Atualização macro diária

US: Retail sales (Nov.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.0%)

• Ex autos & gasoline: 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)
• Retail sales regained momentum in November, with strength concentrated in typical holiday categories such as sporting goods (+1.9% m/m) and a modest rebound in car sales (+1.0%) after a sharp decline in October.
• This report adds to evidence that the US consumer remains resilient.

 

US: PPI (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• PPI y/y: 3.0% vs 2.7% expected (prior: 2.8%)
• PPI ex food & energy: 0.0% vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%); 3.0% y/y vs 2.7% expected (prior: 2.9%)
• Wholesale inflation slightly increased in November mainly as a result of a rise in energy costs.
• This release confirms that companies continue to limit the degree to which they pass along higher import duties to avoid lower sales.

 

US: Existing home sales (Dec): 4.35M vs 4.22M expected (prior: 4.14M revised from 4.13M)

• Existing home sales rose by a strong 5.1% in December, supported by easing borrowing costs and slower price growth. Indeed, the median sales price increased by only 0.4% y/y, the least in 2.5 years.
• This suggests that the home resale market is likely to gradually recover in 2026 after three very weak years.

 

US: Business inventories (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

• The inventory to sales ratio edged marginally higher to 1.38.

US: CPI (Dec): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• US CPI posts limited rebound from shutdown distortions as headline yearly prices remained at 2.7% and core remained at 2.6% below 2.7% expected.
• Inflationary pressures are primarily concentrated in the core service sector, with an increase of 3.0% y/y in December, in line with November’s 3.0% y/y reading.
• The core goods sector (ex-energy and food) experienced an increase of 1.4% y/y, in line with November’s 1.4% y/y increase and defied expectations of a rebound, likely explained by a slump of -1.3% m/m of Used Cars and Trucks. However, the category most sensitive to tariffs, household furnishings and supplies accelerated to 3.4% y/y from 2.6% y/y.
• There was a bounce-back in shelter costs: it increased by 3.1% y/y, higher than the 3.0% y/y increase recorded in November. The monthly reading was 0.4%.
• In terms of inflation outlook, the current report confirms the improvement recorded in November and provide additional reassurance to the more hawkish members of the Committee reinforcing the shift in focus toward labor market developments.

 

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Dec): 99.5 vs 99.2 expected (prior: 99.0)

• Small business sentiment improved in December, driven by brighter expectations for future business conditions.
• Inflation pressures showed signs of easing, with both actual and planned price increases moderating.
• However, labor market signals were mixed: hiring plans softened, but job openings remained high.

 

US: New home sales (Oct): 737k vs 715k expected (prior: 738k)

• Home sales slipped just 0.1% in October, far better than the expected 10.6% drop, after a 3.8% rise in September.

• However, downward revisions to summer data tempered the optimism. The median home price tumbled 8% y/y, weighed down by bloated inventories

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Dec.): -30.7 vs -33 expected (prior: -33.8)

• Sentiment has regained from the prior month and has rebuilt progressively over the past quarters.
• Opinions have improved about economic outlook, financial situation and willingness to buy items over the period.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Dec.): 50k vs 70k expected (prior: 56k revised from 64k)

• Unemployment ratio has decreased from 4.536% the prior month to 4.375%; payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment ratio has decreased more than expected.
• Payrolls were revised lower the prior month from 64 k to 56 k.
• Payrolls have contracted for good (-21 k after 18 k) and construction sectors (-11 k after 22 k).
• Services were up by 58 k after 32 k the prior month; within services, the picture is mixed across sectors: falling payrolls in trade-transport, professional business but rising for education-health, leisure-hospitality and in public sector.
• Wages were up by 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and up by 3.8% y/y (3.6% y/y prior month).
• Unemployment ratio came lower than expected (rounding at 4.4%) and the 2025 profile has been revised up, with small rises in past monthly data, which minors this current monthly fall in the ratio. Duration of unemployment has decreased this month while we saw a regular rise the past months.
• Finally, payrolls remained on a moderate/weak trend, and unemployment ratio is volatile but not showing a regular strong rise; these data should not generate a consensus at FOMC to ease key rates further in its January meeting, and the cut we expect for Jan. is clearly at risk given current data showing no urgent action needed from the Fed. These data raised questions for the economic policy, about the balance between strong growth and poor payrolls.

