每日宏观动态

US: US Dallas Fed manufacturing

• Views on global activity have decreased but other components have improved such as company outlook, orders and shipments; the 6M index has also improved form the prior month.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (May): -33.3 vs -30 expected (prior: -28.1 revised from -28)

• Consumer confidence has sharply declined over the month; sentiment has declined about business outlook, net income situation and future purchases.
• The index was back in the low range seen in 2022-2023.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (April F.): 49.8 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 53.3)

• Current conditions: 52.5 vs 51.0 expected (prior: 55.8)
• Expectations: 48.1 vs 47.7 expected (prior: 51.7)
• Consumer confidence was revised slightly up from the preliminary estimate, but it remains to a record low according to this survey.
• Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.7% over the next year, up from 3.8% in March. Yet, it rose to as much as 7.1% in May 2025.

Germany: IFO (April): 84.4 vs 85.7 expected (prior: 86.3)

• Current assessment: 85.4 vs 86.2 expected (prior: 86.7)
• Expectations: 83.3 vs 85.5 expected (prior: 85.9)
• The IFO index fell to its lowest level since May 2020, with all sectors down over the month, including construction despite the fiscal stimulus for infrastructure. This probably reflects concerns about higher interest rates rather than doubts about fiscal spending.

France: Consumer confidence (April): 84 vs 88 expected (prior: 89)

• Consumer confidence has deteriorated sharply (steepest deterioration since March 2022), tumbling to the lowest level since April 2023.
• The net percentage of people expecting higher prices has reached its highest level since April 2022.

UK: Retail sales (March): 0.7% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from 0.4%)

• Retail sales y/y: 1.7% vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.8% revised from 2.5%)
• Ex auto fuel: +0.2% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.4%); +1.7% y/y vs 2.0% expected (prior: 2.7% revised from 3.4%)
• Retail sales increased m/m in nearly all major segments.
• Stronger-than-expected consumption makes a near‑term Bank of England rate cut less likely.

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr 18): 214k vs 210k expected (prior: 208k revised from 207k)

• Jobless claims remain low and broadly steady, running below last year’s levels with little change between the survey weeks for the March and April payroll reports.
• Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, edged up for a second week, from a two-year low of 1.787m to 1.821m, but still sit below the 1.840m recorded in the comparable week a year ago.

US: Services PMI (Apr P): 51.3 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 49.8)

• New business edged up but stayed below the pace of the past two years as clients balked at affordability.
• Costs surged at the fastest rate since December, prompting the steepest rise in selling prices in more than 3 years. Employment ticked higher. The outlook improved modestly on the month, yet remains well below last year’s levels.
• The composite index rose from 50.3 to 52.0, beating expectations of 50.6.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Apr P): 54.0 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 52.3)

• Manufacturing climbed to a cycle peak, though some of the heat looks artificial, stoked by pre‑emptive buying ahead of price rises and shortages.
• Output hit a four‑year high; new orders grew at fastest since May 2022; and input inventories rose at the quickest pace since January. Supplier lead times lengthened the most since August 2022 less a sign of strong demand than Middle East related disruptions. The sole negative point: employment slipped for the first time since July 2025.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Apr P): 52.2 vs 50.9 expected (prior: 51.6)

• Manufacturing outperformed in April, expanding at its fastest since May 2022 and outpacing services, with gains across new orders, output and purchasing.
• But the burst looks fragile: much of the strength reflects inventory front‑loading ahead of war‑related price rises and looming supply snags, rather than sturdier demand.
• Inflation pressures intensified and business confidence slid to a 17‑month low, signs of renewed caution.
• Country split: Germany disappointed (51.2 vs 51.4 expected), while France beat forecasts with its strongest reading since 2022 (52.8 vs 49.5).

Eurozone: Services PMI (Apr P): 47.4 vs 49.8 expected (prior: 50.2)

• The Middle East conflict is increasingly weighing on the euro area. Services have slipped into contraction, revealing weaker demand than in manufacturing as households pare back discretionary spending ahead of a slowdown, while industry gets a temporary boost from stockpiling.
• The damage is broad-based. Germany’s reading fell to 46.9 (vs 50.4 expected) and France’s to 46.5 (vs 48.5), underscoring deterioration across the bloc’s largest economies.
• The composite index decreased from 50.7 to 48.6, below expectations of 50.1.

UK: Services PMI (Apr P): 52.0 vs 50.0 expected (prior: 50.5)

• UK private services sector output rebounded in April, but a fresh surge in costs dented optimism.
• Business activity growth picked up from March’s 11-month low but new orders slipped marginally, pointing to brittle demand as global uncertainty and the Middle East conflict stoke inflation.
• Price pressures intensified sharply. Input costs rose at the fastest since the data began in 1996, driven by dearer fuel and strong wage growth; firms lifted selling prices in response. Business sentiment weakened as geopolitics weighed on costs, demand and investment.
• The composite index rose from 50.3 to 52.0, beating expectations of 49.8.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Apr P): 53.6 vs 50.3 expected (prior: 51.0)

• Production snapped back and new orders ticked up as customers accelerated purchases and built safety stocks, bracing for rising prices and potential shortages. Pricing pressures intensified: input costs and selling prices surged on dearer raw materials and transport.
• Yet sentiment soured. Firms said that inflation, and geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains, sap consumer confidence and chill investment.

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Apr): -25 as expected (prior: -21)

• UK consumer confidence fell to lowest since October 2023, in line with expectations.

UK: CPI (March): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Inflation has surged due to a strong rise in energy-fuels prices (11% m/m); related rises were also seen in industrial goods (1.1% m/m) and, within services, in transport and package holidays. Separately, prices of clothes have also seasonally regained over the month. Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% y/y prior month, and services up by 4.5% y/y (4.3% y/y prior month). Core inflation has marginally decreased from 3.2% to 3.1% y/y.
• Under current environment, inflation should accelerate further in April, and to trend close to 4% y/y next months.

UK: PPI Input prices (March): 4.4% m/m vs 3.0% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

• Prices of raw materials have surged over the month.
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 0.7% y/y prior month to 5.4% y/y.

UK: PPI Output prices (March): 0.9% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: -0.5%)

• Prices of energy and food have rebounded over the month.
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (March): 9.2% vs 8.5% expected (prior: 8.4%)

• Unemployed has strongly rebounded over the month.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (April): 85.5 (prior: 85)

• Consumer confidence has slightly regained over the month; opinions have improved on future personal financial situation and were more positive on unemployment; nevertheless, confidence has eroded about future economic situation.