每日宏观动态

ECB Meeting: no change in key rates as expected (deposit rate at 2.0%).

• Statement on the economy is relatively more constructive: resilient growth in Q3 despite risks, but still uncertainties.
• Global environment has seen some reduction in risks (trade, cease fire in Middle East, progress on US-China trade policy and reciprocal tariffs).
• Lagarde noted that better than expected GDP Q3 was also to firmer investment and firms’ involvement into IT and AI.
• Labour conditions remained positive and private sector balance sheets solid.
• Inflation is close to target, but risks remain on both sides and were globally balanced.
• Strategy on rates remained data dependent and the meeting-by-meeting approach continues.
• Lagarde mentioned the monetary policy is again “well positioned” and the ECB will do its jobs to maintain this statement; not the mode to fuel expectations of any rate cut but the door is not totally closed.

 

Eurozone: Business climate (Oct.): -8.2 vs -10 expected (prior: -10.1 revised from -10.3)

• Business confidence has improved over the month and the index is at its highest level since many quarters.
• Confidence has improved on past and future production and views were less negative on orders.
• Opinions on employment have decreased while pressures on prices have increased again.

 

Eurozone: Services confidence (Oct.): 4 vs 3.8 expected (prior: 3.7 revised from 3.6)

• Sentiment has slightly improved on services.
• Views on current demand and employment have improved from the prior month. Opinions remained cautious on future demand, slightly decreasing from the prior month.
• Pressures have moderated on selling prices.
• Within services, confidence has slightly improved on retail and construction sectors.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Oct.): -14.2 as expected (prior: -14.9)

• Consumer confidence has moderately improved form the prior month.
• Views were less negative on financial conditions, global economy and unemployment than prior month.
• Only modest easing in inflation is seen.
• Preference for saving has increased further while views have decreased on major purchases.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployed has marginally increased over the month but the ration remained stable.

 

Eurozone: GDP (Q3-25): 0.2% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Flash estimate was better than expected in Q3.
• No details are available by sector.

 

France: Consumer spending (Sept.): 0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• Spending was firmer over the month thanks to rebound in purchases of food, durable goods ex autos and energy.

 

France: GDP (Q3-25): 0.5% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Growth was stronger than expected thanks to investment and net trade contribution.
• Consumption remained on moderate trend, up by 0.1%q as seen in Q2. Public consumption was up by 0.5% q as seen in Q2.
• Private investment has strongly rebounded, up by 0.9%q in Q3 after 0.2%q in Q2; it rebounded for equipment, transport and also within services in favour of new technologies.
• Exports were up by 2.2%q, driven by aircraft, pharma and chemicals, while imports declined by 0.4% (lower energy imports); as a result, the net trade contribution was up to 0.9 pp in Q3.
• Inventories have decreased over the month (aircraft) and were a drag on growth (-0.6 pp).
• Downside risks weigh on Q4 GDP given political situation and uncertainty on fiscal policy.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployed has decreased by 1 k after a rise by 10 k the prior month.

 

Germany: GDP (Q3-25): 0% q/q as expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

• Growth remained flat in Q3; statistical office mentioned that investment in equipment and in machinery was strong over the quarter while exports were a drag; no detailed figures are published in the flash estimate.

 

Germany: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Preliminary data pointed to still sustained monthly inflation due to services (0.3% m/m).
• Yearly trend has marginally declined from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.3% y/y.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 6.1% vs 6.0% expected (prior: 6.0%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

 

Italy: GDP (Q3-25): 0% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Flash estimate pointed to still weak growth; according to preliminary data, consumption has contracted over the quarter while net exports have contributed to the growth.

 

Spain: CPI (Oct.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Flash estimate pointed to stronger monthly inflation, due to energy and airfares.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.2% y/y after 3.0% y/y the prior month.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 96.8 vs 94 expected (prior: 93.3 revised from 93.2)

• Consumer confidence has regained on both macro and personal financial situation.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 0.9%)

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Oct.): 100.2 (prior: 99.4 revised from 98.6)

 

Switzerland: KOF (Oct.): 101.3 vs 98.4 expected (prior: 98)

• Confidence in manufacturing has regained more than expected and reached the highest level this year.

US: Pending home sales (Sept.): 0% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: 4.2% revised from 4%)

• Sales have diverged across the 4 main districts over the month: falling in Midwest, rising in North and South districts and flat in West district.
• Despite lower interest rates, demand was globally low due to concerns about labour and the US government shutdown.

