Synthèse Daily Macro
May flash inflation: rising yearly trend in France, Italy and Spain, while modest decline in Germany
US: Wholesale inventories (April): 0.5% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.3%)
- Inventories have increased particularly for autos.
US: Chicago PMI (May): 62.7 vs 50.3 expected (prior: 49.2)
- Business sentiment has sharply rebounded over the month; opinions have rebounded on production, new orders, and inventories and time of delivery.
- Prices were also on the rise, while employment has decreased.
France: Consumer spending (April): -0.5% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.7%)
- Spending was down due to a large fall in oil consumption, reflecting higher prices; other sectors were also down over the month, except sales of clothes.
France: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 1.2%)
- Inflation has slowed down over the month in flash estimate; energy prices were still up by 0.8% m/m after 4.7% m/m the prior month. Prices in other sectors were limited: prices of goods up by 0.1% m/m, services flat and food up by 0.4% m/m. fresh food prices were up by 2.6% m/m after 1.0% m/m the prior month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 2.8% y/y after 2.5% y/y prior month.
France: GDP (Q1-26): -0.1% q/q vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- GDP growth was revised lower from the first estimate.
- Consumption was down by 0.2%q (0.3% q in Q4-25), due to falling consumption of energy and food, while services were up by 0.2%q and goods up by 0.1% q.
- Public consumption was up by 0.3%q after 0.2%q in Q4-25.
- Capex was down by 0.6% q (0.2% q in Q4-25); the fall was due to construction, but investment has also fallen for public sector and firms’ capex in Q1.
- Net exports were negative while inventories have strongly rebounded in Q1.
Germany: Unemployment rate (May): 6.3% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.4%)
- Unemployed has slightly declined over the month after a rebound the prior month.
Germany: CPI (May): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Prices of energy and food have declined over the month, while package holidays have rebounded.
- Yearly trend has declined from 2.9% y/y prior month to 2.7% y/y.
Italy: CPI (May): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.6%)
- Flash estimate pointed to still sustained monthly change in inflation. Rises in energy and services were responsible for the monthly rise.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.8% y/y prior month to 3.3% y/y.
Italy: GDP (Q1-26): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- GDP growth was revised higher than in the first estimate.
- Consumption was up by 0.5%q (0.1% inQ4-25), and capex up by 0.7%q (1.0% q in Q4-25); net trade contribution was more positive over the quarter.
Italy: Unemployment rate (April): 5.1% vs 5.3% expected (prior: 5.2%)
- Unemployed has slightly decreased over the month.
Spain: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Flash estimate pointed to moderate monthly rise in prices; services were up over the month due to transport and package holidays while energy prices still benefited from the cut in VAT (from 21% to 10% until June).
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.5% y/y prior month to 3.6% y/y.
Poland: CPI (May): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.6%)
- Flash estimate pointed to a declining monthly inflation; fuels and food prices have decreased over the month while electricity and gas costs were stable.
- Yearly trend has slightly declined to 3.1% y/y after 3.2% y/y the prior month.
Norway: Unemployment rate (May): 2.1% as expected (prior: 2.1%)
- Unemployed has decreased over the month but seasonally adjusted data remained stable.
Norway: Retail sales (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Sales have rebounded over the month after contraction seen the prior month.
Sweden: Retail sales (April): 0% m/m (prior: 2.9% revised from 3.1%)
- Sales were on pause after prior month rebound.
Sweden: GDP (Q1-26): -0.2% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.5%)
- GDP contraction in Q1 was driven by falling capex and public consumption (swing s in defense spending), negative trade contribution while consumption was up by 0.6%q.
Switzerland: KOF (May): 98 as expected (prior: 97.8 revised from 97.9)
- Business sentiment has slightly regained form the prior month; the trend is improving since the low seen in March.
US Q1-26 GDP revised lower; US core PCE in line with expectations
US: Initial jobless claims (May 23): 215k vs 211k expected (prior: 210k revised from 209k)
- Continuing claims: 1786 k after 1771 k the prior week.
US: GDP (Q1-26): 1.6% q/q vs 2.0% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- GDP growth was revised lower in the second estimate due to slightly lower consumption and larger fall of inventories over the quarter.
- Consumption was up by 1.4 % q/q (1.6% q/q in first estimate) after 1.9% q/q in Q4: purchases of goods were moderate, up by 0.4% q/q (0.3% in Q4-25) and services up by 1.8% q/q vs 2.4% in first estimate and 2.7% in Q4-25.
