Synthèse Daily Macro

US: ADP Employment change (July): 44k vs 65k expected (prior: 95k revised from 98k)

• Job creations have decreased over the month; the largest fall were seen in medium-sized firms (from 29 k the prior month to 8k) and in services (from 93 k to 47k).
• Within services, a reversal was seen in leisure (from 2 k to -11 k), trade-transport (from 15k to -8k) and jobs created decreased also in education-health (from 48k to 36k).

 

US: Services PMI (July): 54.6 vs 53.6 expected (prior: 51.2)

• Final business sentiment came stronger than the first estimate and increased further from the prior month.
• Domestic demand was stronger thanks to Independence Day and FIFA sport events, while exports remained weak.
• Employment was modestly up while costs continue to rise above trend.
• Selling prices have strongly rebounded over the month

 

US: ISM Services (July): 54.1 vs 54.5 expected (prior: 54)

• ISM has increased less than expected over the month (more large firms and export oriented than the PMI index).
• Activity was stronger over the month, and new orders and exports have also increased but backlog of orders have decreased.
• Employment has decreased and prices paid have strongly rebounded after a pause in June.

 

Eurozone: Services PMI (July): 51.7 vs 51.6 expected (prior: 49.4)

• Business sentiment in services has been confirmed higher than prior month. Sentiment on new business has increased and the related index passed above 50 at 52.4.
• The index has increased in France and Germany but remained below 50; index has strongly rebounded in Spain (58.3 after 54.2) and increased further in Italy (52.5 after 50.2).
• Services have benefited from a stronger domestic demand, while exports remained weak. Employment has slightly increased, and costs and selling prices have modestly increased over the month.

 

Eurozone: PPI (June): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Energy prices were down by 1.5% m/m (-1.0% prior month), while prices for intermediate goods were up by 0.3% m/m and prices for capital and consumer goods up by 0.2% m/m.
• Yearly trend has declined from 5.9% y/y prior month to 4.6% y/y.

 

France: Industrial production (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Production has increased over the month in electricity and utilities, while it has strongly declined for manufacturing sector (-1.1% m/m after -1.0% m/m prior month).

 

UK: Services PMI (July): 52.1 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 48.8)

• Business sentiment in services has increased more than initially estimated from the prior month.
• Activity and new orders have rebounded over the month, but exports have weakened, except demand from Europe.
• Despite this rebound in activity, employment remained under contraction; input prices have slowed down but costs and selling prices have continued to trend higher, even at more modest pace.

US: Trade balance (June): -73.3 bn USD vs -73 bn expected (prior: -77.6 bn)

• Exports were down by 0.9% m/m (-3.2% m/m prior month) and imports down by 1.8% m/m (3.3% m/m prior month).
• Exports remained sustained for autos and consumers goods, while imports have contracted over the month on all major products.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (June): 7359k vs 7454k expected (prior: 7537k revised from 7594k)

• Job openings have decreased over the month and prior month data were revised lower.
• Openings have increased for trade-transport sector, but decreased for education-health, professional business and leisure hospitality. Demand for health sector has decreased after a surge in demand in April and May.
• Hirings have increased over the month, with some sectors on the rise: trade-transport, business services and education-health.
• Quitters and separations have slightly accelerated over the month, with still the same sectors under the spotlights: trade-transport, education-health and business services.
• Demand for labor has moderated but some sectors concentrate the demand and also the turnover.

 

US: Factory orders (June): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -1.3%)

• Orders for capital goods nondefense and ex-aircraft (core orders) were up by 1.2% m/m after 1.9% m/m prior month.
• Shipments were down by 0.2% m/m (1.6% m/m prior month), but strongly up for core goods (2% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month).
• Inventories were up by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and up by 0.2% m/m for core goods (0.1% m/m prior month).

US: Manufacturing PMI (July): 53.9 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 53.9)

• Final data pointed to a stable business sentiment form the prior month.
• Production has increased as well as new orders but at a slow pace; demand was mainly fueled by domestic demand and export orders decreased.
• Employment has increased and costs and selling prices were on a soft rising trend.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (July): 55.6 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 53.3)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded over the month; opinions have improved about production, new orders, exports and employment over the month.
• Prices paid have slightly declined but the related index remained at a very high level.

 

US: Construction spending (June): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.1%)

• Non-residential spending was up by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m the prior month), while residential spending was down by 0.3% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (July): 51.9 vs 52 expected (prior: 51.4)

• Final data pointed to a rebound in sentiment from the prior month, but slightly less than expected.
• Production was firmer but activity has diverged across countries: the rebound was led by Germany, while production has weakened in France and Spain. Firms have reduced inventories, while disruption (long time of delivery) remained a constraint, and new exports were globally down over the month.
• Employment has decreased over the month; costs remained on the rise but selling prices have moderated, compared to previous months.
• The Germany PMI manufacturing index was up to 52.2 (50.3 prior month), up to 50.2 from 49.7 in Spain, down from 52.2 to 51.3 in Italy and down from 51.2 to 49.8 in France.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (July): 51.9 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 52.5)

• Final PMI manufacturing came lower than initially estimated and prior month. Production has rebounded over the month, mainly in large firms, with improving new orders and rising new exports (from US, Europe and Asia).
• Input prices have moderated, with pressures on selected sectors (chemicals, electricals and electronics), and selling prices have moderated.
• Employment was positive, thanks to firmer activity, but it has increased at a very moderate pace.

