US: Initial jobless claims (June 22): 233k vs 235k expected (prior: 239k revised from 238k)
- Continuing claims: 1839 k after 1821 k the prior week.
US: Durable goods orders (May): 0.1% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.6%)
- Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core goods) were down by 0.6% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
- Orders for aircraft were down by 2.8% m/m after -14.6% m/m prior month; orders were negative for all segments except for autos, metals, and computers.
- Shipments were down by 0.3% m/m after 1.2% m/m the prior month; shipments for core goods were also down by 1.5% m/m after 2.1% m/m prior month.
- Inventories were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
- Despite improving sentiment in latest PMI manufacturing, momentum for durable goods has decreased for the month under review and it has also turned highly volatile the prior months.
US: GDP (Q1-24): 1.4% q/q as expected (prior: 3.4%)
- Final GDP has shown downwards revisions from the 1st estimate (1.6%) to this latest (1.4%).
- Consumption was slightly revised down and has slowed down from Q4 (3.3%) to Q1 at 1.5%; performances in Q1 were mainly driven by services (3.3% after 3.4% in Q4), while goods were sharply down (-2.3% q/q after 3.0% in Q4).
- Investment was globally firmer than in first estimate; it has increased by 4.4% q/q after 0.7% q/q in Q4; main drivers were residential (16% q/q after 2.8%), R&D (7.7% q/q after 4.3%) and it has shown a reversal in equipment (1.6% q/q after -1.1% in Q4).
- Net exports contribution has turned negative in Q1 (-0.65 pp after 0.25 pp in Q4). Public consumption has added 0.31 pp to Q1 quarterly growth after 0.79 pp in Q4.
- Final private sales were up by 2.6% q/q after 3.3% q/q in Q4: this domestic demand remained sustained while other sectors offered various speed and sometimes diverging trend.
US: Pending home sales (May): -2.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -7.7%)
- Sales have declined further over the month; over 4 districts, sales have contracted in 2 districts and regained in the other 2 during the month.
- It seemed higher mortgage rates and prices have constrained the demand.
Eurozone: M3 (May): 1.6% y/y vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1.3%)
- M2 was up by 0.7% y/y after 0.1% y/y the prior month; M1 was down by 4.9% y/y after -5.9% y/y the prior month.
- Credit to private sector was up by 0.6% y/y after 0.7% y/y the prior month.
- Credit to current consumption and to firms (at more than 5 years) remained dynamic (2.8% y/y, 1.7% y/y resp.) while credit to housing and short-term credit to firms were flat and negative over the past months.
- By country, the situation is mixed; credit to corporates (based on change in monthly flows) was firmer in Germany, Italy, and Netherlands, but has contracted in Spain and was slowing down in France. For housing, credit has rebounded in Germany and Netherlands over the past 3 months.
Italy: Consumer confidence (June): 98.3 vs 97 expected (prior: 96.4)
- Consumer confidence has recovered after a pause in April and reached highest levels YTD.
- Opinions have improved on both current and future situation but rebounded the most on expectations.
- Views were significantly more positive about future economy, financial situation, and unemployment.
Italy: Manufacturing confidence (June): 86.8 vs 88.6 expected (prior: 88.2 revised from 88.4)
- Contrary to consumer confidence, sentiment in manufacturing remained on a weakening trend with some volatility.
- Opinions have deteriorated on orders and production over the month and reached lowest levels YTD.
Italy: PPI (May): 0.3% m/m (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.5%)
- Yearly trend has regained from -8% y/y the prior month to -4.9% y/y.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (May): 0.2% y/y vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Sales have decreased over the month by 0.6%; all sectors were down over the month except personal goods.
Eurozone: Industrial confidence (June): -10.1 vs -9.6 expected (prior: -9.9)
- Sentiment has slightly weakened over the month. Opinions have decreased on orders and past production but were less negative on exports and employment.
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (June): -14 as expected (prior: -14.3)
- Consumer confidence was slightly better than the prior month.
- Opinions have improved on past situation, but the concerns remained about future prices and unemployment.
Eurozone: Service confidence (June): 6.5 vs 6.3 expected (prior: 6.8 revised from 6.5)
- Sentiment has decreased after upward revisions to prior month data.
- Opinions have decreased on current demand, employment (current and future) and have pointed to firmer prices.
- Opinions have both declined in retail and construction sectors.
Norway: Unemployment rate (May): 4.1% vs 4% expected (prior: 4.1%)
Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (June): 99.2 vs 98.5 expected (prior: 98.6)
- Business confidence has slightly increased from the prior month; sentiment has improved in private sectors, construction, and retail sectors.
Sweden: Consumer confidence (June): 93.3 (prior: 91.3)
- Consumer confidence has regained further; sentiment has improved on current situation (economy and financial situation) and slightly increased about future economy and purchases.