As we approach the beginning of a new year, UBP’s Global Head of Forex Strategy Peter Kinsella gives us an overview of the key currency trends to look out for in the next phase of the cycle as inflation starts easing and monetary policy tightening peaks.

要点:

  • 在多项因素的互动下,预测美元在新一年将小幅转弱,这包括通胀压力纾缓、加息步伐减慢、美国经常账逆差庞大,以及美元估值偏高等。
  • 因此,收益率较高的新兴市场货币如巴西雷亚尔和墨西哥比索等将获益。
  • 至于欧元和英镑的走势将取决于能源价格。