- Investment remained sustained: equipment up by 17.2 % q/q (4.3% q/q in Q4-25), R&D up by 11.6% q/q (5.4% q/q in Q4); investment in structure was down by 5.4% q/q after -6.5% q/q in Q4, and residential down by 6.2% q/q after -1.7% q/q in Q4-25.
- Exports and imports have strongly rebounded in Q1, but net exports contribution was negative (-1.25 pp) and inventories have decreased more than in the first estimate and in Q4-25.
- Private domestic demand was slightly revised down to 2.4% q/q from the first estimate of 2.5% and after 1.8% q/q in Q4-25.
- Despite minor revisions to various sectors, US growth remained driven by a strong investment cycle and still consumption which was just below 2% trend.
US: Personal income (April): 0% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.6%)
- Wage growth was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month; disposable income was down by 0.1% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
- Saving ratio has decreased from 3.2% to 2.6%.
US: Personal spending (April): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.9%)
- Spending remained sustained over the month and prior month was slightly revised up.
- Purchases of goods were up by 0.6% m/m and services up by 0.4% m/m.
US: Core PCE deflator (April): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Yearly trend was up by 3.3% y/y, as expected, after 3.2% y/y the prior month.
US: Durable goods orders (April): 7.9% m/m vs 4.0% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 0.8%)
- Orders were boosted by defense and aircraft orders; orders for capital goods non-defense and ex aircraft (core orders) were down by 1.1% m/m after 3.9% m/m the prior month.
- Orders were sustained for metals and electronic equipment.
- Shipments were up by 0.5% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month) and shipments for core orders were up by 0.4% m/m (1.3% m/m prior month).
- Inventories were up by 0.3% m/m (the same as prior month) and up by 0.2% m/m for core orders.
US: New home sales (April): 622k vs 660k expected (prior: 663k revised from 682k)
- Sales have fallen over the month for all except one district (West district) over 4 districts.
- Inventories have increased over the month, but average prices were up by 0.7% m/m.
France: Producer Prices (April): -2.1% m/m (prior: 1.9% revised from 2.0%)
- Electricity prices have sharply declined while gas prices remained on rising trend. Manufacturing good prices were up by 0.7% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month).
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 2.1% y/y after 0% y/y the prior month.
Eurozone: Industrial confidence (May): -8 as expected (prior: -7.7)
- Business sentiment has slightly declined from the prior month.
- Opinions were more negative on past and future production; they were less negative than prior month on new orders, employment and selling prices were slightly lower than prior month; views have improved on inventories.
Eurozone: Services confidence (May): 2.2 vs 0.3 expected (prior: 1.4 revised from 0.9)
- Sentiment on services has rebounded, contrary to latest flash PMI services.
- Views have decreased on current demand but improved with more positive future demand; opinions were also less negative on employment and selling prices were seen slightly lower than prior month.
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (May): -19 as expected (prior: -20.6)
- Consumer confidence was less negative than the prior month but remained low.
- Opinions were less negative than prior month on financial conditions, inflation, economic conditions, and major purchases.
- Nevertheless, worries have increased about future unemployment.
Italy: Consumer confidence (May): 93.4 vs 90 expected (prior: 90.8)
- Sentiment has recovered due to improving views on economic and financial situation.
Italy: Manufacturing confidence (May): 87.9 vs 87.6 expected (prior: 87.9)
- Sentiment remained stable in the manufacturing, while it weakened in construction and services excluding retail sector.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (April): 0.8% y/y vs 3.6% expected (prior: 4.1%)
- Sales were down by 1.5% m/m (1.2% m/m the prior month); contraction was driven by falling gasoline purchases, but major other sectors have also contracted over the month, except internet sales.
Norway: GDP Mainland (Q1-26): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.4%)
- Q1 GDP came lower than expected and Q4-25 GDP data were revised lower.
- Consumption has contracted by 1.1 %q (1.3%q in Q4-25), driven by falling purchases of autos while services remained on a modest growth trend.
- Capex has decreased by 7.2%q after 5%q in the prior quarter.
- Public consumption was sustained, as seen in Q4-25. Inventories contribution was positive over the quarter while net trade contribution has decreased.
Sweden: Consumer confidence (May): 92.4 (prior: 91.7 revised from 91.5)
- Consumer sentiment has improved on global economy and personal situation.
Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (May): 100.5 (prior: 100)
- Business sentiment has improved in manufacturing and trade sectors but decreased in construction.
US Business confidence (Richmond Fed) on rebound
US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (May): 13 vs 4 expected (prior: 3)
- The business confidence index has rebounded to high level, close to the highs seen in 2021.
- Sentiment has improved on both current conditions and 6M activity.
