Peter Kinsella

In this podcast our Global Head of Forex Strategy Peter Kinsella sheds some light on the mechanisms behind gold’s spectacular rise.

Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have risen by nearly 40%, outpacing every major developed market equity index – even the S&P 500.

Several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank, have ushered in a new era of rate-cutting, signalling the end to their fight against inflation. But what does this easing cycle mean for asset classes?

Over the summer months, gold rose to new all-time highs at levels of around USD 2,685 per oz. The nearly relentless rise in the gold price reflects several factors.

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump, Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race, and the rise of Kamala Harris: unexpected twists have emerged in the US presidential election.

Our experts examine the tumultuous US election landscape and historical market behaviour during election years, as well as anticipate the fiscal challenges awaiting the next president amidst record-high US federal debt levels.

There are signs that sterling is set to embark on an upward trend after several years in the doldrums.

In January, gold traded in a tight range of between USD 2,000 and USD 2,050 per oz. This tight trading range reflected a generally subdued trading environment – three-month implied volatilities fell to levels of around 10% – which is a relatively low level of volatility for the yellow metal.

Coming into 2024, here at UBP we hold a constructive view on the JPY. We anticipate that it will continue to appreciate over the course of the year, and we envisage a USD/JPY downward move to levels of around 135 by year-end, with risk skewed to the downside of this level. This represents a decline of at least 6% from current levels. Our generally constructive stance on JPY exchange rates reflects several factors.