 

Germany: Retail sales (June): -1.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 1.1%)

• Sales have reversed after the rebound seen the prior month.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (July): 49 vs 47.5 expected (prior: 46.1)

• Business confidence has rebounded over the month; new orders regained at 46.4 after 42.6 prior month.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (July): 55.8 (prior: 58 revised from 58.3)

• Business confidence has declined over the month for all major sectors, including prices.

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (July): 53.2 vs 54.9 expected (prior: 54.3)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions have decreased on production and slightly about new orders; employment has decreased while delivery time and prices have increased.
• Separately, PMI services index has increased from 59.8 to 63.9; this strong rise was quite broad-based across components, including selling prices.

 

Switzerland: CPI (July): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Prices of goods were down by 0.7% m/m (0% m/m prior month) due to a large fall in clothes and household goods prices. Oil and transport prices were down over the month.
• Services were up by 0.2% m/m after 0% m/m prior moth. Core inflation was down by 0.1% m/m after 0% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 0.5% y/y to 0.4% y/y and core inflation remained stable at 0.5% y/y.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (July): 47.7 (prior: 47.1)

• Business sentiment has regained but it remained, as well as new orders, below the 50 level.

 

Turkey: CPI (July): 1.78% m/m vs 1.96% expected (prior: 0.99%)

• Monthly prices have strongly re-accelerated for all sectors over the month, particularly heath care, except clothes.
• Yearly trend has declined from 32.11% y/y prior month to 31.75% y/y; core inflation has regained from 29.84 % y/y to 29.91% y/y.

US: Employment cost index (Q2-26): 0.9% q/q vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Wages were up by 0.9% q as seen in Q1-26. On a yearly trend, cost index remained stable over the past quarters up by 3.4% y/y.

 

US: Chicago PMI (July): 57.6 vs 56 expected (prior: 56.7)

• Business confidence has gained further over the month and the index was back to its high levels.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (July): 55.2 vs 54 expected (prior: 49.5)

• Final consumer confidence came higher than in the first estimate and has shown a strong rebound from the prior month.
• Opinions have improved from past month on both current conditions and expectations. Expectations have rebounded the most from the prior month.
• Views have improved on financial conditions, income and business expectations from the prior month. Opinions pointed that unemployment remained a concern, while expectations pointed towards stable interest rates but rising gasoline prices.
• Willingness to buy autos and houses has increased from the prior month.
• Inflation expectations have improved from the prior month, but remained unchanged in this second estimate: expectations at 12M: 4.2% y/y after 4.6% y/y prior month, and expectations at 5-10y stable at 3.3% y/y.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (July): 2.9% y/y as expected (prior: 2.8%)

• First estimates pointed to a 0.2% m/m rise in monthly prices as expected (-0.1% m/m the prior month).
• The rebound is due to energy, up by 2.4% m/m (-1.8% m/m prior month). Prices of goods were down by 2.2% m/m and services up by 1.1% m/m.
• Yearly trend remained contained, compared to risks from volatile oil prices; energy prices were up by 10% y/y (8.5% y/y the prior month) and services up by 3.3% y/y (3.2% y/y prior month).

 

France: CPI (July): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Flash estimate on inflation pointed to higher prices due a rebound in energy, up by 2.1% m/m after -4.2% m/m the prior month. In parallel, services were up by 1.6% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month).
• On the opposite, prices of goods have decreased by 2% m/m (-0.4% m/m prior month) due to discount.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 2.4% y/y from 2.0% y/y prior month.

 

France: Producer Prices (June): -0.6% m/m (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

• Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.6% y/y.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (July): 2.1% (prior: 2.0%)

• Unemployed has regained after three months of decrease.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (July): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Prices were up by 1.8% y/y after 2.2% y/y prior month.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (July): 6.4% vs 6.3% expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (July): 94.2 vs 92.8 expected (prior: 92.4)

• Consumer sentiment has regained on more positive views on economy, personal situation and outlook.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (July): 89.6 vs 88.8 expected (prior: 88.6 revised from 88.4)

• Business sentiment has slightly increased in the manufacturing sector and also in parallel in services and retail; it has decreased in construction over the month.

 

Italy: CPI (July): -1.0% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Flash estimates pointed to a large monthly decline in prices due to large fall in clothes; prices were up over the month for energy-transport, leisure and communication.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.0% y/y prior month to 2.9% y/y.

 

Poland: CPI (July): 0.8% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.5%)

• According to preliminary estimates, inflation has rebounded over the month due to energy prices, up by 13.9% m/m (-7.4% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.0% y/y after 2.5% y/y prior month.