Synthèse Daily Macro
mercredi, octobre 15
Sharp rebound in US NY Empire manufacturing
US: Empire manufacturing (Oct.): 10.7 vs -1.8 expected (prior: -8.7)
- Business confidence has unexpectedly sharply rebounded over the month.
- Sentiment on current situation and 6-M expectations have both rebounded, driven by higher new orders, shipments and employment.
- On the negative side, prices paid and received have rebounded in parallel.
Eurozone: Industrial production (Aug.): -1.2% m/m vs -1.6% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)
- Industrial activity has contracted over the month, but less than expected by the consensus.
- All sectors were down over the month, except non-durable consumer goods.
- Activity remained highly volatile over the month, notably at sector level.
France: CPI (Sept.): -1.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Final data confirmed the decline in prices, driven by falling transport costs (-13.5% m/m) and decreasing food prices. On the opposite, prices of clothes have continued to rise over the month (3.3% m/m after 5.6% m/m prior month).
- Yearly trend has increased from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 1.1% y/y.
Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)
- Final data were slightly higher than expected due to strong rise in clothes (18.8% m/m) while food and recreation-culture prices were down over the month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.7% y/y the prior month to 3% y/y.
Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m (prior: 0%)
- Prices were stable over the month; prices of clothes and education were strongly up over the month but balanced by falling prices for food, transport-energy and recreation-culture.
- Yearly trend remained stable at 2.9% y/y.
Sweden: CPI (Sept.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Prices were up over the month for clothes, culture and restaurants-hotels, while they declined for food, housing and transport sectors.
- Yearly trend has marginally declined from 3.2% y/y prior month to 3.1%y and core inflation slightly decreased from 2.9% to 2.7% y/y. While trend in headline inflation is lowering, inflation in services remained sustained up by 4.3% y/y.
mardi, octobre 14
US: falling business confidence among small and medium-sized firms
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Sept.): 98.8 vs 100.6 expected (prior: 100.8)
- Confidence in small firms has sharply decreased over the month; the major changes came from falling sentiment on future economy and sales, while uncertainties have regained.
- After three months of an improving index, confidence has reverted.
Germany: Zew (Oct.): 39.3 vs 41.1 expected (prior: 37.3)
- Expectations have regained progressively after the fall seen past July.
- Sentiment on current situation has decreased again and the index was back to the lows seen in H1-25.
- By sector, sentiment among financial community has decreased for retail and auto sectors, while it has improved for chemical, pharma, electronics and IT sectors.
Germany: CPI (Sept.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Final data confirmed modest rebound in inflation over the month driven by strong seasonal rebound in clothes and education; prices have declined over the month for energy-transport.
- Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y; note that several sectors such as food, health, education and hotels offer yearly trend still far above the 2% y/y trend.
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Sept.): -1.8% m/m (prior: -1.8%)
- Prices remained in negative territory; import prices were down by 0.5% m/m (-0.4% m/m prior month), and producer prices were just flat over the month (-0.8% m/m prior month).
- Yearly trend remained stable over the month but negative for import prices (-2.7% y/y) and also negative for producer prices (-1.4% y/y after -1.3% y/y the prior month). Import prices remained the main deflationary forces in the Swiss economy.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 4.8% vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.7%)
- Claimant count has increased from 4.3% the prior month to 4.4%. Jobless claims has rebounded to 25.8 k after -2k the prior month.
- Employment (3M average) has increased by 91 k after 232 k the prior month; unemployed over 12M has increased significantly over the period.
- Vacancies have continued to regularly decline.
- Labor remained on a regular downward trend.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 5% y/y vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.8% revised from 4.7%)
- Ex bonuses, wage growth has slowed from 4.8% y/y the prior month to 4.7%, and from 4.7% to 4.4% for the private sector.
- Including bonuses, private sector wage growth remained up by 4.8% (4.7% y/y prior month) and trend remained strong in services (5.1% y/y) and in manufacturing (4.8% y/y).
- Data diverged between wage growth including bonus and this ex-bonus; the trend is slowing down but the BoE may prefer to wait further before cutting its rates again.
lundi, octobre 13
Turkey: seasonal improvement in current account balance
Germany: Wholesale price (Sept.): 0.2% m/m (prior: -0.6%)
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.7% y/y the prior month to 1.2% y/y.
Turkey: Current account (Aug.): 5.46bn USD vs 5.40bn expected (prior: 1.71bn revised from 1.77bn)
- Trade deficit on goods has reduced over the month and services surplus has regained as traditionally seen during the summer season.
- Official reserves have regained for the second month.
- Cumulated deficit YTD reached USD 15.9 bn and projections point to USD 18-23 bn total deficit in 2025; financing came mainly from private sector debt and slightly improving official reserves projections over the year.
vendredi, octobre 10
US: marginal decrease for Oct. consumer confidence
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct.): 55 vs 54 expected (prior: 55.1)
- Preliminary data for consumer confidence has shown a marginal decrease from the prior month, and a more modest decrease than expected by the consensus.
- Sentiment on current conditions has regained from the prior month, while expectations have slightly decreased.
- On current situation, opinions have regained about financial situation and current business but decreased on employment.
- Expectations have decreased on future financial situation, employment but business expectations have increased over the month.
- Willingness to buy has regained in favor of autos and houses from the prior month.
- Inflation expectations have stabilized at 3.7% for 5-10y inflation, and 12M inflation slightly declined from 4.7% prior month to 4.6% y/y.
Italy: Industrial production (Aug.): -2.4% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Industrial activity has reverted after modest rebound the prior month.
- All major sectors were down over the month, with, in particular, a reversal of activity seen in durable consumer goods and capital goods.
Norway: CPI (Sept.): 0.4% m/m (prior: -0.6%)
- Prices have re-accelerated for clothes, housing, communication and education, while some decline was seen in food and hotels-restaurants. Core inflation was up by 0.2%m/m after -0.7% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend was slightly up by 3.6% y/y (3.5% y/y prior month) and core inflation at 3% y/y (after 3.1% y/y prior month).
Sweden: Retail sales (Aug.): 0.4% m/m (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)
- Yearly trend on consumption was up by 2.5% y/y after 2.7% y/y the prior month.
Sweden: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.9% m/m (prior: -1.6% revised from -1.7%)
- Manufacturing production was up by 5.1% m/m after -5.3% m/m prior month, while services were up by 0.1% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month).
Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Sept.): -36.5 vs -37 expected (prior: -39.9)
- Consumer confidence was less negative than prior month; the improvement was mainly coming from a less negative sentiment about financial situation and economic outlook.
jeudi, octobre 09
German exports to US and eurozone remained depressed
Germany: Trade Balance (Aug.): 17.2bn EUR vs 15bn expected (prior: 16.3bn revised from 14.7bn)
- Exports were weak, down by 0.5% m/m after -0.2% m/m the prior month; imports were down by a stronger 1.3% m/m after -0.7% m/m prior month, which pushed trade surplus higher over the month.
- Exports have contracted for eurozone and US destinations (-2.5% m/m), while they were up by 5.4% m/m to China.
UK: RICS house price balance (Sept.): -15% vs -18% expected (prior: -18% revised from -19%)
- Sentiment on prices were less negative over the month; opinions on future sales have decreased from the prior month but agreed sales were less negative from the prior month.
Turkey: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.4% m/m (prior: -1.7% revised from -1.8%)
- Monthly and yearly trend has improved on total production, but activity remained volatile at sector level on a monthly basis.
- Production has rebounded for manufacturing (0.7% m/m after -2.2% m/m prior month), while it has reversed for energy-electricity.