With UBP’s Investment Outlook 2023 wrapping up its global roadshow, our Asia Senior Economist Carlos Casanova takes stock of the major macroeconomic events that marked 2022 in and around China and looks ahead to the landscape unfolding in 2023.
Key takeaways:
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Asian economies have proved resilient, underpinned by factors such as increasing domestic demand, moderate inflation and renewed long-term capital inflows
- So despite interest rate rises and high volatility, a consumption-led rebound is expected to start in the spring and to last through 2024
- GDP-weighted average growth in Asia, led by China, is forecast at 4.2% vs. a global rate of 2.3% (3.8% for emerging markets)
- China is set to be the driver of the region’s outperformance with its strong policy support and reopening momentum, despite headwinds which include low visibility on Covid outcomes, the debt overhang in the housing sector, and the risk of falling demand if recession materialises in the US
