新闻中心/瑞联卓见

The US–Europe relations prevailing since World War II are shifting.

Trump’s activism on the US economy is creating fears of recession. To navigate short-term turbulence, we have tactically scaled back our exposure to macro-sensitive assets, such as US equities, including US midcaps, along with high-yield and emerging-market debt, while increasing our allocation to gold.

In New York as well as other major metro areas, once-bustling corporate offices are now quieter, leading companies to adjust to a new reality: remote working is no longer a temporary solution but rather a structural shift. Consequently, corporates are actively reducing their office space footprints, significantly increasing vacancies in the sector.

A new player has shaken the AI industry. DeepSeek, until recently a little-known Chinese start-up has launched DeepSeek-R1, a low-cost AI model challenging OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which is a stark reminder that the US is no longer the only competitor in the global AI race.

The post-election fiscal tightening in 2024, coupled with persistent inflationary pressures, has cast a shadow over India’s economy.

The year started with volatility in rates, as the 10-year Treasury yield oscillates amid shifting market dynamics.

At the start of the year, markets dismissed the prospect of US tariffs as mere threats rather than economic realities. But the new Trump administration’s first decisive moves – targeting China, Canada, Mexico, and soon, Europe – have shattered that assumption.

UBP’s Deputy Head of Private Markets Group, Gaetan Aversano, recently took part in a compelling discussion at the IPEM Cannes 2025 conference. The session, titled ‘What wealth clients really want: surprising lessons learned from the field,’ delved into the evolving preferences and needs of wealthy clients, particularly in the realm of private markets.

On his return to the Oval Office, Donald Trump swiftly sparked uncertainty with a trade offensive against Mexico, Canada and China. We expect the return of protectionist policies to fuel market volatility in the months ahead. In this environment, hedge funds and precious metals stand out as resilient investment choices.

Looking at 2025, macroeconomic shifts and evolving investment strategies are reshaping the outlook for private markets.

In our latest Forex Focus podcast, UBP’s Global Head of FX Strategy Peter Kinsella interviews Saeed Amen of Turnleaf Analytics on the evolution of market research with artificial intelligence.

Trump's agenda of higher tariffs, tax cuts, and stricter immigration measures could, if actually implemented, spur inflationary pressures, thus curbing the momentum for interest rate cuts. This ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment favours hedge funds over fixed income investments – an asset class we have downgraded from 3/5 to 2/5.