每日宏观动态
US: rebound in weekly jobless claims; lower trade deficit in Sept; SNB kept rates at 0%
US: Initial jobless claims (Dec. 6): 236k vs 220k expected (prior: 192k revised from 191k)
- Continuing claims: 1838 k after 1937 k prior week.
US: Wholesale inventories (Sept.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)
- Inventories have increased for computers, machinery and pharma products.
- Sales were down by 0.2% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month) due to falling sales of computers and machinery.
US: Trade balance (Sept.): -52.8 bn USD vs -63.1 bn expected (prior: -59.3 bn revised from -59.6 bn)
- Trade balance has improved thanks to a rebound in exports.
- Exports were up by 3% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month); the rebound was centered on industrial components and consumer goods.
- Imports were up by 0.6% m/m after -5.2% m/m; only imports of consumer goods have rebounded over the month.
Sweden: CPI (Nov.): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Final data pointed to a less important fall in monthly prices than initially estimated.
- Prices in several sectors were down over the month: food, clothes, household goods, leisure and restaurants sectors.
- Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.3% y/y and core inflation from 2.8% y/y to 2.4% y/y.
Switzerland: SNB has left key rates unchanged at 0%
- The bank expects 2025 growth up around 1.5% and around 1% for 2026; inflation has been revised lower, after lower-than-expected prices recently: 0.3% y/y in 2026 (0.5% y/y previous estimates) and 0.6% in 2027 (0.7% previously).
- The bank reiterated that it should remain active in FX.
UK: RICS house price balance (Nov.): -16% vs -21% expected (prior: -19%)
- Sentiment was less negative over the month, but uncertainties remained on future sales and prices due to new taxes on properties.
Turkey: Central bank cut key rates from 39.50% to 38%.
- The cut in one-week repo rate was larger than expected; the bank has cut on lower-than-expected inflation data, mainly due to lower food prices, but remained cautious about future path of inflation and decisions remain data dependent with meeting-by-meeting approach.
US: some moderation in Employment cost index in Q3-25
US: Employment cost index (Q3-25): 0.8% q/q vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.9%)
- Wages were up by 0.8%q after 1%q in Q2-25.
- Employment cost was up by 3.5% y/y after 3.6% y/y in Q2-25.
- Quarterly rise was less pronounced btu the yearly trend remained sustained; in the near term, this high level should be balanced by higher productivity gains.
Italy: Industrial production (Oct.): -1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 2.7% revised from 2.8%)
- All sectors were down in terms of activity over the month except the energy sector.
- Consumer goods were down by 1.8% m/m and capital goods down by 1% m/m.
Norway: CPI (Nov.): 0.1% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.3%)
- Several sectors have shown a monthly contraction in prices such as food, household goods (Black Friday effects), transport and communication; on the opposite, some sectors have seen prices accelerating in housing, health, and hotel-restaurants.
- Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% to 3.0% y/y on headline inflation and from 3.4% to 3.0% y/y on core inflation.
Sweden: Industrial production (Oct.): -1.4% m/m (prior: 1.3% revised from 0.9%)
- Private sector production was down by 1.4% m/m due to a fall in industrial production by 6.6% m/m (5% m/m prior month) while services were up by 0.1% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month).
- Proxy for GDP was down by 0.3% m/m after -0.1% m/m the prior month.
Sweden: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.9% m/m (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)
- Consumption was up by 2.3% y/y after 3.6% y/y the prior month.
Brazil: CPI (Nov.): 0.18% m/m vs 0.19% expected (prior: 0.09%)
- Prices (IBGA index) have declined over the month for food, household goods, health, and communication. Prices remained sustained for transport and personal goods.
- Yearly trend has declined from 4.68% y/y prior month to 4.46% y/y.
Turkey: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.8% m/m (prior: -2.1% revised from -2.2%)
- Except mining (up by 1.2% m/m), all major sectors were down over the month.
- Manufacturing production was down by 0.9% m/m after -2.2% m/m prior month.
Seemingly good US job openings
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Nov): 99.0 vs 98.3 expected (prior: 98.2)
- Small business optimism is on the rise, but owners remain frustrated by a persistent shortage of qualified workers and growing concerns over inflation.
- Despite these challenges, many plan to hire, buoyed by expectations of higher sales volumes in the next three months. The share of businesses raising average selling prices jumped 13 points to a net 34% the highest level since March 2023.
US: JOLTS Job Openings (Oct): 7670k vs 7117k expected (prior: 7658k)
- Job openings in the US surged in October to a five-month high, yet a decline in hiring and an uptick in layoffs signaled a continued cooling of the labor market.
- The increase in openings was largely confined to a few sectors, including retail, wholesale trade, and health care.
- Meanwhile, the quits rate fell to 1.8%, reflecting waning worker confidence in finding new jobs.
- The release of September and October data was delayed and combined due to the 43-day government shutdown, with September figures incorporating partial self-reported data and updates collected afterward.
Germany: Trade Balance (Oct): 16.9bn EUR vs 15.7bn expected (prior: 15.3bn revised from 15.3bn)
- Germany’s trade surplus grew in October, reaching a six-month high as exports rose unexpectedly by 0.1%, defying forecasts of a 0.2% decline.
- Stronger demand from EU partners drove the increase.
- Meanwhile, imports fell by 1.2%, exceeding the expected 0.5% drop.
Solid rise in German industrial production
Germany: Industrial production (Oct.): 1.8% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1.3%)
- Industrial activity rose again in October thanks to construction, energy and manufacturing.
- Within the manufacturing sector, production has rebounded for capital goods and durable consumer goods.
Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Nov.): -33.8 vs -34 expected (prior: -36.9)
- Sentiment was less negative than the prior month, thanks to a less pessimistic outlook on the economy.
- Opinions on financial conditions remained steady, with no change in consumers' willingness to make significant purchases.
US consumer sentiment improved in December
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Dec P): 53.3 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.0)
- US consumer confidence increased for the first time in five months, driven by easing inflation expectations and a brighter outlook on personal finances.
- Consumers now anticipate prices to rise 4.1% over the next year, down from 4.5% and marking the lowest level since January.
- While optimism about the job market improved slightly, most respondents still foresee higher unemployment in the year ahead.
US: Core PCE deflator (Sep): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)
- The core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.8% y/y in line with expectations.
- Real spending stagnated in September (0% m/m vs. 0.1% expected), adding to the case for a cut, while personal income grew 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected, driven largely by higher employee compensation.
Spain: Industrial production (Oct): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)
- On an annual basis, the industry figure also grew more than anticipated, increasing by 1.2% y/y compared to 0.8% y/y.
Germany: Factory orders (Oct): 1.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 2.0% revised from 1.1%)
- German factory orders soared in October, buoyed by an 87% spike in large-scale transport orders, including aircraft, ships, trains, and military vehicles.
- However, despite signs of stabilization in September's factory orders and industrial output, the German Manufacturing PMI for November dropped further below the critical 50-point threshold, signaling continued contraction in the sector impacted by US tariffs.
France: Industrial production (Oct): 0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.8%)
- France industrial output was also better than expected on a yearly basis: 1.7% y/y vs 1.3% y/y.
Eurozone: GDP (3Q T): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- The Eurozone's Q3 GDP growth was revised up slightly to 0.3% m/m from 0.2%, driven by a resilient services sector, while manufacturing remains sluggish as well as household consumption.