 

US: Housing starts (Oct.): 1246k vs 1330k expected (prior: 1306k)

• Data have increased over the month for single-family houses but sharply declined for multi-family houses.
• Building permits remained quite stable at 1412 k after 1415 k the prior month; only a marginal rise was seen in permits for single family houses.
• Housing starts remained globally at very depressed level, which could justify some specific support from the economic policy.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Jan.): 54 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 52.9)

• Preliminary data consumer confidence has shown an improvement from the prior month and from the lows seen in past Nov.
• Both sentiment on current situation and expectations have increased over the month, regaining from the Nov. lows.
• Sentiment has improved on household financial situation and business expectations have regained over the past month. Nevertheless, concerns remained on unemployment and rating approvals about the government action against inflation-unemployment have decreased again.
• Willingness to buy autos and houses have regained from the prior month.
• Inflation expectations remained quite stable over the month and have just moderately declined from the prior quarters; 12M inflation expected at 4.2% (4.2% prior month) and 5-10y expectations increased at 3.4% y/y after 3.2% y/y prior month.

 

France: Consumer spending (Nov.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.4%)

• Sales have decreased for food, autos, and energy while they increased for non-autos durable goods.
• Sales were flat on yearly trend after 0.6% y/y the prior month.

 

France: Industrial production (Nov.): -0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.3% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month; the rebound was driven by the auto sector (2.7% m/m after -4.1% m/m prior month), while production in other sectors has contracted over the month.

 

Germany: Industrial production (Nov.): 0.8% m/m vs -0.7% expected (prior: 2.0% revised from 1.8%)

• Production in manufacturing was up by 2.1% m/m (1.4% m/m prior month) while activity in energy and construction sectors has contracted over the month.
• In details, production has strongly rebounded for engineering and auto sectors over the month.

 

Germany: Trade Balance (Nov.): 13.1bn EUR vs 16.4bn expected (prior: 17.2bn revised from 16.9bn)

• Exports have decreased by 2.5% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month) and imports were up by 0.8% m/m (-1.5% m/m prior month).

 

Spain: Industrial production (Nov.): 1% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)

• Production has rebounded over the month for capital good and energy sectors, while they decreased for durable consumer goods.

 

Norway: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m (prior: 0.1%)

• Prices of household goods and communication have accelerated over the month, while they declined for food and clothes. Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m (- 0.3% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 3.0% y/y prior month to 3.2% y/y and core inflation from 3.0% y/y to 3.1% y/y.

 

Sweden: Industrial production (Nov.): 0.5% m/m (prior: -1.4%)

• Activity in the private sector was driven by services over the month.
• Production in industry was down by 0.1% m/m (-6.8% m/m prior month), while activity in services was up by 0.7% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month).

 

Eurozone: Retail sales (Nov.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0%)

• Sales remained on positive trend after upwards revisions to past month data.
• Sales of food and auto fuel were down over the month, while sales of manufactured goods remained on a positive trend (0.4% m/m, as seen the prior month).

 

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Dec.): 3% as expected (prior: 3%)

• Unemployment ratio remained unchanged in seasonally adjusted data while current data of unemployed have slightly increased over the month.

 

Brazil: CPI (Dec.): 0.33% m/m vs 0.32% expected (prior: 0.18%)

• IPCA monthly inflation has regained after a moderate monthly change the prior month; except housing, all other sectors have shown a more pronounced monthly rise.
• Yearly trend has declined from 4.46% y/y the prior month to 4.26% y/y.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Nov.): 2.5% m/m (prior: -0.7% revised from -0.8%)

• Production in manufacturing was up by 3.1% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month.