每日宏观动态

Switzerland: M3 (June): 0.4% y/y (prior: -0.6%)

• M1 was still down by 9.6% y/y after -12.6% y/y the prior month and M2 down by 5.3% y/y after -7.7% y/y.
• Time deposits remained on a sustained growth trend (35.2% y/y).

Poland: Retail sales (June): 0.3% m/m vs 1.4% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Sales were strong for autos and fuels but have reversed in other sectors over the month.
• Sales were up by 4.4% y/y after 5% y/y the prior month (all in volume terms).

US: Initial jobless claims (Jul 13): 243k vs 229k expected (prior: 223k revised from 222k)

• The number of unemployment benefit claims in the US rose by 10k to 243k for the week ending July 13th, exceeding the anticipated 229k and setting a new weekly high.
• This uptick, alongside other significant indicators, points to a continued weakening of the US labor market during this period, strengthening the belief that the Federal Reserve might reduce benchmark borrowing rates by September.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Jul): 13.9 vs 2.9 expected (prior: 1.3)

• The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US surged to 13.9 in July 2024, marking its highest level in three months.
• This reading indicates a broad expansion in Philadelphia's manufacturing activity, with general activity increasing and indexes for shipments (27.8 vs. -7.2), new orders (20.7 vs. -2.2), and employment (15.2 vs. -2.5) all turning positive. Additionally, both price indexes reflected ongoing price increases, with prices paid at 22.5 (up from 19.8) and prices received at 24.2 (up from 13.7).
• Most future activity indicators also rose, pointing to more widespread expectations for overall growth in the next six months (38.7 vs. 13.8).

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (May): 5.7% y/y as expected (prior: 5.9%)

• UK wage growth declined to 5.7% in the three months leading up to May, down from the previous 5.9%, aligning with consensus expectations.
• Wage growth remained steady in the public sector at 6.3% but decreased in the private sector to 5.5% from 5.9%. This decline was partly due to favorable base effects, as a significant increase in May of the previous year was not repeated.
• The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.4% during the same period, matching consensus forecasts.
• This moderation in wage growth is likely to reassure the central bank, especially following signs of persistent inflation in June's CPI report.

Eurozone: ECB meeting: no change in key rates as expected.

• With no surprises, the ECB decided not to change its policy, which is still viewed as being restrictive.
• Inflation remains a concern despite the statement downplaying the recent rebound due to one-off factors. Nevertheless, the ECB’s statement remains slightly hawkish as it indicated inflation could remain above target next year.
• Wages remained on the rise while productivity is low; profits have partly absorbed inflation pressures. Pressures remain on domestic prices.
• More data are needed to confirm the beginning of a downward trend in wages and inflation.
• Nevertheless, the door remains open in favor of a September rate cut.
• Risks to growth are on the downside, and confidence and global trade could be negatively impacted.
• The ECB calls for deficit reduction and a cap on public debt.

US: Housing starts (June): 1353k vs 1300k expected (prior: 1314k revised from 1277k)

• Housing starts were higher than expected and have regained from the lows seen the prior month (revised up).
• The monthly rebound was driven by multifamily houses while single-family houses have decreased further to reach the lows of 2024.
• Building permits have increased from 1393k the prior month to 1446k; these permits probably point towards firmer housing starts next months; within permits, the rebound was fuelled by permits on multifamily while those for single family have declined over the month.

US: Industrial production (June): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Industrial activity was boosted by auto production (1.6% m/m) and utilities; other sectors were mixed.

UK: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Monthly inflation was in line with expectations and has slowed down from the prior month.
• By sector, prices were down for clothes, transport, and communication but on the rise for hotels and restaurants.
• Yearly trend remained unchanged from the prior month for headline inflation at 2% and for core inflation at 3.5% y/y, while market was expecting data slightly below 2% y/y on headline.
• Some BoE's members mentioned that more data will be necessary to build more confidence on inflation before voting for a first rate cut; the probability of an August rate cut has decreased despite the 2% inflation target reached due to still sticky prices in services (5.7% y/y).

UK: PPI Input prices (June): -0.8% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from 0%)

• Prices of energy and intermediate goods have decreased over the month.
• Yearly trend has turned less negative, down 0.4% y/y after -0.7% y/y the prior month.

UK: PPI Output prices (June): -0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.1%)

• Prices of energy and food have decreased over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.7% y/y the prior month to 1.4% y/y.
• Pressures on prices have eased down and could help further disinflation at CPI level.

Eurozone: CPI (June): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Prices were confirmed up 0.2% m/m as expected; food prices were up 0.2% m/m as seen the prior month; energy prices were down 0.8% m/m after -1.2% m/m prior month.
• Prices of goods were down 0.1% m/m after being flat the prior month.
• Services remained sustained, up 0.6% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month (4.1% y/y unchanged from prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.6% to 2.5% for headline prices and core inflation remained stable at 2.9% y/y.
• With these inflation data, there is no rush for the ECB to cut key rates in July, but rather to wait for Sept. for another move.

UK: Retail sales (June): -1.2% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: 2.9%)

• Retail sales y/y: -0.2% vs 0.2% expected (prior: 1.7%, revised from 1.3%)
• The weakness in June can mainly be attributed to unseasonable weather and, potentially, to the uncertainty caused by the general election. This compensated for the 10% rise in minimum wages from April and rising real wages.

UK: GFK consumer confidence (July): -13 vs -12 expected (prior: -14)

• After a steady improvement since October 2022, consumer confidence hit a 34-month high in July amid rising real-wage growth, which suggests that spending could improve in H2.

Germany: PPI (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• PPI y/y: -1.6% as expected (prior: -2.2%)
• Prices of non-durable goods and food posted the strongest increases over the month (+0.3% m/m)