每日宏观动态
Better sentiment in services in the eurozone and in the US (ISM services)
US: ADP Employment change (Feb.): 63k vs 50k expected (prior: 11k revised from 22k)
- Job creations were firmer over the month, but past month data were revised down.
- Major part of job creations came from small firms (60 k) after depressed data the prior month; creations were up by 10 k in large firms while down in medium-sized firms.
- By sector, creations were positive in the two main sectors but biased in favor of services: 47 k in services and 16 k in the manufacturing sector.
US: Services PMI (Feb.): 51.7 vs 52.3 expected (prior: 52.7)
- Final business confidence in services came lower than expected and from the prior month.
- Demand was weaker, but it seemed to be due to bad weather conditions; new foreign demand has declined over the month.
- Costs have increased due to labor costs and tariffs. Opinions have also decreased on employment.
US: ISM Services (Feb.): 56.1 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53.8)
- Business confidence in services has strongly rebounded over the month, contrary to the PMI services (this index is more small firms oriented).
- The improvement was broad based across major sub indicators: rising orders, backlog of orders, employment, export demand and falling prices paid.
Eurozone: PPI (Jan.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.3%)
- Yearly trend remained stable at 2.1% y/y.
Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 6.1% vs 6.2% expected (prior: 6.3% revised from 6.2%)
- Unemployed has decreased over the period.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Feb.): 51.9 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.6)
- Business sentiment in services has increased slightly more than seen in first estimate from the prior month.
- Sentiment has increased over the month in France (but the index remained just below 50) and in Germany, with improving new orders; index has slightly eroded in Italy and Spain but remained well above the 50 level.
- Current activity was better oriented, but export orders were limited; views on employment are mixed while costs were on the rise (wages, energy and transport costs).
Italy: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 5.1% vs 5.6% expected (prior: 5.5% revised from 5.6%)
- Unemployed has decreased over the month.
Italy: GDP (Q4-25): 0.3% q/q as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Final estimate was in line with first estimate of GDP growth.
- Activity was firmer thanks to investment (0.3%q) and public consumption (0.2%); private consumption was up by 0.1%q while exports were down by 1.2%q.
Switzerland: CPI (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Prices have rebounded over the month, driven by higher prices for clothes, transport, leisure and housing.
- Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m, as seen the prior month.
- Yearly trend remained stable at 0.1% y/y and core inflation was up by 0.5% y/y after 0.6% y/y the prior month.
UK: Services PMI (Feb.): 53.9 as expected (prior: 54)
- Sentiment has eroded in services from the prior month in final data. Index for new business has decreased from the prior month, but it remained above the 50 level.
- Domestic activity was firmer than exports; employment has decreased due to higher costs. Technology costs were also mentioned on the rise and participated to rising total costs.
Eurozone inflation picked up more than expected
Eurozone: CPI (Feb P): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.6%)
- Inflation in the eurozone picked up more sharply than anticipated in February, according to flash estimates. Headline inflation rose to 1.9% y/y, up 0.2 pts from the previous month, driven primarily by a rebound in energy prices, which climbed 0.8 pts to -3.2% y/y.
- Core inflation, also edged higher, reaching 2.4% y/y compared to 2.2% in January. This increase was largely fueled by a rise in service prices, which accelerated by 0.2 pts to 3.4% y/y.
- Italy played a significant role in this uptick, particularly in the hospitality sector, as hotels and accommodation services saw a surge in demand, likely linked to the Winter Olympics hosted in Milan.
- Looking ahead, the ECB is expected to closely monitor any persistently higher energy prices that could lead to second-round effects on inflation. For now, however, policymakers appear inclined to maintain their current stance and hold off on any immediate changes to monetary policy whereas the market disagrees and prices a 30% chance that ECB will hike rates by 25 bp this year.
Italy: CPI (Feb P): 0.6% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 1.0%)
- Preliminary data for February reveal a sharper-than-expected rise in harmonized CPI inflation, with the Winter Olympic Games likely driving much of the surprise.
