Atualização macro diária

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6.4% vs 6.3% expected (prior: 6.4% revised from 6.3%)

• With slightly upward revisions to prior month data, unemployment ratio remained unchanged over the month.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Nov.): 2.2% y/y vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Preliminary data for prices were down by 0.3% m/m as expected and core inflation down by 0.5% m/m over the month.
• Prices of goods (-0.1% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month) and services (-0.8% m/m after 0.1% m/m) were responsible for the monthly contraction in prices, while energy prices have rebounded, up by 0.9% m/m and food remained on a stable monthly rise (up by 0.2% m/m).
• Yearly trend has increased for headline inflation and services (3.5% y/y after 3.4% y/y prior month); trend was less favorable on energy prices (-0.5% y/y after -0.9% y/y prior month); food prices remained on a stable trend by 2.5% y/y as well as good prices up by 0.6% y/y.

Italy: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6.0% vs 6.1% expected (prior: 6.2% revised from 6.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month (-59 k).

Italy: PPI (Oct.): -0.4% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

• Yearly trend has declined to 0.2% y/y after 1.5% y/y prior month.

UK: Nationwide house prices (Nov.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.3%)

• Prices have slightly increased despite uncertainties from budget and rises in taxes on properties.
• Yearly trend was up by 1.8% y/y after 2.4% y/y prior month.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 52.2 vs 51.9 expected (prior: 52.5)

• Final PMI was slightly higher than in first estimate. Production was more sustained, driven by domestic demand over the month but inventories have strongly increased over the month; export demand remained weak.
• Employment has regained on firmer activity; costs were on the rise due to tariffs but passthrough to final client was moderate.

US: ISM Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.2 vs 49 expected (prior: 48.7)

• Business sentiment (index more representative of large and export firms) has marginally decreased from the prior month.
• The detailed picture was mixed: higher opinions on production, inventories and prices paid, but lower opinions on new orders, export orders and employment.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 49.6 vs 49.7 expected (prior: 50)

• Final business sentiment came lower than expected in first estimate.
• Sentiment index has passed below the 50 level, driven lower by France (47.8) and Germany (48.2); sentiment has decreased in Spain, but the index remained above 50 (at 51.5) and it has regained in Italy (at 50.6).
• Opinions have decreased on new orders, inventories and employment, in parallel with lower new orders and export orders over the month; while input costs have increased again, selling prices have decreased.
• Sentiment is mixed as core countries (France and Germany) still faced different headwinds.

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 49.1 vs 49 expected (prior: 48.8)

• Business opinions have slightly increased over the month, but index remained below 50. Sentiment on new orders have slightly decreased.

Poland: GDP (Q3-25): 0.9% q/q (prior: 0.8%)

• GDP remained on sustained growth thanks to private and public consumption and to a sharp rebound in capex (up by 3.5%q after -0.8%q in Q2).

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 54.6 vs 55.1 expected (prior: 55.0 revised from 55.1)

• Business sentiment has slightly decreased over the month; details were mixed as views decreased on production but regained on domestic orders.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 50.2 as expected (prior: 49.7)

• Business sentiment has regained from the prior month, as expected in first estimate, with firmer new orders (index at 50).
• Production has improved over the month on firmer domestic demand while exports remained weak; sentiment has also decreased on inventories and employment; selling prices have decreased for the first time.

UK: M4 (Oct.): 3.5% y/y (prior: 3.7% revised from 3.6%)

• M4 lending was up by 4.3% y/y after 3.6% y/y prior month. Loans to corporate have slightly increased over the month.
• Net lending to consumer sector has slightly decreased over the month; mortgage approvals remained quite stable at 65 k after 65.6 k the prior month.

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.8 (prior: 48.2)

• Business sentiment has increased from the prior month, but the index remained below 50; opinions have decreased on new orders but regained on employment.

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48 (prior: 46.5)

• Business sentiment has regained over the month; opinions have increased on new orders and related index remained below 50.

