Synthèse Daily Macro
jeudi, juin 25
America’s consumers proved resilient once again, shrugging off quickening inflation
US: Personal income (May): 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.0%)
- Household incomes rose more than expected, lifted by a modest upturn in wage growth, in line with hiring in recent months. Larger-than-usual tax refunds and a supportive wealth effect added impetus, while the BEA flagged a sharp increase in payments to farmers.
- That income tailwind fed through to spending. Personal consumption beat forecasts, rising 0.7% month on month (0.6% expected). Even after inflation, spending advanced 0.3% (0.2% expected), with a notable acceleration in goods outlays while services held steady.
- The personal saving rate was unchanged at 3.0%, suggesting households, buoyed by asset gains and refunds, are doing little in the way of precautionary saving.
US: Core PCE deflator (May): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)
- The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge matched expectations, rising 3.4% year on year. Services remained the chief driver and quickened from 0.2% to 0.6% month on month, led by financial, communication and transportation services.
- By contrast, durables (and especially furnishings and household equipment) slowed sharply from 0.6% to 0.0%, suggesting the earlier tariff impulse may be fading or that consumers are pushing back against pass-through of rising costs.
- Looking ahead, portfolio‑management fees, which follow equity markets with a lag, are likely to lift inflation in the near term before easing as stock gains cool. Jet‑fuel prices have also retreated from their peak, reducing pressure on airfares.
US: Initial jobless claims (Jun 20): 215k vs 225k expected (prior: 227k revised from 226k)
- Applications for unemployment benefits remain low, reinforcing signs that the labour market is stabilizing. Taken together with the latest ADP readings, the data bode well for June payrolls.
US: Durable goods orders (May P): -4.5% m/m vs -5.0% expected (prior: 8.5% revised from 8.0%)
- Headline orders fell by less than expected as a prior-month surge in aircraft reversed.
- Strip out transportation, and orders rose 1.3%; core capital goods (non-defense, ex‑aircraft) climbed 1.6%. Taken together, the figures point to robust investment in the second quarter.
mercredi, juin 24
German firms marked up their assements of current conditions
US: New home sales (May): 580k vs 640k expected (prior: 626k revised from 622k)
- New-home sales slumped in May, undershooting every forecast as mortgage rates stayed high and heavy discounts failed to propel demand.
Germany: IFO (Jun): 85.6 vs 85.5 expected (prior: 85.0 revised from 84.9)
- Germany’s Ifo business climate index rebounded in June to levels last seen before the Iran-related flare‑ups, a contrast with yesterday’s PMI reading, which slipped to an 18‑month low.
- The Ifo remains depressed by historical standards, but the improvement offers a measure of reassurance that the economy may narrowly avoid contraction in the second quarter.
- Firms are marking up their assessments of current conditions and, to a lesser extent, their expectations. The outlook component should strengthen further as falling energy prices feed through, helped by reports of progress in US‑Iran peace talks.
- Sentiment improved across all major sectors, including manufacturing and services, underscoring a broad, if still fragile, turn in business morale.
mardi, juin 23
Early inventory building propped up manufacturing gauges, and services profited from US-Ìran deal
US: Manufacturing PMI (Jun P): 55.7 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 55.1)
- Manufacturing sentiment held its positive momentum, hitting a four‑month high. But the gloss fades on inspection.
- Much of the rise in new orders reflects front‑running, clients stocking up ahead of potential war‑related supply snags and price hikes, rather than underlying demand.
- Longer supplier delivery times, the first sustained lengthening since August 2022, also flattered the PMI. Input‑cost inflation cooled in June, helped by lower energy prices late in the survey period, though output prices remain elevated.
- Employment was a drag: jobs fell at the fastest pace since 2020.
US: Services PMI (Jun P): 51.3 vs 51.1 expected (prior: 50.7)
- Brighter headlines from the Middle East lifted business sentiment in June, but US growth remained subdued. Firms pared staffing amid a murkier outlook and rising overheads, especially dearer raw materials.
- Input-cost inflation ticked up to a six‑month high, and selling prices continued to climb. Taken together, the data point to an economy expanding at roughly a 1% annualized rate in the second quarter.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Jun P): 48.9 vs 48.6 expected (prior: 47.7)
- Services sentiment rebounded more than expected in the June flash, rising to a three‑month high as tourism and leisure firms reported demand recovering from the war’s initial disruptions.
- Price pressures eased, hinting that the recent inflation spike may be peaking: output-price inflation slowed in June, though less sharply than input costs.
- Country-wise, Germany slipped deeper into contraction, falling from 48.1 to 46.8. France beat expectations on a sharper-than-forecast rebound in services, rising from 44.3 to 47.4 but the composite reading remains well below the 50 threshold.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Jun P): 51.3 vs 51.6 expected (prior: 51.6)
- Manufacturers are still riding an inventory boom as customers stock up to hedge against future price rises and wartime supply disruptions. Supply-chain delays remain widespread, keeping price pressures elevated. Even so, anxiety over both supply and inflation is beginning to ease at the margins.
- France surprised on the upside, climbing above the 50 mark and signaling expansion. Germany slipped to 50, pointing to a stall in momentum.
UK: Services PMI (Jun P): 48.7 vs 50.1 expected (prior: 49.3)
- The UK’s private sector shrank, led by a services slump as new orders fell at their fastest pace in 14 months. Backlogs thinned more quickly, and firms trimmed headcount. Softer energy prices, tepid growth and a cooler labour market point to enough slack in demand and wage bargaining to keep inflation from becoming entrenched.
- A disappointing June flash PMI suggests the economy contracted for a second straight month and gives weight to the economists forecasting stagnant UK output in the second quarter of 2026.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Jun P): 53.1 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53.9)
- Manufacturers rode a temporary demand bump as clients stockpiled ahead of expected price rises, lifting output to its fastest pace since September 2024.
- But momentum is fading: growth in new factory orders slipped to a six-month low in June, suggesting the front‑loading boost is petering out.
- Input-cost inflation eased for a second month, yet remains high by historical standards, with price pressures still more intense in manufacturing than in services.
lundi, juin 22
Eurozone consumer confidence rebounded in June
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Jun P): -17.7 vs -18.0 expected (prior: -19.0)
- Consumer confidence slightly rebounded in June in line with lower energy prices. Nevertheless, the metric remains well below its long-term average.
vendredi, juin 19
British shoppers opened their wallets in May
UK: GFK consumer confidence (June): -23 as expected (prior: -23)
- UK consumer confidence remains mired in gloom, weighed down by a sharp rise in energy prices. The headline measure is flat, but the composition is shifting: sentiment among younger adults has slumped, while households’ expectations for the next 12 months have edged higher.
UK: Retail sales (May): 1.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from -1.3%)
- British shoppers opened their wallets in May, while April’s sharp drop in sales was revised less severe, as a burst of hot weather lifted demand for summer staples such as fans and paddling pools.
- The data point to consumers looking through inflation worries for now. Many households appear to be treating higher energy costs as temporary, and smoothing their budgets accordingly, rather than cutting back decisively.