Synthèse Daily Macro

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q2-26): 1.4% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.3%)

• Output was up by 1.7%q after 1.5%q in Q1 and total wages were up by 2.7%q after 2.1% q/q.
• Unit labor costs remained on stable trend at 1.3%q in Q2 and Q1.
• Productivity has slowed down from 2.9% y/y in Q1 to 2.2% y/y in Q2, but it is still an elevated trend.

• US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 1): 199k vs 205k expected (prior: 198k revised from 197k)
• Continuing claims: 1801 k after 1777 k prior week.

US: Wholesale inventories (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Inventories have increased for autos, computers and machinery over the month; total sales were down by 3% m/m, driven by lower purchases of oil.

Eurozone: Retail sales (June): -0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)

• Sales of auto fuel were up by 1.5% m/m while purchases of food and manufactured goods have contracted over the month.

Germany: Factory orders (June): 3.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 1.9%)

• Orders have rebounded over the month, but prior month data were revised lower.
• Orders were sustained for capital goods (computers, engineering) and consumer goods, while they decreased for intermediate goods.
• Domestic orders have surged (7.8% m/m) while foreign orders were on a modest rise (0.2% m/m.
• Defense, infrastructure and climate spendings, related to budget plan, are driving the German industry.

Italy: Industrial production (June): -1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Industrial activity has contracted further over the month. Production of energy has increased over the month, while activity has declined in all other sectors; the largest monthly fall was seen in capital goods.

Spain: Industrial production (June): -0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 1.2%)

• Production has reversed over the month; production was strongly up for energy and intermediate sectors, but down for capital and consumer goods.

Sweden: CPI (July): -0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to falling electricity and energy prices mainly due to lower taxes. Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.3% y/y prior month to 0.7% y/y, but core inflation accelerated from 0.4% to 0.6% y/y.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (July): 3.1% as expected (prior: 3.1%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month, but unemployment rate (sa data) remained unchanged.

US: ADP Employment change (July): 44k vs 65k expected (prior: 95k revised from 98k)

• Job creations have decreased over the month; the largest fall were seen in medium-sized firms (from 29 k the prior month to 8k) and in services (from 93 k to 47k).
• Within services, a reversal was seen in leisure (from 2 k to -11 k), trade-transport (from 15k to -8k) and jobs created decreased also in education-health (from 48k to 36k).

US: Services PMI (July): 54.6 vs 53.6 expected (prior: 51.2)

• Final business sentiment came stronger than the first estimate and increased further from the prior month.
• Domestic demand was stronger thanks to Independence Day and FIFA sport events, while exports remained weak.
• Employment was modestly up while costs continue to rise above trend.
• Selling prices have strongly rebounded over the month

US: ISM Services (July): 54.1 vs 54.5 expected (prior: 54)

• ISM has increased less than expected over the month (more large firms and export oriented than the PMI index).
• Activity was stronger over the month, and new orders and exports have also increased but backlog of orders have decreased.
• Employment has decreased and prices paid have strongly rebounded after a pause in June.

Eurozone: Services PMI (July): 51.7 vs 51.6 expected (prior: 49.4)

• Business sentiment in services has been confirmed higher than prior month. Sentiment on new business has increased and the related index passed above 50 at 52.4.
• The index has increased in France and Germany but remained below 50; index has strongly rebounded in Spain (58.3 after 54.2) and increased further in Italy (52.5 after 50.2).
• Services have benefited from a stronger domestic demand, while exports remained weak. Employment has slightly increased, and costs and selling prices have modestly increased over the month.

Eurozone: PPI (June): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Energy prices were down by 1.5% m/m (-1.0% prior month), while prices for intermediate goods were up by 0.3% m/m and prices for capital and consumer goods up by 0.2% m/m.
• Yearly trend has declined from 5.9% y/y prior month to 4.6% y/y.

France: Industrial production (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Production has increased over the month in electricity and utilities, while it has strongly declined for manufacturing sector (-1.1% m/m after -1.0% m/m prior month).

UK: Services PMI (July): 52.1 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 48.8)

• Business sentiment in services has increased more than initially estimated from the prior month.
• Activity and new orders have rebounded over the month, but exports have weakened, except demand from Europe.
• Despite this rebound in activity, employment remained under contraction; input prices have slowed down but costs and selling prices have continued to trend higher, even at more modest pace.

