每日宏观动态

US: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Sales have slowed down from the prior month and data were mixed at sector level.
• Purchases were sustained for furniture, building materials, health, gasoline, easing services. On the opposite, sales were down for autos, electronics, clothes and sport goods.
• Core sales (ex-food, gasoline, building materials and autos) were down by 0.1% m/m after sustained sales over the prior three months.
• Despite slower momentum in Sept., consumption should remain sustained in Q3-25.

US: PPI (Sept.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Prices have accelerated over the month on food, goods and energy price prices; while services were flat over the month.
• Yearly trend was stable (after 0.1 pp upward revisions to prior month yearly change) at 2.7 %y/y and at 2.9% y/y for core PPIs. Pressures on good prices remained at year end.

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Sept.): 1.36% y/y vs 1.4% expected (prior: 1.57% revised from 1.58%)

• Prices were up by 0.13% m/m (0.10% m/m expected) after 0.12% m/m prior month.
• Over 20 cities, 7 cities offered still positive trend in prices but only 4 cities offered a rise equal or higher than 4% y/y.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Nov.): -15 vs -5 expected (prior: -4)

• Opinions on current business have deteriorated due to lower shipments and orders but views were less negative on capex, employment and were positive on wages.
• The 6-month index was in strong rebound (index at 25 after 13 prior month) on higher new orders, backlog of orders and business conditions; but opinions were less positive on employment and wages.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Nov.): 88.7 vs 93.3 expected (prior: 95.5 revised from 94.6)

• Consumer sentiment has deteriorated on both current conditions (index at 126.9 after 131.2 prior month) and expectations (index at 63.2 after 71.8).
• Labor conditions are seen as more difficult, and opinions have decreased on labor.
• Future economic conditions are also expected to deteriorate. Plan to buy autos and houses has decreased from the prior month.
• 12 M inflation expectations remained at stable at 5.7% (average measure) but the median of expectations has increased from 4.6%y/y prior month to 4.8%y/y.

US: Pending home sales (Oct.): 1.9% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

• Sales have rebounded in 3 districts over the month but decreased on the fourth district (West).

France: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 89 vs 90 expected (prior: 90)

• Consumer confidence has slightly decreased from the prior month.
• Details offered mixed picture: decreasing confidence on financial situation and future purchases but less worries on unemployment.

Germany: GDP (Q3-25): 0% q/q as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Data remained in line with first estimates but offered details by sector; public consumption has supported activity while consumption has contracted.
• Private consumption was down by 0.3% q, but public spending was up by 0.8% q;
• Investment was up by 0.3%q (-1.1% in Q2) thanks to equipment spending while construction has contracted further.
• Exports were down by 0.7% and imports flat in Q3-25.
• Separately productivity in Q3-25 was done by 0.2%q (0.2% in Q2) and unit labor costs up by 1%q (1.4% in Q2).

Spain: PPI (Oct.): 0.5% m/m (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.4%)

• Energy prices were up by 1.6% m/m driven by the rebound in PPIs.
• Yearly trend has re-accelerated to 0.7% y/y after 0.2% y/y prior month.

Poland: Retail sales (Oct.): 6.7% m/m vs 5.0% expected (prior: -2.7%)

• Sales have regained after two months of fall; the rebound was broad-based across sectors but leaders in the rebound were autos, food, and clothes over the month.

Germany: IFO (Nov.): 88.4 vs 88.5 expected (prior: 88.4)

• Sentiment on current situation has slightly increased from the prior month (index at 85.6 after 85.3 prior).
• Expectations have marginally decreased from 91.6 to 90.6, which remained a quite high level.
• By sector, opinions have decreased over the month in manufacturing, trade and construction but they regained in services.

Poland: Industrial production (Nov.): 5.4% m/m vs 3.6% expected (prior: 16.3% revised from 16%)

• All sectors have rebounded further over the month, driven by electricity and mining sectors.
• Manufacturing production was up by 4.6% m/m after 17.4% m/m prior month.

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 103.2 (prior: 102)

• Business confidence has increased over the month thanks to new orders, exports and production. Opinions on capex and inventories have decreased over the month.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 51.9 vs 52 expected (prior: 52.5)

• Preliminary data have pointed to eroding confidence in manufacturing.
• While sentiment remained positive on production, views have decreased for new orders and export orders; an undesired rise in inventories was seen.
• Employment was positive and selling prices remain contained.

US: Services PMI (Nov.): 55 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 54.8)

• Sentiment has increased further in services from the prior month; sentiment has increased on new business but decreased on employment; selling prices remained on the rise.
• The composite index has marginally increased from 54.6 to 54.8 thanks to services.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov.): 51 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 53.6)

• Final consumer confidence offered a more limited fall than in the first estimate from the prior month.
• Sentiment has sharply declined on current situation, related to negative views on income and labor.
• Expectations have slightly increased from the prior month, contrary to first estimate showing a fall. Nevertheless, views were cautious on future activity, with rising concerns on unemployment and building hopes of a decrease in interest rates.
• The rating of approvals among consumers about the government fighting inflation and unemployment remained at low level.
• Willingness to buy autos and houses has decreased from the prior month.
• Inflation expectations have decreased from the prior month, contrary to first estimates; inflation at 12 M is expected at 4.5% y/y after 4.6%y/y and the 5-10 expectations came at 3.4% after 3.9% y/y prior month.

