Atualização macro diária

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr 4): 219k vs 210k expected (prior: 203k revised from 202k)

• New jobless claims rose more than expected in late March and early April, a period often prone to statistical noise because of holidays.
• Even so, initial claims have remained below their level in the comparable week of 2025 for eight straight weeks.
• More telling, continuing claims a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, fell by 38,000 to 1.794 million, near a two-year low. That gradual decline could hint at a labor market that is stabilizing.

US: GDP (4Q T): 0.5% q/q vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Real GDP growth was revised down again, to 0.5% q/q in the third estimate, from 0.7% previously.
• Even so, final sales to private domestic purchasers, a gauge of underlying demand, held steady.

US: Core PCE deflator (Feb): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Headline PCE rose in line with expectations in February, while the annual rate held at 2.8%. The pressure was coming mainly from goods (contributing 20 bps to the core reading vs 7 bps in January).
• Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, edged down on the month. Year-on-year, it eased from 3.1% to 3.0%.
• The supercore measure (core services excluding housing) slowed to 0.22% in February from 0.48% in January, signaling a further cooling in underlying services inflation.
• These figures predate the Iran conflict and the ensuing surge in energy prices.

US: Personal spending (Feb): 0.5% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• Even before the conflict, consumers tightened their belts. In February, personal income unexpectedly fell by 0.1% m/m, versus a forecast rise of 0.3%. The drop was driven by weaker transfer payments (notably Social Security) and lower dividend income; labor income rose a modest 0.2%.
• With spending outpacing income, the saving rate slipped to 4.0% from 4.5% in January, before March’s gasoline shock hit.
• Real consumer spending rose just 0.1%, undershooting expectations of 0.2%.

Germany: Industrial production (Feb): -0.3% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.5%)

• German industrial output disappointed in February, dragged down by a slide in construction. Manufacturing was merely flat, following a sharp drop around the turn of the year.
• Within manufacturing, the picture was mixed: production rose in several categories, including transport, but steep falls in pharmaceuticals (-4.4% m/m), computers (-3.9%) and furniture (-4.2%) weighed on the headline.
• The case for a rebound looks thin. New manufacturing orders offered little sign of a broad-based recovery, and surging energy costs have darkened sentiment: the latest Ifo survey reported a deterioration in business expectations across all major sectors.

Germany: Trade Balance (Feb): 19.8bn EUR vs 18.5bn expected (prior: 20.3bn revised from 21.2bn)

• Germany’s trade surplus narrowed in February as exports rose 3.6% m/m to a three-year high, while imports climbed 4.7%.

Eurozone: PPI (Feb): -0.7% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.7%)

• Producer prices cooled further in February. Energy costs fell by 2.4%, reversing a 1.3% rise the month before, while prices for non-durable goods slipped 0.2% for a second month running.
• The deceleration was broad-based: intermediate goods inflation eased to 0.3% from 1%, capital goods to 0.3% from 0.6%, and durable goods to 0.2% from 0.8%.
• Country-level moves were uneven but mostly down. Spain saw the sharpest drop (-3.1%), followed by Ireland (-2.6%). Germany registered a modest 0.5% decline, France a 0.2% fall.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Feb): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.1%)

• Sales of food, drink and tobacco slipped 0.5%, snapping a two-month streak of gains, while non-food purchases flatlined after two consecutive declines.
• By contrast, fuel trade perked up, rising 0.7% and undoing the prior month’s 0.8% fall.
• Across the big economies, the picture was mostly softer: Germany led the pullback (-0.6%), followed by the Netherlands (-0.3%) and France (-0.1%). Italy and Spain were unchanged.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Mar): 3.0% as expected (prior: 3.0%)

• The unemployment rate came in line with expectations.

Germany: Factory orders (Feb): 0.9% m/m vs 3.0% expected (prior: -11.1%)

• German factory orders picked up ahead of the Iran war, though by less than forecasters had hoped. Excluding large-scale contracts, orders rose a sturdier 3.5%.
• Looking ahead, higher public outlays on infrastructure and defence should lend support at home. Even so, the Iran conflict threatens to sap manufacturing sentiment and muddy the outlook for further gains in orders.

US: Durable goods orders (Feb P): -1.4% m/m vs -1.2% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from 0.0%)

• US business-equipment orders rebounded in February, hinting that firms front-loaded investment ahead of escalating tensions with Iran.
• The headline was dragged down by a 5.4% fall in transportation equipment, as nondefense aircraft orders slumped 28.6% to $19.2bn. Excluding transport, orders rose 0.8%, with gains in primary metals (2.2% to $28.6bn) and machinery (1.5% to $41.1bn).
• Bookings for core capital goods (nondefense, ex-aircraft) increased 0.6% after a downwardly revised 0.4% drop, while shipments in the same category, feeding into equipment investment in GDP, climbed 0.9%.

Spain: PMI Services (Mar): 53.3 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Spain’s services sentiment beat expectations in March, lifted by stronger new orders, even as growth slowed to a nine-month low amid uncertainty from the Middle East conflict.
• In line with peers, input costs jumped at the fastest pace in nearly three years, driven by higher energy prices.

• Output prices rose at the quickest rate since August 2025.

US: Initial jobless claims (March 28): 202k vs 212k expected (prior: 211k revised from 210k)

• Continuing claims: 1841k vs 1837k expected (prior: 1816k)
• Initial claims fell to one of the lowest levels in the last two years, confirming that the labor market remains stuck in a "low-hire, low-fire" phase.

US: Trade balance (Feb): -57.3 bn USD vs -60.6 bn expected (prior: -54.7 bn revised from -54.5 bn)

• Imports: +4.3% vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.6%)
• Exports: +4.2% vs -2.3% expected (prior: +5.6%)
• The trade deficit slightly widened in February, but less than expected. Exports were driven by gold and natural gas shipments, and imports by computers, semiconductors and automobiles.

Switzerland: CPI (March): 0.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• CPI y/y: 0.3% vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)
• Core CPI: 0.4% y/y as expected (prior: 0.4%)
• Unsurprisingly, prices for petroleum products rose sharply in March, +10.6% m/m, pushing up imported inflation by 1.3pp to -0.3% y/y, its highest level in more than two years.
• By contrast, domestic inflation fell back 0.1pp to its January level of 0.5% y/y, or 0.2% ex rents, which confirms that inflationary pressures remain muted.
• Swiss inflation is comparatively insulated from rising oil prices: energy’s weight in the Swiss CPI is roughly half that of the eurozone, and electricity tariffs are regulated. On top of that, a strong franc is reinforcing disinflationary pressures. Taken together, these factors make a rate hike in 2026 unlikely.

Italy: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.0% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Y/y: 1.6% vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.5%)