US: Trade balance (June): -73.3 bn USD vs -73 bn expected (prior: -77.6 bn)

• Exports were down by 0.9% m/m (-3.2% m/m prior month) and imports down by 1.8% m/m (3.3% m/m prior month).
• Exports remained sustained for autos and consumers goods, while imports have contracted over the month on all major products.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (June): 7359k vs 7454k expected (prior: 7537k revised from 7594k)

• Job openings have decreased over the month and prior month data were revised lower.
• Openings have increased for trade-transport sector, but decreased for education-health, professional business and leisure hospitality. Demand for health sector has decreased after a surge in demand in April and May.
• Hirings have increased over the month, with some sectors on the rise: trade-transport, business services and education-health.
• Quitters and separations have slightly accelerated over the month, with still the same sectors under the spotlights: trade-transport, education-health and business services.
• Demand for labor has moderated but some sectors concentrate the demand and also the turnover.

US: Factory orders (June): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -1.3%)

• Orders for capital goods nondefense and ex-aircraft (core orders) were up by 1.2% m/m after 1.9% m/m prior month.
• Shipments were down by 0.2% m/m (1.6% m/m prior month), but strongly up for core goods (2% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month).
• Inventories were up by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and up by 0.2% m/m for core goods (0.1% m/m prior month).

US: Manufacturing PMI (July): 53.9 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 53.9)

• Final data pointed to a stable business sentiment form the prior month.
• Production has increased as well as new orders but at a slow pace; demand was mainly fueled by domestic demand and export orders decreased.
• Employment has increased and costs and selling prices were on a soft rising trend.

US: ISM Manufacturing (July): 55.6 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 53.3)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded over the month; opinions have improved about production, new orders, exports and employment over the month.
• Prices paid have slightly declined but the related index remained at a very high level.

US: Construction spending (June): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.1%)

• Non-residential spending was up by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m the prior month), while residential spending was down by 0.3% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (July): 51.9 vs 52 expected (prior: 51.4)

• Final data pointed to a rebound in sentiment from the prior month, but slightly less than expected.
• Production was firmer but activity has diverged across countries: the rebound was led by Germany, while production has weakened in France and Spain. Firms have reduced inventories, while disruption (long time of delivery) remained a constraint, and new exports were globally down over the month.
• Employment has decreased over the month; costs remained on the rise but selling prices have moderated, compared to previous months.
• The Germany PMI manufacturing index was up to 52.2 (50.3 prior month), up to 50.2 from 49.7 in Spain, down from 52.2 to 51.3 in Italy and down from 51.2 to 49.8 in France.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (July): 51.9 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 52.5)

• Final PMI manufacturing came lower than initially estimated and prior month. Production has rebounded over the month, mainly in large firms, with improving new orders and rising new exports (from US, Europe and Asia).
• Input prices have moderated, with pressures on selected sectors (chemicals, electricals and electronics), and selling prices have moderated.
• Employment was positive, thanks to firmer activity, but it has increased at a very moderate pace.

Germany: Retail sales (June): -1.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 1.1%)

• Sales have reversed after the rebound seen the prior month.

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (July): 49 vs 47.5 expected (prior: 46.1)

• Business confidence has rebounded over the month; new orders regained at 46.4 after 42.6 prior month.

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (July): 55.8 (prior: 58 revised from 58.3)

• Business confidence has declined over the month for all major sectors, including prices.

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (July): 53.2 vs 54.9 expected (prior: 54.3)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions have decreased on production and slightly about new orders; employment has decreased while delivery time and prices have increased.
• Separately, PMI services index has increased from 59.8 to 63.9; this strong rise was quite broad-based across components, including selling prices.

Switzerland: CPI (July): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Prices of goods were down by 0.7% m/m (0% m/m prior month) due to a large fall in clothes and household goods prices. Oil and transport prices were down over the month.
• Services were up by 0.2% m/m after 0% m/m prior moth. Core inflation was down by 0.1% m/m after 0% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 0.5% y/y to 0.4% y/y and core inflation remained stable at 0.5% y/y.

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (July): 47.7 (prior: 47.1)

• Business sentiment has regained but it remained, as well as new orders, below the 50 level.

Turkey: CPI (July): 1.78% m/m vs 1.96% expected (prior: 0.99%)

• Monthly prices have strongly re-accelerated for all sectors over the month, particularly heath care, except clothes.
• Yearly trend has declined from 32.11% y/y prior month to 31.75% y/y; core inflation has regained from 29.84 % y/y to 29.91% y/y.