Synthèse Daily Macro

US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.31): 189k vs 196k expected (prior: 194k revised from 194k)

• Continuing claims: 1718 k after 1695 k prior week.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q3-26): 3.6% q/q vs 2.7% expected (prior: 2.1% revised from 1.4%)

• Output was up by 3.7% q after 2.4% q in Q2; wages were up by 2.9% q after 4.0%.
• Unit labor costs were down by 0.7% q after 1.9% in Q2.
• The strong activity has generated large productivity gains.

Eurozone: PPI (Sept.): 2.5% m/m as expected (prior: 2.0% revised from 1.9%)

• Prices have rebounded over the month due to strong rise in energy prices, up by 7.8% m/m after 5.6% m/m the prior month. Other sectors have shown limited monthly rises.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 8.3% y/y prior month to 11.1% y/y.

France: Industrial production (Sept.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.3%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
• While total production contracted for a third month, drivers of the fall were different and activity at sector level has become more volatile and contrasted.
• Activity has rebounded for refineries, transport, auto and electronic sectors, while it has declined for pharma and electricity-gas sectors.

Germany: Factory orders (Sept.): 4.4% m/m vs 4.5% expected (prior: -10.1% revised from -10.6%)

• The rebound was driven by consumer goods (14.4% m/m after -6.8% m/m prior month) and also capital goods (5.3% m/m after -14.9% m/m prior month).
• Domestic orders have rebounded the most over the month; for consumer goods, both domestic and foreign orders have rebounded over the month.

UK: BoE has increased its key rates by 25bp to 4.0%.

• The bank mentioned upside risks in inflation and downside risks in activity. Activity was resilient, partly due to benefits from AI. Nevertheless, no second-round effects from energy were identified in prices.
• According to BoE, energy prices could remain high and probably drive headline inflation close to 5% mid-2027. Communication is hawkish and this opens the door to, at least, another possible rate hike.
• Energy prices are volatile and the bank estimated three scenarios (adverse, central and positive scenarios on energy and inflation) pointing to a high inflation in 2027 and a progressive return to target in 2028 in the central case.

Sweden: CPI (Oct.): 0% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Preliminary data pointed to flat inflation and core inflation down by 0.2% m/m over the month; no details by sector were available.
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.5% y/y to 1.1% y/y, and core inflation from 0.5% y/y to 0.1% y/y.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Oct.): 3.1% as expected (prior: 3.1%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month but rate remained stable.

US: ADP Employment change (Oct.): 86k vs 67k expected (prior: 86k revised from 90k)

• Job creation remained stable over the month, after some adjustment in the prior month.
• Creations were more sustained over the month for small and large firms, while they decreased for medium-sized firms.
• Creations were sustained in services (82 k after 56 k the prior month), driven by a rebound in trade-transport sector.

US: Trade balance (Sept.): -105 bn USD vs -107.9 bn expected (prior: -105.7 bn revised from -105.6 bn)

• Trade deficit excluding oil increased to USD 116.4 bn after USD -114.9 bn the prior month.
• Exports were up by 1.9% m/m (1.6% m/m prior month): exports were dynamic for food, capital goods and consumer goods.
• Imports were up by 1.2% m/m (4.4% m/m prior month). Imports were concentrated and strong for capital goods and were also sustained for consumer goods.

US: Services PMI (Oct.): 56.1 vs 57.9 expected (prior: 58.8)

• Final confidence index came below the first estimate and pointed to a decline from the prior month.
• While indicators remained well above the 50 level, all major ones pointed to a decrease in opinions over the month: signals pointed to slower activity, orders and employment while costs and prices paid remained on the rise.

US: ISM Services (Oct.): 54.5 vs 54.8 expected (prior: 54.9)

• Sentiment came lower than the prior month and expectations.
• Details offered a mixed picture; opinions have decreased on activity and new orders but regained on backlog of orders, exports and employment.
• Prices paid have decreased from the prior month, but the index remained at high level.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Oct.): 4.0% y/y as expected (prior: 3.8%)

• Preliminary data pointed to accelerating inflation at renewed high levels.
• Prices were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.6% m/m; energy prices were up by 1.4% m/m (4% m/m, prior month), goods up by 0.6% m/m (2.1% m/m prior month), services up by 0.2% m/m (-0.7% m/m prior month), and food up by 0.4% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m but its yearly trend remained stable at 2.5% y/y.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Oct.): 51.4 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 53)

• Final data have decreased more than initially expected over the month. New orders have decreased, the related index passing below the 50 level at 49.8 after 52.4 prior month.
• Except Italy (index up from 51.7 to 52, with rising new business), other major countries faced declining sentiment; the largest fall was in France, index down from 51.2 to 46.2 (48.4 in first estimate), with falling new orders (44.8 after 49.7 prior month.
• The German index has slightly decreased from 52.9 to 52.5, and new orders were down below 50 (at 49.6 after 52.3); the Spanish index has decreased (from 58.3 to 57.2), but it remained on high level.
• Activity in services has decreased, with a large fall in France; employment has decreased and prices have also declined for the first time since July.

