Synthèse Daily Macro
US strong productivity gains confirmed in Q3-25; improving business and consumer sentiment in the eurozone
US: Nonfarm productivity (Q3-25): 4.9% q/q as expected (prior: 4.1%)
- Final data confirmed the high pace of productivity gains in Q3-25.
- Activity was sustained, production being up by 5.4%q after 5.2%q in Q2-25; hours worked were up modestly by 0.5% after 1% in Q2-25.
- Wage growth was up by 2.9%q after 1.1% q in Q2-25.
- Unit labor costs have decreased, down by 1.9% q after -2.9% q the prior quarter.
- The challenge is to maintain in 2026 a favorable trend in productivity and still low and contained labor costs.
US: Initial jobless claims (Jan. 24): 209k vs 205k expected (prior: 210k revised from 200k)
- Continuing claims: 1827 k after 1865 k the prior week.
US: Trade balance (Nov.): -56.8 bn USD vs -44 bn expected (prior: -29.2 bn revised from -29.4 bn)
- Deficit has rebounded after an exceptional improvement the prior month.
- Exports were down by 3.6% m/m after 3% m/m the prior month; all categories of exports were down over the month.
- Imports were up by 5% m/m after -3% m/m prior month; imports of capital goods and consumer goods have sharply rebounded over the month.
- As seen for many DM countries, exports remained on a weak and volatile trend.
US: Factory orders (Nov.): 2.7% m/m vs 1.6% expected (prior: -1.2% revised from -1.3%)
- Data confirmed the positive trend on orders for capital good non-defense ex aircraft up by 0.4% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
- Orders for civil aircrafts have strongly rebounded over the month and drove the total rebound in factory orders.
- Shipments were down by 0.1% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month; inventories were up by 0.1% after 0% m/m the prior month.
US: Wholesale inventories (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Inventories have increased for computers, machinery and pharma products; in parallel sales were firmer, up by 1.3% m/m after -0.4% m/m, and were higher for these related items.
Eurozone: M3 (Dec.): 2.8% y/y vs 3% expected (prior: 3%)
- M2 remained on stable trend, up by 3.1% y/y; M1 growth has slowed down, from 5.0% y/y prior month to 4.7% y/y.
- Credit to private sector has slowed down from 3.3% y/y to 3.0% y/y.
- Across countries, the demand for loans from corporates was the most buoyant in Greece over the month.
Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Jan.): -6.8 vs -8.2 expected (prior: -8.5 revised from -9)
- Business sentiment has improved from the prior month.
- Views have regained on production, were less negative from the prior month on new orders, past production and employment.
- Sentiment has deteriorated further on exports.
- Sentiment has regained in industry at end of last year and offered a more constructive picture entering 2026.
Eurozone: Services confidence (Dec.): 7.2 vs 5.9 expected (prior: 5.8 revised from 5.6)
- Sentiment has rebounded in services; over the month, views have improved on business situation, demand and employment.
- Views were less negative in the retail sector, while they remained stable but slightly negative in the construction sector.
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Dec.): -12.4 as expected (prior: -13.2)
- Views were less negative form the prior month; opinions have improved on financial situation, and trend in prices, but unemployment remained a concern and preference for saving has increased further.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (Dec.): 2.9% y/y (prior: 6%)
- Sales were down by 0.8% m/m after a 1% m/m rise the prior month.
- All sectors were negative over the month except online sales.
- After sustained growth past year, yearly comparison tends to moderate but the underlying trend remains positive.
Sweden: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 95.3 vs 97 expected (prior: 95.6 revised from 95.8)
- Confidence has eroded over the month but remained high. Sentiment has weakened on personal situation while views on global macro has improved.
Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Jan.): 103.6 (prior: 103.8)
- Sentiment has eroded in manufacturing and in construction and trade sectors over the month.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 7.7% (prior: 8.5% revised from 8.6%)
- Unemployed has sharply decreased over the month.
Improving German consumer confidence
Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Feb.): -24.1 vs -25.5 expected (prior: -26.9)
- Consumer confidence has improved after some deterioration seen over the prior month.
- Views have improved on activity, but concerns remained on inflation and preference for saving remained large.
Italy: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 96.8 vs 96.9 expected (prior: 96.6)
- Confidence has slightly increased from the prior month.
- Views were more positive on economy and financial situation.
Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Jan.): 89.2 vs 89 expected (prior: 88.5 revised from 88.4)
- Business confidence has regained in manufacturing and in services over the month.
- Within services, confidence decreased in retail and construction sectors.
Declining US consumer confidence (Conference Board in Jan.)
US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Nov.): 1.39% y/y vs 1.2% expected (prior: 1.32% revised from 1.31%)
- Houses prices have slightly accelerated over the month; monthly changes were up by 0.47% m/m after 0.36% m/m prior month.
- Over 20 cities, only 6 cities offered now positive yearly trend in prices.
US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Jan.): -6 vs -5 expected (prior: -7)
- Business confidence has slightly improved from the prior month, but less than expected by the consensus.
- Opinions were less negative on new orders, shipments and business conditions but were more negative for capex and employment.
- The 6-month views have regained from the prior month on new orders and business conditions.
US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Jan.): 84.5 vs 91 expected (prior: 94.2 revised from 89.1)
- Consumer sentiment has sharply declined, but prior month data were revised up.
- Index has decreased for both current situation and expectations over the month.
- On current situation, views on labor conditions have deteriorated from the prior month.
- On future situation, opinions have decreased on business and labor.
- Willingness to buy large items has decreased from the prior month.
- The 12-month inflation expectations have increased from 5.4% y/y prior month to 5.7%y/y.
France: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 90 as expected (prior: 90)
- Consumer confidence remained stable at a moderate level.