Turkey: GDP (Q3-25): 1.1% q/q vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.6%)

• Growth was more sustained than expected in Q4; domestic demand has rebounded thanks to firmer consumption (both private and public) and a rebound in capex. Inventories were a drag on growth in Q3-25.

Germany: CPI (Nov. Prel.): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• CPI y/y 2.6% vs 2.4% expected (prior: 2.3%)
• Inflation unexpectedly rose to the highest level in 9 months, which was probably driven by package holidays and rising fuel costs.
• This should not prevent inflation from falling below 2% next year.

Germany: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

• Y/y: 1.3% vs 0.1% expected (prior: 3.4% revised from 2.8%)
• An unexpected dip in October, but this data is notoriously volatile.

Germany: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• The number of unemployed people rose by 1k vs 4.5k expected.

France: CPI (Nov. Prel.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• CPI y/y: 0.8% vs 1.0% expected (prior: 0.8%)
• Inflation surprised to the downside, helped by a slowdown in prices in the service sector. Manufacturing prices also contributed negatively.

France: Consumer spending (Oct.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Y/y: 0.4% vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

Italy: CPI (Nov. Prel.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• CPI y/y: 1.1% vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.3%)
• Core inflation edged down to 1.8% from 1.9%.

Spain: CPI (Nov. Prel.): 0.0% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• CPI y/y: 3.1% vs 3.0% expected (prior: 3.2%)
• Lower electricity prices explain the slight decline in November's inflation.

Switzerland: GDP (Q3): -0.5% q/q vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• GDP y/y: 0.5% vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.2%)
• The final GDP release confirmed the flash estimate, but the details are less negative than the headline suggests.
• The decline was largely driven by falling pharma exports and therefore not related to the 39% US tariffs, but is due to the strong front-loading ahead of potential tariffs.
• Other negative contributions were contracting government consumption (-0.2% q/q), equipment/software (-0.1% q/q) and construction investment (-0.2% q/q). Reassuringly, private consumption economy expanded at a solid 0.4% q/q.
• The recent trade agreement between Switzerland and the US to reduce tariffs to 15% removes downside risks from the growth outlook.

Switzerland: KOF (Nov.): 101.7 vs 101.0 expected (prior: 101.5 revised from 101.3)

• The Swiss economy's leading indicator has held steady this year despite the political turbulence surrounding tariffs.

Eurozone: M3 (Oct.): 2.8% y/y as expected (prior: 2.8%)

• M1 was up by 5.2% y/y (5.0% y/y prior month); M2 was up by 2.9% y/y (2.7% y/y prior month).
• Credit to the private sector was up by 2.9% y/y after 2.7% y/y the prior month.

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Nov.): -9.3 vs -8.3 expected (prior: -8.5 revised from -8.2)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions have declined on production, new orders, exports and employment; selling prices were on the rise from the prior month.

Eurozone: Services confidence (Nov.): 5.7 vs 4.4 expected (prior: 4.2 revised from 4.0)

• Sentiment has rebounded further in services; views were more positive about past activity, future demand and selling prices were on the rise.
• Views on employment remained stable over the month.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Nov.): -14.2 as expected (prior: -14.2)

• Sentiment remained stable over the month. Views were negative on present and future financial situation; opinions were less negative on global activity; opinions remained cautious on future purchases.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Dec.): -23.2 vs -23.5 expected (prior: -24.1)

• Views were less negative over the month; opinions were negative the prior month on inflation and income.

Italy: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 95 vs 97.6 expected (prior: 97.6)

• Sentiment has decreased form the prior month due to lower opinions on economy and personal financial situation.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Nov.): 89.6 vs 88.2 expected (prior: 88.4 revised from 88.3)

• Sentiment has decreased on manufacturing and construction sectors while it has increased on services.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 96.1 (prior: 96.8)

• Sentiment has decreased due to concerns on personal situation while views on macro remained constructive.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Nov.): 100.9 (prior: 100.4 revised from 100.2)

• Business confidence has slightly increased in manufacturing and construction sectors.