Synthèse Daily Macro
jeudi, octobre 15
US PPI higher than expected due to energy and services
US: Initial jobless claims (Oct. 10): 199k vs 200k expected (prior: 198k revised from 197k)
- Continuing claims: 1710 k after 1714 k the prior week.
US: Empire manufacturing (Oct.): 25.5 vs 12 expected (prior: 7.6)
- Business confidence has sharply rebounded over the month.
- Opinions have improved on new orders, shipments and unfilled orders; prices paid have eased down while prices received have increased further over the month.
- The 6M index has decreased (from 29 to 21, a still high level); views decreased on new orders, but remained positive about shipments; prices paid, and prices received remained on the rise.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (Oct.): 20.9 vs 28 expected (prior: 37.8)
- Business confidence has decreased in this region after a high in Aug.
- Opinions have decreased on new orders, shipments and employment; prices paid have eased but prices received remained on the rise.
- The 6-M index has also decreased, with lower new orders and shipments. Over 6-M, prices paid and received have decreased.
- While activity remained globally positive, but volatile across districts and on a monthly basis, prices remained globally a concern.
US: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 1.4%)
- Sales were boosted by purchases (in value terms) of gasoline, up by 6.4% m/m (4% m/m prior month).
- Details offered a mix picture of sales: on the rise, were sectors such as electronics, furniture and restaurants, while sales have contracted for sport and building materials.
- Sales ex autos, building materials, energy and food were up only by 0.1% m/m after 1.2% m/m prior month (revised from 1.4% m/m).
US: PPI (Sept.): 1.3% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.4%)
- Prices have accelerated due to energy prices and services.
- Energy prices were up by 10.8% m/m after 4.5% m/m; food prices were up by 1.2% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month and services were up by 0.8% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) due to strong rises in costs of trade and warehouses). Core PPIs were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 5.6% y/y prior month to 6.3% y/y. Core PPIs were up to 5% y/y after 4.8% y/y.
US: Wholesale inventories (Aug.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)
- Inventories have increased further for manufacturers and wholesalers over the month.
Eurozone: Industrial production (Aug.): -0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.1%)
- All sectors have contracted over the month, except capital goods (up by 0.4% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month) and durable consumer goods (up by 0.2% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month).
France: CPI (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Final data confirmed the monthly fall in prices; services were down by 1.4% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month) due to a fall in transport costs and communication.
- Energy prices were up by 3.9% m/m after 3.4% m/m prior month (21.3% y/y). Prices of clothes were also up by 3.8% m/m after 7.3% m/m the prior month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.6% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Sept.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.7%)
- Import prices were up by 0.9% m/m after 1.9% m/m prior month, and up by 2.1% y/y (0.8% y/y prior month).
- Producer prices remained contained: up by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and down by 1.2% y/y (-1.3% y/y prior month).
UK: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.8% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)
- Manufacturing production was up by a strong 1.2% m/m (1.0% m/m prior month); intermediate goods production was up by 1.4% m/m and investment up by 0.4% m/m.
- Intermediate goods production was pushed up by mining, up by 1.4% m/m.
- Separately, construction was down by 0.2% m/m (-0.5% m/m prior month) and services remained flat over the month after 0.5% m/m prior month.
- In parallel, monthly proxy for GDP was up by 0.1% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month; activity remained globally resilient even if the momentum passed from services to manufacturing over the month under review.
mercredi, octobre 14
US inflation trend in acceleration, paving the way to another Fed rate hike
US: CPI (Sept.): 0.65% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Inflation was close to estimate, but its trend has accelerated further.
- Main part of the acceleration of inflation was coming from energy prices, up by 5.2% m/m after 2.1% m/m prior month. Prices were significantly higher for fuel oil (15.3% m/m) and gasoline (9.1% m/m).
- Good prices were up by 0.3% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month); prices have accelerated for household equipment, apparels, used cars (0.7% m/m) and new cars (0.4% m/m) and recreation goods.
- Services were up by 0.4% m/m (0.3% m/m the prior month), due to shelter (0.4% after 0.3% m/m) and several rises in transport (1.2% m/m after 2.3% m/m prior month) and medical services (0.3% m/m).