 

Spain: GDP (Q3-25): 0.6% q/q as expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Domestic demand was sustained while exports have contracted over the quarter.
• Consumption was up by 1.1% and investment was sustained on all major components: construction (up by 1.4%), equipment (1.7%), and R&D (2.4%).
• Exports have contracted by 0.6% (+1.3% in Q2), while imports were sustained (1.1% after 1.6% in Q2).
• Yearly trend has moderated from 3% in Q2 to 2.8% y/y in Q3; Spanish growth continued to over-perform other euro members and it should come close to 2.9% on average in 2025.

 

Spain: Retail sales (real) (Sept.): 4.2% y/y (prior: 4.7% revised from 4.5%)

• Sales were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month; some sector rotation was seen as food and health care have driven up the monthly change while household goods and internet sales were down over the month after prior month rebound.
• The yearly trend remained supported by strong purchases of household’s goods, up by 6.1% y/y.

 

Norway: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

 

Sweden: GDP (Q3-25): 1.1% q/q vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Flash estimates pointed to an acceleration in activity in Q3; monthly indicators were more moderate but revealed a rebound in consumption in Aug., while exports were a drag.

 

UK: M4 (Sept.): 3.6% y/y (prior: 3.4%)

• M4 lending remained stable at 3.6% y/y.
• Total flows of credit to consumers have slightly decreased from the prior month on credit cards. Separately, loans to firms have slightly increased for both large and small firms.
• Total mortgages approved have increased from GBP 65 bn prior month to GBP 65.9 bn.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Oct.): 94.6 vs 93.4 expected (prior: 95.6 revised from 94.2)

• Consumer confidence fell for a third consecutive month in October to the lowest level since April.
• The decline is largely driven by a modest rise in concerns over the labour market. Respondents also frequently cited concerns over the government shutdown.
• The press release also noted that "consumers’ write-in responses were led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy".
• However, most recent data have indicated that consumption has remained resilient so far.

 

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Oct.): -4 vs -12 expected (prior: -17)

• Significant improvement to the highest level since last February, but it still indicates a modest contraction.

 

US: House price Index MoM (FHFA) (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.1%)

• By this measure, house prices in August recorded the sharpest monthy rise of the year, and are up 2.3% y/y.

 

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Aug.): 1.6% y/y vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.8%)

• The value of single-family housing in 20 US cities rose by only 1.6% y/y, the weakest gain in two years.
• This is good news for buyers following a prolonged squeeze on affordability due to soaring prices and high mortgage rates.

 

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Nov.): -24.1 vs -22.0 expected (prior: -22.5 revised from -22.3)

• Consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level since April.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Oct.): 88.3 vs 87.0 expected (prior: 87.4 revised from 87.3)

• Sentiment in the manufacturing sector ticked up in October to the highest level since August 2023.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 97.6 vs 97.0 expected (prior: 96.8)

• Consumer sentiment slightly improved in October, but remains roughly at the same level as at the start of the year.

US: Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Oct.): -5 vs -6.2 expected (prior: -8.7)

• Business sentiment has improved about the current situation.
• Sentiment remained positive on current production and turned less negative on orders; there were also less pressures on prices.
• The 6-M index has eroded but remained positive.
• 6-M views were less strong on orders and production but turned more positive on employment; less pressures on prices were seen.
• The total index was volatile in recent months, but a positive trend has rebuilt, and the index is now back in its pre-covid range.

 

Eurozone: M3 (Sept.): 2.8% y/y vs 2.7% expected (prior: 2.9%)

• M2 was up by 2.7% y/y after 3% y/y prior month; M1 up by 5.1% y/y after 5.0% y/y prior month.
• Credit to private sector remained on stable trend up by 2.7%y/y; loans to consumer remained sustained while those to non-financial corporates have eroded (up by 2.8% y/y after 3.0% y/y the prior month).
• Trend in private credit remained positive but it has not accelerated over the recent past months.

 

Germany: IFO (Oct.): 88.4 vs 88 expected (prior: 87.7)

• Business confidence has improved from the prior month.
• Sentiment on current situation has eroded further (index at 85.3 after 85.7) due to still uncertainties on production and trade.
• Expectations have strongly rebounded (index at 91.6 after 89.8 prior month); sentiment has improved due to stronger fiscal support next year with infrastructure and defense in the spotlight. A recovery is expected next year in German growth (1.3% expected), while it remained sluggish in H2-25 (0.2% expected on average in 2025).

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 8.6% (prior: 8.6% revised from 8.5%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month and in parallel labor force has decreased.