- Opinions have improved about shipments, new orders, and capex. Prices paid and received have declined from the prior month.
France: Consumer confidence (May): 82 vs 83 expected (prior: 84)
- Consumer confidence has decreased more than expected over the month. The index was back and come closer to the low levels seen in 2022-2023 (index at 80).
- Sentiment has decreased on financial situation and future economy while preference for saving has increased.
US consumer confidence (Conference Board) came better than expected
US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (March): 0.83% y/y vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.92% revised from 0.9%)
- Prices were down by 0.16% m/m after -0.05% m/m the prior month.
- Prices in 10 cities were down on yearly trend while only 4 cities offered prices up above 2% y/y.
US: Consumer confidence (CB) (May): 93.1 vs 92 expected (prior: 93.8 revised from 92.8)
- Consumer confidence has eroded from the prior month, but data were revised up.
- Sentiment has decreased on current conditions (index down from 124.4 to 121.2) while expectations have regained (index at 74.4 after 73.4 prior month).
- On current conditions, labor is seen in a fragile stabilization; business conditions have also stabilized from the prior month.
- Willingness to buy has decreased for autos and houses form the prior month, while purchases of big appliances were on the rise from the prior month.
- The 12M inflation expectations remained stable at 6.2%y/y.
- The Conference Board consumer index was better than the declining University of Michigan confidence index; nevertheless, some fragilities exist, notably on labor, while views on future economy come slightly more positive than in the Michigan index.
Spain: PPI (April): 1.7% m/m (prior: 6.2% revised from 6.5%)
- Energy prices were up by 2.4% m/m; upside pressures were also seen over the month on prices of intermediate and manufacturing goods, notably on chemicals.
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 8.3% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month.
Poland: Unemployment rate (April): 6% as expected (prior: 6.1%)
- Unemployed has decreased over the month.
Consumer confidence: sharp fall in the US, less depressed in Germany and the UK
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (May): 44.8 vs 48.2 expected (prior: 49.8)
- Final consumer confidence was more negative than in first estimate and pointed to a new sharp fall on confidence.
- Opinions on current conditions have strongly deteriorated (index at 45.8 after 52.5 prior moth) and expectations have also fallen (index at 44.1 after 48.1).
- Views have deteriorated on financial conditions on lower income and higher prices. Business expectations have deteriorated, and fears of rising unemployment have increased. Disapproval about the government action has increased.
- Willingness to buy large items has strongly decreased from the prior month.
- 12M inflation expectations have increased from 4.7% prior month to 4.8% y/y and inflation at 5-10y has rebounded from 3.5% y/y to 3.9% y/y.
France: Industrial production (May): 94% m/m as expected (prior: 94%)
- Business sentiment in manufacturing has increased from 100 the prior month to 102.
- Opinions were slightly more positive on past production and less negative on orders.
- Prices were on the rise.
- In parallel, index on services has decreased (from 94 prior month to 93), with deteriorating outlook and negative views on past activity.
Germany: GFK consumer confidence (June): -29.8 vs -34 expected (prior: -33.1 revised from -33.3)
- Consumer confidence has slightly regained from depressed levels.
- Opinions were less negative than prior month about outlook and income.
Germany: IFO (May): 84.9 vs 84.2 expected (prior: 84.5 revised from 84.4)
- Business sentiment has slightly improved from very low level.
- Opinions have improved about current conditions (index at 86.1 after 85.4 prior month) and expectations have slightly improved (index at 83.8 after 83.5 prior month).
- By sector, views on manufacturing and services were just less depressed than the prior month.
- Views from IFO survey were less negative than the latest flash PMI manufacturing down from 51.4 to 49.9.
Germany: GDP (Q1-26): 0.3% q/q as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Second estimate was in line with the first estimate and offered more details at sector level.
- Consumption was flat in Q1 (0.6% q in Q4-25) and public consumption was up by 1.1 %q (1.5% in Q4-25).
- Investment was sharply down, contracting by 1.2%q after +2.5%q in Q4-25.
- Exports have strongly rebounded, up by 3.3%q after -1.5%q in Q4.
- After resilient growth in Q1, downside risks weigh on Q2 GDP.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (May): -23 vs -28 expected (prior: -25)
- Opinions were less negative than the prior month about personal financial situation and economic outlook.
- Nevertheless, willingness to buy items has decreased further.
UK: Retail sales (April): -1.3% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)
- Sales have strongly contracted over the month; ex-fuels sales were down by 0.4% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
- Within sectors, only food sales were positive (volume terms) and other sectors negative, particularly clothes (-2.4% m/m).
Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (May): 101 (prior: 98.6)