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At Union Bancaire Privée (UBP), External Asset Managers (EAMs) represent around CHF 20 billion in assets under management (AuM), and so the service and support it provides to EAMs is an important part of UBP’s business. We spoke about UBP’s EAM business in Switzerland with those that lead it. 

As the US elections loom large on the horizon, investors are bracing for market turbulence.

Several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank, have ushered in a new era of rate-cutting, signalling the end to their fight against inflation. But what does this easing cycle mean for asset classes?

The global economy is becoming more fragmented, creating a complex landscape for investors and policymakers. Geopolitical events, such as the US elections, the Ukraine-Russia war, and heightened tensions in the Middle East, are amplifying market uncertainties. In response, we have raised our conviction on gold from 3/5 to 4/5.

The Fed’s long-awaited rate cut in September marks the start of a new easing cycle. With the end of the higher-for-longer narrative, investor expectations have shifted, prompting portfolio adjustments and risk premia arbitrage.

Over the summer months, gold rose to new all-time highs at levels of around USD 2,685 per oz. The nearly relentless rise in the gold price reflects several factors.

In mid-August, UBP raised its conviction rating on hedge funds from 3/5 to 4/5, reflecting the belief that alternative investments are well-positioned to navigate the shifting market landscape.

Over the past 15 months, most asset classes have put in positive performances. However, we’ve entered a transitional phase marked by rising volatility, political risks, and market dissonance. To navigate this shifting landscape, we have reduced our global equity exposure and increased our conviction on hedge funds, as alternative investments are well-positioned to capitalise on current market uncertainties.

Earlier in August, global equity markets tumbled due to disappointing US macro data and the unwinding of the Yen carry trade. However, as we expect elevated market volatility until the US Presidential election in November, it may be premature to consider buying the dip.