bn CHF (prior: 4.94Bn)

• Real exports were up by 11.2% m/m after -2.3% m/m prior month; real imports were up by 0.7% m/m as the prior month.

US: NAHB housing market index (Nov.): 46 vs 42 expected (prior: 43)

• The sentiment of professionals in housing has rebounded over the month.
• All sub-indices have regained and the sentiment on future sales has surged from the prior month; prospects of lower rates and more favourable regulatory rules have boosted the future demand.

US: Retail sales (Oct): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.4%)

• Retail sales rose in October, driven by robust gains in electronics and appliance stores (+2.3% m/m) and auto dealers (+1.9% m/m). However, declines were observed in miscellaneous store retailers (-1.6% m/m) and furniture stores (-1.3% m/m).
• Sales excluding food services, auto dealers, building materials, and gasoline stations, fell by 0.1%, following their strongest monthly increase since early 2023.
• Despite this, control-group sales climbed at an annualized pace of 4.6% over the past three months. This suggests that the economy maintained solid momentum as the year the year drew to a close, following a strong third quarter.
• Upward revisions to previous months indicate consumers entered the holiday season with considerable strength, signaling the potential for a robust shopping period. Coupled with firm inflation data earlier this week, the figures are likely to reinforce the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on cutting interest rates further.

US: Empire manufacturing (Nov): 31.2 vs 0.0 expected (prior: -11.9)

• Manufacturing activity in the New York region surged in early November, fueled by sharp increases in new orders and shipments.
• As the first regional manufacturing survey released after the U.S. election, the results provide an early glimpse into the sector’s momentum. However, many respondents likely submitted their responses before the election results were finalized, limiting the immediate impact of political developments on the data.

US: Import price index (Oct): 0.3% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.4%)

• US import prices rose by 0.3% in October, reversing part of the 0.4% decline recorded in September, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase was driven by higher prices for both fuel and nonfuel imports. 
• Meanwhile, export prices saw a sharper rebound, climbing 0.8% in October after a 0.6% decline in the previous month.

US: Industrial production (Oct): -0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.3%)

• Industrial production in the US declined in October, weighed down by a combination of labor strikes and weather-related disruptions. A major aircraft producer's strike reduced overall output by 0.3 pp in September and 0.2 pp in October. Additionally, Hurricane Milton and residual effects from Hurricane Helene shaved another 0.1 pp from October’s growth. 
• Manufacturing output, which accounts for 78% of total industrial production, fell by 0.5%, following a 0.3% decline in September. In contrast, mining output edged up by 0.3%, and utility production increased by 0.7%, offering some offset to the broader weakness.

France: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -1.3%)

• Final data have confirmed the estimates; prices have rebounded for clothes, energy, transport and fresh food, while they decreased for communication.
• Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 1.4% y/y the prior month to 1.6% y/y.

Germany: Wholesale price (Oct.): 0.4% m/m (prior: -0.3%)

• Yearly trend was up from -1.6% y/y prior month to -0.8% y/y.

Poland: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly rebound in inflation; prices of clothes, food and education have rebounded over the month, while they decreased for transport-fuel and recreation.
• Yearly trend has slightly increased from 4.9% y/y prior month to 5% y/y.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 8.4% vs 8.6% expected (prior: 8.6%)

• Unemployment rate (sa) has declined over the month on lower total unemployed.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Oct.): -0.3% m/m (prior: -0.1%)

• Imported prices were down by 0.4% m/m (-0.4% m/m prior month) and down by 4.4% y/y (-3.5% y/y prior month).
• Producer prices were also down by 0.3% m/m (flat the prior month) and down by 0.5% y/y (-0.2% y/y prior month).
• Downwards pressures on prices from imported goods remained in place.

Switzerland: GDP (Q3-25): 0.2% q/q as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Excluding sports event, GDP growth has slowed down in Q3 from Q2-25; no details are yet available, but official statement mentioned that services were positive contributor to growth while industry has contracted in Q3.

UK: GDP (Q3-24): 0.1% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• GDP growth has disappointed over the quarter; the main reason was a sharp contraction of inventories (-0.9 pp net contribution to GDP), while consumption was up by 0.5% q (0.2% q in Q2), public consumption up by 0.6%q (1.1% q in Q2) and investment up by 1.1% q (0.6% q in Q2). Net trade was a positive contributor to GDP growth (0.46 pp).
• Limited Q3 GDP growth masked good progress in domestic demand, in line with our scenario.