US: Wholesale inventories (Ug.): 0% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Inventories have increased further for autos and computers. Total sales were up by 0.1% m/m after 1.3% m/m prior month.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 49.7 vs 50.1 expected (prior: 50)

• Preliminary business sentiment has decreased over the month and new orders index was back below the 50 level.
• Sentiment has decreased in Germany and France from the prior month.
• Demand remained weak and inventories have been reduced; while costs were on the rise, employment has decreased; selling prices remained unchanged.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Nov.): 53.1 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 53)

• Preliminary sentiment in services remained sustained, but new demand has weakened.
• Index has regained in France (from 48 to 50) but weakened in Germany (from 54.6 to 52.7).
• Composite index for eurozone remained stable (52.4 after 52.5 prior month), mainly due to services.

France: Business confidence (Nov.): 98 vs 97 expected (prior: 97)

• Business confidence has decreased in manufacturing (index from 101 prior month to 98).
• Views were less negative about past and future production but decreased on new orders.
• Index was up for services from the prior month.

Switzerland: M3 (Oct.): 4.8% y/y (prior: 4.0% revised from 3.9%)

• M1 was upby 21.5% y/y after 20.6% y/y prior month.
• M2 was up by 16.2% y/y after 15.8% y/y the prior month; time deposits have decreased further while saving deposits remained on regular rising trend.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 50.2 vs 49.2 expected (prior: 49.7)

• Preliminary data pointed to higher production and new orders (domestic demand in rebound), but opinions have weakened on employment. Prices have moderated.

UK: Services PMI (Nov.): 50.5 vs 52 expected (prior: 52.3)

• Views on activity and new business have weakened over the month due to uncertainties about the future budget policy.
• Opinions have decreased on employment and moderated on prices.

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Nov.): -19 vs -18 expected (prior: -17)

• Consumer sentiment has decreased more than expected over the month.
• Opinions have deteriorated on personal financial situation, economic outlook and about future purchases.

UK: Retail sales (Oct.): -1.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)

• Sales have decreased on all sector except household goods over the month, after a strong rebound the past two months.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Sept.): 119k vs 51k expected (prior: -4k revised from 22k)

• Payrolls have rebounded after a contraction the prior month; data were volatile prior months with large revisions.
• Jobs have rebounded over the month in manufacturing and construction.
• In services, jobs were up by 87 k after 50k the prior month; the picture was contrasted by sector: a rebound in retail trade, leisure-hospitality, education-health and government but a fall in business services.
• Wage growth was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month and up by 3.8% y/y.
• Unemployment ratio has increased from 4.3% prior month to 4.4%; all other alternative measures of the unemployment ratio have also increased over the month.

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov. 15): 220k vs 227k expected (prior: 228k)

• Continuing claims: 1974 k after 1946 k the prior week.
• Past weeks data were released and pointed to a deterioration in jobless claims mid-Oct (232k) followed by some stabilization, going back to 220-228k past weeks.
• Past weeks, continuing claims remained on a rising trend.
• After the rebound in payrolls on Sept., trend in labor remained volatile with still existing downside risks. The Fed may debate on the opportunity of a cut in Dec., while no new payrolls will be available.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Nov.): -1.7 vs 1 expected (prior: -12.8)

• Business sentiment has improved from the prior month, but less than consensus expected.
• On current situation, sentiment has decreased on new orders and shipments but improved on employment and prices paid.
• The 6-month index has sharply rebounded to reach new high; opinions have improved on new orders, inventories and employment; prices paid were also on the rise.

US: Existing home sales (Oct.): 4.1M vs 4.08M expected (prior: 4.05M revised from 4.06M)

• Sales have regained from the prior month on both single-family houses and condos.
• Inventories (in terms of month of sales) have marginally decreased over the month but remained stable for single-family houses.
• Prices remained on a stable 2.1% y/y trend.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Nov.): -14.2 vs -14 expected (prior: -14.2)

• First estimate of consumer confidence has pointed to stable index over the month after some improvement seen in Aug.-Sept.

Germany: PPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Prices have decreased for food, heating oil and manufacturing products, but up for electricity and capital goods.
• Yearly trend has declined to -1.8% y/y after -1.7% y/y prior month.

Switzerland: Trade balance (Oct.): 4.32 Bn CHF (prior: 3.99Bn)

• Real exports: -0.6% m/m after 2.8% m/m prior month; real imports: 0.1% m/m after 2.0% m/m prior month.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 85 (prior: 83.6)

• Household confidence has improved on financial situation, economic outlook and purchases.