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.4% y/y prior month to 3.7% y/y, and core inflation from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y.
- While energy continues to fuel a strong monthly momentum in headline inflation, some sectors within core inflation have slightly increased over the month reflecting a solid demand; these data paved the way to another Fed rate hike, making next October meeting live.
- Note Fed governors have refrained in their recent communication being too hawkish, but these data could fuel another unanimous decision in Oct. or Dec. to hike further.
Germany: Wholesale price (Sept.): 1.9% m/m (prior: 0.9%)
- With higher energy prices, yearly trend has accelerated to 8.7% y/y from 6.8% y/y prior month.
Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Final prices confirmed the other strong monthly rise due to energy-transport, clothes, and housing. Recreation costs have decreased over the month.
- Yearly trend has been confirmed up to 5.0% y/y after 4.6% y/y prior month.
Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Final data were in line with first estimates; prices have increased over the month due to higher energy-electricity, transport costs, and prices of clothes and education. Recreation prices have decreased over the month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.4% y/y prior month to 4.1% y/y.
Sweden: CPI (Sept.): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Prices were confirmed up by a strong monthly rise: prices of clothes, housing, household goods, transport and communication have accelerated over the month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.7% y/y prior month to 1.5% y/y.
Sweden: Retail sales (Sept.): 1.1% m/m (prior: -0.4% revised from 0.7%)
- Consumption has accelerated after downward revisions to prior month data.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.3% y/y prior month to 3.5% y/y.
mardi, octobre 13
US small-business owners turn slightly less optimistic
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Sept.): 97.9 vs 98.2 expected (prior: 98.7)
- Small-business optimism fell to a 3-month low, with 6 of the 10 sub-indices down.
- The net share of owners who expect business conditions to improve declined to a 4-month low of 6% (-4pp) and capital spending plans dropped to a 3-month low.
- 26% (+3pp over the previous month) said labor quality of availability was their single most important problem and 20% said that inflation was their biggest issue, nearly 3 times the long-term average.
- A net 31% plan to raise their own prices in the next 3 months, up from 28% in July and August.
- On the positive side, expectations for higher real sales improved 3 points in September. This suggests that rising costs, particularly for energy and borrowing, pose a greater threat than weakening demand, which so far shows little sign of faltering.
US: Existing home sales (Sept.): 3.99M vs 3.95M expected (prior: 3.93M revised from 3.98M)
- Existing home sales increased 1.5% m/m.
- With the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rate up to 7.5% (vs 6.2% at the start of the year), high borrowing costs (highest since November 2023) will continue to be a serious headwind for potential buyers. This could put additional downward pressure on home prices.
vendredi, octobre 09
US consumer confidence down again
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct. Prel.): 46.3 vs 47.6 expected (prior: 48.1)
- Current conditions: 44.7 vs 50.1 expected (prior: 48.1)
- Expectations: 47.3 vs 45.7 expected (prior: 46.3)
- The current situation gauge fell to the lowest level ever, while the expectations index edged higher for the first time since July. The view of buying conditions for durable goods fell to a record low.
- Consumers expect prices to increase 4.7% over the next year, up slightly from 4.6%.
- Despite very weak sentiment amid higher gasoline and food prices as well as rising interest rates, consumer spending has remained resilient thanks to a steady labor market and a buoyant stock market.
Italy: Industrial production (Aug.): -1.3% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)
- IP y/y: 0.0% vs 2.1% expected (prior: -0.1%)
jeudi, octobre 08
US: still low weekly jobless claims
US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.3): 197k vs 200k expected (prior: 193k revised from 197k)
- Continuing claims at 1716 k after 1693 k the prior week.
US: Wholesale inventories (Aug.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Sales were up by 1.8% m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month.
- Inventories have increased for autos and machinery but decreased on computers over the month.
UK: RICS house price balance (Sept.): -32% vs -30% expected (prior: -28%)
- Sentiment in housing has decreased from the prior month.
- Views on sales, agreed sales, future demand and prices were slightly more negative than the prior month.