Atualização macro diária
quarta-feira, outubro 22
UK inflation (Sept.) remained on stable 3.8% y/y trend
UK: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Inflation was more contained than expected; prices of holidays-fares were heavily down over the more and they balanced some rises seen on clothes and education.
- Yearly trend remained stable at 3.8% y/y (fears of touching 4% y/y) and core inflation came at 3.5% y/y after 3.6% y/y the prior month; services remained on stable trend at 4.7% y/y.
- While inflation remained elevated in absolute, it remained below the 4% y/y estimated by the BoE; these data, in parallel with a downward trend in employment, could reopen some probability of an adjustment in key rates at year end.
UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): 0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Prices have declined on food and energy over the month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated on base effects to 3.4% y/y after 3.1% y/y prior month.
UK: PPI Output prices (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.2%)
- Prices of fuels and in manufacturing have declined over the month.
- Yearly trend has regained from 0.2% y/y prior month to 0.8% y/y.
Poland: Retail sales (Sept.): -2.7% m/m vs -2.2% expected (prior: -0.4%)
- Sales have decreased in all sectors except for autos which have rebounded after prior month fall.
- The yearly trend has accelerated, up by 6.4% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month, underpinned by strong sales in textile and auto sectors.
- Separately, consumer confidence has decreased more than expected over the months (index at-10.9% after -8.3 prior month); future economic conditions and employment have clouded confidence.
terça-feira, outubro 21
Swiss exports have slightly regained in Sept.
Switzerland: M3 (Sept.): 3.9% y/y (prior: 4.5% revised from 4.6%)
- M2 was up by 15.8% y/y after 16.6% y/y prior month and M1 up by 20.6% after 21.8% y/y prior month.
- Time deposits were down by 48.2% y/y (-46.8)
Switzerland: Trade balance (Sept.): 4.07 Bn CHF (prior: 3.88Bn)
- Real exports: 2.7% m/m after being flat the prior month; real imports: 1.9% m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month.
- Exports of watches remained under contraction but less pronounced than the prior month (-3.1% y/y after -16.5% y/y the prior month; -55% y/y towards the US).
segunda-feira, outubro 20
Limited decline in German PPI due to less negative trend in domestic oil costs
Germany: PPI (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.5%)
- Energy prices were down by 0.3% m/m (-1% m/m prior month), due to falling electricity prices (-0.5% m/m), while heating oil prices were up by 2.5% m/m (-5.2% m/m the prior month).
- Yearly trend was less negative, down by 1.7% y/y after -2.2 % y/y the prior month.
Poland: Industrial production (Sept.): 16% m/m vs 13.7% expected (prior: -7% revised from -7.1%)
- As seen past months, industrial production remained highly volatile; all sectors have shown a rebound, mainly driven by manufacturing sector.
- The yearly trend, just slightly less volatile, was up by 7.4% y/y.
sexta-feira, outubro 17
Eurozone final CPI (Sept.): modest monthly rise but yearly trend slightly higher
Eurozone: CPI (Sept.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Final data have confirmed the modest rise of prices over the month.
- Prices have decreased over the month for energy, food and services (-0.9% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month), but were up for goods (2.2% m/m, due to a rebound in clothes as seen in national indices).
- Yearly trend has marginally regained from 2.0 % y/y the prior month to 2.2% y/y, and from 2.3% y/ to 2.4% y/y on core inflation.
- Food prices (3% y/y) and services (3.2% y/y) remained the largest driver of this yearly trend; trend in energy prices has turned less negative (from -2% y/y the prior month to -0.4% y/y) while trend on good prices remained stable at 0.8% y/y.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 8.7% as expected (prior: 8.8%)
- Unemployed has marginally decreased over the month.
quinta-feira, outubro 16
US: rebound of confidence in housing; UK: firmer industrial activity in some sectors
US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 37 vs 33 expected (prior: 32)
- Confidence in the housing market has rebounded over the month; opinions turned more positive on both current and future sales and a firmer demand.
Italy: CPI (Sept.): 1.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Final data confirmed the large rebound in prices due to strong rise in clothes (26% m/m), and in hotel-restaurants costs.
- On the opposite, prices of energy-transport and culture were down over the month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.6% y/y the prior month to 1.8%y/y.
UK: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.9%)
- Industrial activity was down in mining and oil-gas sectors but rebounded in the manufacturing sector (0.7% m/m after -1.1% m/m the prior month).
- Within manufacturing, production was down for durable goods, intermediate and energy sectors; only investment goods and non-durable production was up over the month.
- Separately, activity in services was flat over the month (also flat the prior month) and construction down by 0.3% m/m; the GDP monthly proxy was up by 0.1% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month).