- Services inflation saw a significant jump, accelerating to 3.9% y/y from 2.7% y/y, contributing the lion’s share of the overall increase.
- The surge was concentrated in tourism-related sectors, such as restaurants and hotels, suggesting a temporary boost rather than a sustained rise in underlying price pressures.
Solid growth in the US manufacturing sector despite rising input prices
US: ISM Manufacturing (Feb): 52.4 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 52.6)
- New orders: 55.8 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 57.1)
- Employment: 48.8 vs 48.3 expected (prior: 48.1)
- Prices paid: 70.5 vs 60.0 expected (prior: 59.0)
- The headline index was little changed from January, indicating a second month of growth at one of the highest paces since 2022. New orders remained solid while the gauge on employment slightly improved.
- The main surprise came from the prices paid index which rose back just above the levels seen during last summer, which were the highest since 2022 - and this was ahead of the attacks on Iran.
- If the recent increase in energy prices is sustained, producers may have little choice but to raise their prices.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Feb. F.): 50.8 as expected (prior: 49.5)
- This final release confirms the manufacturing recovery in the eurozone, with the PMI reaching its highest level since June 2022.
- New orders rose to 51 from 49.2 in January.
- The headline index rose to 50 in Spain and just above this threshold in Germany (50.9), France (50.1) and Italy (50.6).
Germany: Retail sales (Jan.): -0.9% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 0.1%)
- Retail sales unexpectedly declined in January, but December's figures were revised significantly higher.
- Annual growth slowed to 1.2% in January, from 2.5% y/y in December.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Feb. F.): 51.7 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.8)
- Revised slightly downward from the flash estimate, but it is still very close to the highest level since mid-2024.
Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Feb.): 47.4 vs 49.8 expected (prior: 48.8)
- Unexpected (slight) decline, but the manufacturing PMI remains in the relatively tight range seen since mid-2024.
Turkey: GDP (Q4 25): 0.4% q/q vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.0%)
- GDP y/y: 3.4% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.8% revised from 3.7%)
- Full-year 2025 growth reached 3.6% after 3.5% in 2024.
- Household spending remained the main driver of growth last year despite high inflation.
US PPI higher due to rises in services; higher monthly preliminary inflation in France, Germany and Spain.
US: PPI (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)
- Prices have declined for food (-1.5% m/m) and energy (-2.7% m/m), but they were on a sharp rise for trade (2.5% m/m) and warehouses (1.0% m/m) sectors. This could reflect higher tariffs and rising material prices and rise in margins in the sector.
- Core PPI (ex-energy, food and trade sector) was up by 0.3% m/m as seen the prior month.
- Yearly trend has declined from 3.0% y/y to 2.9% y/y and from 3.5% to 3.4% y/y on core PPIs.
US: Chicago PMI (Feb.): 57.7 vs 52.1 expected (prior: 54)
- Business confidence has strongly rebounded over the month; all major components were on the rise: production, new orders, employment and lower inventories.
- Prices paid were also on the rise over the month.
France: Consumer spending (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.6%)
- Spending has rebounded driven by food, clothes and durable goods over the month.
- Energy consumption was heavily down over the month.
- Consumption remained volatile through the months while preference for saving is still important.
France: CPI (Feb.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.4%)
- Preliminary data have shown a rebound in prices; this was driven by good prices, up by 1.2% m/m after -1.9% m/m prior month; services were also up by 0.7% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month. Energy prices were up by 0.2% m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 1.1% y/y after 0.4% y/y the prior month.
France: Producer Prices (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Yearly trend has declined further from -1.9% y/y prior month to -2.3% y/y.
Germany: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)
- Unemployed has increased by 1 k over the month but the unemployment ratio remained stable over the month.
Germany: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Preliminary data have shown higher monthly inflation; prices were firmer for clothes, food, and services while energy prices have contracted over the month.
- Yearly trend has marginally declined from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.0% y/y.
