Atualização macro diária

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Feb): 98.8 vs 99.6 expected (prior: 99.3)

• Sentiment among US small businesses fell slightly for a second consecutive month, partly reversing the positive trend seen at the end of last year, but remains broadly stable by recent standards.
• Owners are increasingly worried about the outlook for sales and the economy, with the optimism index slipping. Pricing power is fading as the pace of price increases continues to weaken.
• The survey was conducted throughout February and does not yet incorporate the surge in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict.
• Looking ahead, a larger share of owners may raise selling prices to pass through higher input costs.

US: Existing home sales (Feb): 4.09M vs 3.88M expected (prior: 4.02M revised from 3.91M)

• Sales of previously owned American homes beat expectations in February, lifted by a fleeting improvement in affordability as mortgage rates dipped to a 3-year low of 6.09%, nudging more buyers to close deals.
• Yet the wider housing market remains subdued, with activity still far shy of its pre-pandemic cadence of roughly 5m-6m annualized sales, and a durable recovery likely contingent on steadier rate relief and more supply.

Germany: Trade Balance (Jan): 21.2bn EUR vs 15.4bn expected (prior: 17.4bn revised from 17.1bn)

• Germany’s trade surplus widened sharply as imports fell 5.9% m/m, outpacing a 2.3% drop in exports.
• The slump in shipments was concentrated in Europe: exports to EU partners fell 4.8%, including a 5.7% decline to the euro area and a 2.7% drop to non-euro EU members.
• Beyond Europe, the picture was mixed. Exports to third countries edged up 1%, buoyed by an 11.7% jump in sales to the United States, Germany’s largest market. By contrast, exports to the United Kingdom slipped 2.6%, shipments to China tumbled 13.2%, and sales to Russia fell 5.9%.

Germany: Industrial production (Jan): -0.5% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: -1.0% revised from -1.9%)

• Germany’s industry stumbled in January, dimming hopes of a quick rebound despite February’s uptick in the PMI.
• Manufacturing output fell 2.4% m/m (sa), partly offset by a 2.9% rise in construction and an 11.8% jump in energy.
• Factory orders plunged 11.1% m/m, but excluding volatile bulk orders they slipped just 0.4%, suggesting the underlying trend remains steadier than the headline.
• If energy prices keep climbing, input costs will rise further, threatening production and souring manufacturing sentiment.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Feb): -92k vs 55k expected (prior: 126k revised from 130k)

• Change in manufacturing payrolls: -12k vs -2k expected (prior: +5k)
• Unemployment rate: 4.4% vs 4.3% expected (prior: 4.3%)
• The payrolls decline was one of the largest since the pandemic, with broad-based weakness; the 3-month moving average fell to 5.7k in February.
• Manufacturing payrolls fell to their lowest level since January 2022 despite all the measures taken by the current and former Presidents. Construction jobs were down 11k in February after a 48k increase in January.
• The weather, strikes (explaining the decline in health-care employment) and methodology undoubtedly had a negative impact on today's figures, but this report tends to confirm the fragility of the labor market, which had been highlighted by other indicators.
• It would be wrong to put too much weight on one month of data, but this could undermine the Fed's latest view that the US labor market was stabilizing.

US: Retail sales (Jan.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• Ex auto and gasoline: 0.3% vs 0.2% (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.0%)
• Online retailers benefited from a 1.9% sales increase, which was notably offset by significant declines in autos (-0.9%, gasoline stations (-2.9%, reflecting a lower price) but also in several other categories such as health care, clothing, electronics and appliances.
• The only services category, restaurants, saw a 0.2% decline.
• Here as well, the weather has been a factor explaining part of the decline in consumer activity (and the surge at non-store retailers).

US: Average hourly earnings (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Y/y: 3.8% vs 3.7% expected (prior: 3.7%)
• Slightly above expectations but, since April, the y/y growth rate has fluctuated between 3.7% and 4.0%

Eurozone: GDP (Q4 T.): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• GDP y/y: 1.2% vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.4%)
• Slightly downward revision to GDP growth at the end of last year, but that is due to a larger-than-expected contraction in Ireland (-3.8% vs -0.6% previously reported) whose GDP is notoriously volatile due to the contribution of large multinational corporates.

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb.28): 213k vs 215k expected (prior: 213k revised from 212k)

• Continuing claims: 1868 k after 1822 k the prior week.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q4-25): 2.8% q/q vs 1.9% expected (prior: 5.2% revised from 4.9%)

• Productivity remained on a sustained trend, higher than expected but slower after the strong rebound seen in Q3.
• Output was up by 2.6%q after 5.4%q in Q3; wages were up by 5.7%q after 3.3%q in Q3-25.
• Unit labor costs have rebounded up by 2.8%q after -1.8%q in Q3.
• Despite higher labor costs, productivity remained sustained in Q4-25.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Jan.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.5%)

• Sales were down over the month; the monthly fall was mainly driven by auto fuels (-1.1% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month) and by lower sales of goods, while food was slightly positive.
• Trend remained fragile and confidence could be hit by geopolitical uncertainties and rising gasoline prices.

France: Industrial production (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.7%)

• Production has rebounded but the move was driven by the transport (aircraft) and utility sectors; production of refineries and autos were down over the month as well other sectors.

Spain: Industrial production (Jan.): -0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -2.4% revised from -2.5%)

• Production has contracted further contrary to consensus expectations.
• Production was down over the month in all sectors except energy; a sharp contraction was seen in consumer and intermediate goods sectors over the month.

Sweden: CPI (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to still sustained monthly inflation; core inflation was estimated being up by 0.6% m/m after -0.4% m/m prior month. Inflation stayed resilient in services while prices declined over the month for food and goods.
• Yearly trend is expected to decline to 1.7% y/y (2.0% y/y the prior month) and core inflation at 1.4% y/y (1.7% y/y prior month).

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Feb.): 3.0% vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.9%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.