- Opinions were less negative on financial situation, have stabilized on unemployment and preference for saving has slightly decreased.
- Nevertheless, views on standards of living remained depressed.
- Sentiment and activity remained quite resilient given remaining political uncertainties.
Spain: Unemployment rate (Q4-25): 9.93% vs 10.25% expected (prior: 10.45%)
- Unemployment has significantly declined at year end.
- Employment has increased in Q4-25, driven by employees and self-employed persons; job creations were stronger in the public sector. Part-time workers (mainly women) have strongly increased over the quarter.
Poland: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 5.7% as expected (prior: 5.6%)
- Unemployment has slightly increased over the month.
Brazil: CPI (Jan.): 0.20% m/m vs 0.22% expected (prior: 0.25%)
- Prices have declined over the month for transport and housing but accelerated for health, household goods and communication sectors.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 4.41% y/y to 4.50% y/y.
A rebound in US durable goods orders; a stable German IFO in Jan.
US: Durable goods orders (Nov.): 5.3% m/m vs 3.8% expected (prior: -2.1% revised from -2.2%)
- Orders for civil aircrafts have strongly rebounded over the month; orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
- In detail, orders were mixed across sectors: a rebound was seen for metals and electrical equipment over the month, while orders in other sectors were mixed/weak.
- Shipments were down by 0.2% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month; inventories were up by 0.2% m/m as seen the prior month.
Germany: IFO (Jan.): 87.6 vs 88.2 expected (prior: 87.6)
- Business sentiment remained stable over the month; sentiment on current situation has stabilized while expectations came lower than expected and from the prior month (index at 89.5 after 89.7 the prior month).
- By sector, sentiment was less negative in manufacturing, trade and construction sectors, while it has deteriorated over the month in services.
Spain: PPI (Dec.): 0.4% m/m (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.4%)
- Prices of energy have rebounded over the month (electricity and gas prices) but were balanced by a decline in prices for manufacturing goods.
- Yearly trend has declined from -2.5% y/y prior month to -3.0%y/y.
Poland: Retail sales (Dec.): 12.5% m/m as expected (prior: -3.3%)
- Sales have rebounded over the month in all sectors, except fuel and clothes; the rebound was driven in particular by autos, food and pharma products.
- Yearly trend has increased to 5.3% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month.
Brazil: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 87.3 (prior: 89.1 revised from 90.2)
- Consumer confidence has decreased over the month on both current situation and expectations.
Brazil: Current account (Dec.): -3363 M$ vs -5000 M$ expected (prior: -4956 M$ revised from -4943 M$)
- Foreign direct investment was down from USD 9820 M prior month to USD -5248 M over the month.
- On cumulated data, total current account deficit represented -3.02% of GDP in 2025 and cumulated foreign direct investment 3.41% of GDP.
Flash PMI manufacturing on a modest rise in the US and the Eurozone, while a larger monthly rebound in the UK
US: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 51.9 vs 52 expected (prior: 51.8)
- Flash business sentiment has slightly increased over the month; production was firmer, but exports remained weak and the rise in new orders was modest over the month.
- Opinions have decreased on employment, while costs and prices were on the rise.
US: Services PMI (Jan.): 52.5 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 52.5)
- Flash sentiment remained stable over the month, due to political uncertainties.
- Opinions were constructive on new business, but exports remained weak; opinions have slightly increased on employment.
- Rises in prices were limited by higher competition.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Jan.): 56.4 vs 54 expected (prior: 52.9)
- Final consumer confidence has improved more than expected from the prior month.
- Opinions on current situation and expectations have strongly rebounded from the prior month.
- Views have improved on future financial situation and business expectations have rebounded over the month.
- Households have less worries about unemployment and expect lower rates and gas prices.
- Willingness to buy autos and houses have regained over the month.
- The 12M inflation expectations have declined from 4.2% to 4.0%; the 5-10y inflation expectations have slightly increased from 3.2% prior month to 3.3%y/y.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 49.4 vs 49.2 expected (prior: 48.8)
- Flash sentiment in manufacturing has regained from the prior month but the index remained below 50.
- Sentiment has improved in France (51 after 50.7) and modestly in Germany (48.7 after 47).
- Sentiment has improved on new orders and production, but it was mainly domestically driven as new export orders decreased.
- Sentiment on employment has decreased, mainly in Germany; selling prices were slightly down while costs continue to rise.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Jan.): 51.9 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 52.4)
- Flash estimates have pointed to lower sentiment in services, but the index remained above 50.
- Sentiment has sharply decreased in France (47.9 after 50.1), reflecting political uncertainties; in Germany, sentiment has regained (53.3 after 52.7), thanks to higher new business.
- Employment remained stable; selling prices remained on the rise.
France: Business confidence (Jan.): 99 as expected (prior: 99)
- Confidence in the manufacturing sectors has increased from 102 prior month to 105.
- Sentiment was better oriented on production and less negative on new orders.
- Separately, sentiment was stable in services.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 8.8% as expected (prior: 9.1%)
- Unemployed has slightly increased over the month in parallel with some decrease in labor force.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Jan.): -16 as expected (prior: -17)
- Sentiment has improved on personal financial situation but worries remained about the economic outlook (past and future).
- Preference for saving has increased further over the month.
UK: Retail sales (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.1%)
- Sales were mainly driven by online shopping, while sales in other sectors were negative over the month.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 51.6 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 50.6)
- Business sentiment has improved over the month thanks to rising opinions on new orders and production. Exports have also rebounded and demand for restocking has regained from clients.
- Sentiment has decreased on employment.
UK: Services PMI (Jan.): 54.3 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 51.4)
- Sentiment has rebounded over the month and new business has increased further over the month.
- Demand has regained after the release of the budget.
- Employment has strongly decreased facing a new rebound in labor costs.