Spain: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.8%)
- Monthly inflation has rebounded according to preliminary data, and yearly trend has increased from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.5% y/y.
Norway: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 2.1% as expected (prior: 2.1%)
- Unemployment ratio remained stable but non-seasonal data of unemployed has decreased over the month.
Norway: Retail sales (Jan.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.7%)
- Sales were up by 4.1% y/y.
Sweden: GDP (Q4-25): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 1.1%)
- Growth was firmer than expected thanks to a strong domestic demand; Public consumption (2.3%q) and investment (2.9%q) was the main drivers to growth, thanks to higher machinery, equipment and defense spending.
- Private consumption was also sustained, up by 0.9% q/q. Exports have contracted over the quarter.
Sweden: Retail sales (Jan.): 0.1% m/m (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.7%)
- Sales were up by 4.1% y/y after 2.3% y/y prior month.
Switzerland: KOF (Feb.): 104.2 vs 103 expected (prior: 103.3 revised from 102.5)
- Business confidence has increased and remained on a strong trend over the past months.
Switzerland: GDP (Q4-25): 0.1% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.5%)
- Consumption remained on regular and positive trend, up by 0.4% q as seen in Q3.
- Capex was strong, up by 0.7%q; construction was up by 1%q and equipment-software spending up by 0.6%q.
- Exports were up by 0.6% (1.1% in Q3) and imports up by 1.7% q (1.4% in Q3).
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Feb.): -19 vs -15 expected (prior: -16)
- Consumer confidence has decreased over the month; opinions on future economy remained stable but views have deteriorated on financial situation over the month.
- Willingness to buy items has decreased over the month.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 8.1% vs 7.7% expected (prior: 7.8%)
- Unemployed has rebounded from the prior month; unemployed has increased while labor force has declined over the month.
Eurozone: lower confidence in industry and services than in the prior month
US: Initial jobless claims (Feb.21): 212k vs 216k expected (prior: 208k revised from 206k)
- Continuing claims: 1833 k after 1864 k prior week.
Eurozone: M3 (Jan.): 3.3% y/y vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.8%)
- Monetary aggregates and credit have accelerated entering 2026.
- M2 was up by 3.4% y/y (3.1% y/y prior month) and M1 up by 5.3% y/y (4.7% y/y prior month).
- Credit to private sector has increased by 3.0% y/y after 2.9% y/y prior month.
Italy: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 97.4 vs 97 expected (prior: 96.8)
- Consumer sentiment has increased on higher expectations in future economy, more positive personal financial situation.
Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Feb.): 88.5 vs 89.6 expected (prior: 89.2)
- Business confidence has slightly decreased in manufacturing and in services; on the opposite, it has regained for construction and retail sectors.
- While business sentiment index remains on stable level past months, consumer confidence has shown a rebuilding trend.
Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Feb.): 97.7 (prior: 103.4 revised from 103.6)
- Business confidence has decreased over the month after large rebound at year end.
- Sentiment has increased in construction but weakened in services.
Sweden: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 96.3 vs 95.5 expected (prior: 95 revised from 95.3)
- Consumer sentiment has improved on both macro and personal levels over the month.
Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Feb.): -7.1 vs -6.2 expected (prior: -6.8)
- Business confidence has decreased over the month, contrary to consensus expectations.
- Opinions remained stable on production and orders but weakened on employment while inventories were on the rise.
- Selling prices were on the rise over the month.
Eurozone: Services confidence (Feb.): 5 vs 7.4 expected (prior: 6.8 revised from 7.2)
- Confidence has decreased over the month in services; opinions declined on current situation and future demand; confidence has also decreased in construction sector.
- The service and industrial business confidence came lower than the prior month and were also more cautious than the PMI indices.
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Feb.): -12.2 as expected (prior: -12.4)
- Consumer confidence was marginally better than the prior month.
- Opinions were less negative on financial situation and economic outlook, but households remained concerned by unemployment.
- They were cautious on future purchases, and over the trend in prices, while preference for saving has increased again.