Atualização macro diária

Germany: Zew (Jan.): 59.6 vs 50 expected (prior: 45.8)

• Expectations have strongly rebounded, and the index was back to the highs seen in 2020-21.
• Sentiment on current situation has also improved (index at -72.7 after -81 the prior month).
• By sector, sentiment has improved in industrial sectors, with a large rebound seen in autos, pharma, engineering and construction.

Germany: PPI (Dec.): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Prices have contracted over the month due to falling prices of energy and food over the month.
• Prices of basic and capital goods were slightly up over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined further, from -2.3% y/y prior month to -2.5% y/y.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Dec.): -0.2% m/m (prior: -0.5%)

• Prices remained under contraction over the month.
• Import prices were down by 0.5% m/m (-0.4% m/m prior month) and producer prices down by 0.1% m/m (-0.5% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined further at -1.8% y/y (-1.6% y/y prior month). Import prices were down by 2.8% y/y (-2.5% y/y prior month) and producer prices down by 1.3% y/y (-1.2% y/y prior month).

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Nov.): 5.1% as expected (prior: 5.1%)

• Unemployment has increased by 103 k over the 3-month period (64 k the previous period).
• Claimant count in Dec. was up to 4.4% after 4.3% the prior month and jobless claims have increased to 17.9 k after -3.3k the prior month.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Nov.): 4.7% y/y vs 4.6% expected (prior: 4.8% revised from 4.7%)

• Wage growth has continued to moderate but disparities still exist across sector.
• Wage in public sector remained sustained, up by 7.8% y/y (7.7% y/y prior month); in services, wage growth remained below 5% at 4.8% y/y (4.9% y/y prior month).
• Wages were up by 4.2% y/y in manufacturing after 4.4% y/y prior month.
• Labor market remained on slowdown trend and unemployment on a gradual rise, while wage growth adjusts.

Eurozone: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Final data confirmed the first estimate of monthly inflation; energy prices were down by 0.8% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month), and good prices down by 0.3% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month), while services have rebounded (0.7% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.1% y/y to 1.9% y/y (2.0% y/y in first estimate); prices for food (2.6% y/y) and services (3.4% y/y) stayed above the 2% trend while prices of goods remained on a downward trend (0.4% y/y after 0.5% y/y prior month) and energy prices have declined further (-1.9% y/y after -0.5% y/y prior month).
• Headline inflation could decline further entering 2026 if energy prices continue to fall and euro currency to remain firm.

US: Industrial production (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)

• Production of autos was down by 1.1% m/m, while activity in other sectors has shown a moderate monthly rise; activity in utilities was up by 2.6% m/m.

US: NAHB housing market index (Jan.): 37 vs 40 expected (prior: 39)

• Opinions in housing have deteriorated over the month; sentiment has decreased on future sales and demand over the month.

Germany: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Prices of energy and food were down over the month, while services remained on a regular monthly rise (0.3%m/m, up by 3.5% y/y).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.6% y/y prior month to 2.2% y/y.

Italy: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Final prices have shown new monthly increases in transport, housing and leisure goods, while prices for communication and hotels-restaurants have decreased.
• Yearly trend has slightly regained from 1.1% y/y prior month to 1.2% y/y.

US: Empire manufacturing (Jan.): 7.7 vs 1 expected (prior: -3.7 revised from -3.9)

• Business sentiment has rebounded over the month. Index was volatile past months, but underlying trend is improving over the quarters.
• The improvement was driven by new orders and shipments, but opinions have nevertheless decreased for employment and prices.
• The 6-month index has slightly decreased over the month, but this index remained high; the decrease was driven by lower new orders.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Jan.): 12.6 vs -1.4 expected (prior: -8.8 revised from -10.2)

• Business sentiment has rebounded over the month; the index has regained after 3 months of depressed data.
• The improvement was driven by higher orders, and shipments, while opinions have decreased for prices paid and employment.
• The 6-month index has decreased over the month on lower new orders.

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan. 10): 198k vs 215k expected (prior: 208k)

• Continuing claims: 1884 k after 1903 k the prior week.

Eurozone: Industrial production (Nov.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.8%)

• Production remained on a firm monthly trend, but disparities remained large across sectors; activity has decreased in energy and consumer goods while it has rebounded in capital goods.
• Disparities and volatility also remained large in industrial activity across euro countries over the month.

France: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Final data confirmed moderate rise in monthly inflation.
• Prices have decreased for energy (-1.6% m/m; -6.8% y/y) and manufacturing prices (-0.3% m/m).
• On the opposite, prices of fresh food were sustained (up by 1.4% m/m) and services remained sustained (up by 0.4% m/m; 2.1% y/y).
• The yearly trend has slightly declined from 0.8% y/y prior month to 0.7% y/y.

Germany: Wholesale price (Dec.): -0.2% m/m (prior: 0.3%)

• Yearly trend has declined from 1.5% y/y prior month to 1.2% y/y.

Italy: Industrial production (Nov.): 1.5% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1.0%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded in all sectors, except activity in durable consumer goods down by 1.3% m/m over the month after -0.9% m/m prior month.

Spain: CPI (Dec.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Final data were in line with first estimates; prices of clothes have declined over the month, while prices of recreation-culture goods were on the rise.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.2% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y.

Poland: CPI (Dec.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Prices have sharply decreased for clothes and moderately for fuels; prices have shown some acceleration on prices for household equipment.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.5% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y.

Sweden: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Prices have decreased for utilities, household goods and restaurants-hotels, but have accelerated for culture-leisure over the month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 0.3% y/y for headline inflation and declined from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.3% y/y for core inflation.

UK: Industrial production (Nov.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.1%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 2.1% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month; the rebound was driven by transport equipment, pharma, textile, intermediary and basic goods.
• In parallel, services activity was up by 0.3% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month, and construction down by 1.3% m/m (-1.2% m/m prior month).
• Monthly proxy for GDP was up by 0.3% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month.