UK: Services PMI (Oct.): 52.8 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Final PMI pointed to a rise from the prior month but at a slower pace than initially estimated.
• Sentiment on new orders has rebounded but less than first estimate (from 50.3 to 52.9).
• Activity was stronger thanks to domestic demand while new exports orders were lower.
• Employment has increased over the month; costs have sharply increased but selling prices have increased at a slower pace due to intense competition.

Sweden: Riksbank has increased key rates by 25 bp to 2.0% as expected

• The door remained open to another rate hike depending on future activity and inflation.
• Financial conditions have tightened but remained accommodative according to the bank.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Sept.): 7523k vs 7164k expected (prior: 7190k revised from 7079k)

• Demand for jobs has strongly rebounded and prior month data were revised higher.
• Demand has increased particularly for trade-transport (1283 k) and professional business (1310 k), two cyclical sectors.
• Demand came lower over the month but remained high for education-health (1614 k) and leisure-hospitality (779 k).
• Demand for labor has also increased in public sector: 880 k after 782 k the prior month.
• Layoffs have decreased over the month and Quits have increased but pointing to more confidence in finding new jobs.

US: Factory orders (Sept.): 1.8% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were up by 0.6% m/m after 1.5% m/m the prior month.
• Shipments were up by 1.3% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month) and inventories were up by 0.4% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month).

Switzerland: CPI (Oct.): 0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0%)

• Prices of energy have increased by 3.5% m/m after 2.3% m/m; prices of goods were up by 0.8% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month, fueled by higher prices of clothes (3.7% m/m); services were down by 0.2% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month. Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m (0% prior month).
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 1.5% y/y after 1.0% y/y prior month, and core inflation remained stable at 0.5% y/y.

Turkey: CPI (Oct.): 2.58% m/m vs 2.40% expected (prior: 1.84%)

• Inflation remained sustained over the month; prices have accelerated further for food, clothes, utility, transport and communication.
• Yearly trend has slightly regained to 29.77% y/y after 29.73% y/y the prior month; core inflation has declined from 28.70% y/y prior month to 28.28% y/y.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 54.9 vs 56 expected (prior: 55.9)

• Final business sentiment came lower than the first estimate.
• Opinions have decreased on production from the prior month, and new orders were lower but still above the 50 marks. Domestic demand and export sales were firm.
• Delivery time has increased and disruption in several sectors was mentioned.
• Costs have strongly regained, due to energy, fuel, transport and metal prices. Firms have increased their selling prices in parallel.

US: ISM Manufacturing (Oct.): 55.5 vs 54.5 expected (prior: 54.5)

• ISM manufacturing has increased over the month.
• Views were more positive on production, new exports, new orders and on inventories.
• Opinions have decreased on employment and also slightly on prices paid but its related index remained at a high level.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 52.7 vs 52.4 expected (prior: 52.9)

• Business sentiment has slightly decreased from the prior month, but less than in the first estimate (52.4). New orders have decreased (from 52.5 to 51.8) but less than initially estimated.
• Opinions have decreased on current production and new orders, but exports have surged and employment has improved.
• Costs have increased sharply (energy, fuel, transport) and disruption in delivery has been high. Selling prices have increased further.
• By country, the PMI manufacturing index has fallen in France (from 50.6 to 49.5) and in Italy (from 50.4 to 49.4). It has increased in Spain (from 51 to 52.2) and in Germany (54.2 after 53.9).

Germany: Retail sales (Sept.): -2.0% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 1.3%)

• After a rebound the prior month, sales have sharply declined over the month. The decline was broad-based across sectors, except for fuel. The largest fall was seen in IT goods and recreation sector.

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 50 vs 49.4 expected (prior: 49)

• Business sentiment has improved over the month; new orders have increased to 48.4 from 46.4 the prior month but remained below the 50 mark.

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 60.5 (prior: 58.5 revised from 58.1)

• Business opinions have surged over the month, with a strong rise in production; views have also improved on employment.
• Opinions have marginally decreased on new orders and exports over the month.

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 56.7 vs 55.4 expected (prior: 55.3)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded over the month; opinions have strongly increased on production and improved on new orders. Delivery time has increased while employment has decreased over the month.
• Prices have slightly increased further.
• Separately, the PMI services has marginally increased from 59.8 to 59.9. Views have slightly improved on activity and employment while they decreased for new orders and selling prices.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 52.8 as expected (prior: 51.9)

• Business sentiment has increased further and was in line with first estimate; opinions on new orders have increased less than initially estimated (51.8 from 52.1 and 51.2 prior month).
• Production has increased further and also new orders, favored by investment good sector.
• Exports have also broadly rebounded. Employment remained stable except in few sectors. Disruption have increased further related to shipping, port congestion and metal shortages.
• Costs have strongly increased over the month, and part of this rise was passed through to final clients.

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 47.3 (prior: 47.9)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; views on new orders have decreased from 46.9 prior month to 46.3.