Synthèse Daily Macro

US: Initial jobless claims (July 25): 197k vs 200k expected (prior: 188k revised from 187k)

• Continuing claims: 1782 k after 1789 k the prior week.

 

US: GDP (Q2-26): 1.5% q/q vs 2.0% expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Total GDP came lower than expected: the drag was due to negative contributions from net exports (-1 pp) and from falling inventories (-0.67 pp), while private domestic sales were booming, up by 3.9% q/q after 1.7% q/q in Q1.
• By sector, consumption has strongly rebounded in Q2, thanks to fiscal support and despite oil prices surge; it was up by 3.2%q (0.5% in Q1), thanks to a strong rebound in durable goods (6.8%q/q) and back-to-trend services (2.2%q/q).
• Investment was again sustained: equipment up by 15.2% q/q (15.8% q/q in Q1), AI-R&D up by 8.8%q/q (13.8% q/q in Q1); housing has also recovered, up by 1.5% q/q after -7.8% q/q in Q1; investment in structure has continued to fall, down by 5% q/q after 4.7% q/q.
• Exports were up by 4.5% q/q but imports up by 11.5% q/q due to imported goods related to investment surge. Inventories have declined over the quarter; net trade and inventories have both contributed to reduce GDP versus expectations.
• Behind this moderate GDP growth in Q2, private domestic sales have accelerated, and such a pace looks not sustainable for the next quarters.

 

US: Personal income (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Wage growth was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month; disposable income was up by 0.2% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and real disposable income up by 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month).
• Saving ratio has decreased from 2.8% to 2.7%; Note the saving ratio has declined from 3.5% in March to 2.7% in June, this decline being a support to firm consumption in Q2.

 

US: Personal spending (June): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.7%)

• Spending has slowed down from the prior month but was still sustained for autos and hotels-recreation in relation with the FIFA Cup.

 

US: Core PCE deflator (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Core PCE has declined from 3.4% y/y prior month to 3.3% y/y.
• Over the month, rises in transport, maintenance, professional services and personal care were balanced by falling communication services.

 

UK: BoE kept key rates at 3.75%.

• 3 governors have dissented, being in favor of a 25 bp rate hike. The majority voted for a hold but also for maintaining a flexible strategy over the next months as risks related to oil prices remain active.
• The bank remained cautious about growth and labor, while it expects inflation to peak to 3.2% y/y in Q4-26. Inflation should come back to 2.1% late 2027 and wage growth to moderate further.

 

Eurozone: GDP (Q2-25): 0.4% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.2%)

• Growth was stronger than expected but also boosted by Irish GDP, up by 3.9% q (-7%q in Q1). Excluding Ireland, GDP growth was up around 0.3% in Q2 and Q1.

 

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (July): -6.1 vs -7 expected (prior: -7.5 revised from -7.7)

• Business confidence has improved from the prior month, as seen in flash PMIs.
• Sentiment has improved in production and was less negative about new orders, exports and employment.
• Prices pressures have decreased.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (July): -15.9 as expected (prior: -17.6)

• Confidence was less negative than prior month.
• Opinions improved about financial situation, prices, unemployment and economic situation.
• Nevertheless, preference for saving has increased further.

 

Eurozone: Services confidence (July): 4.7 vs 3.8 expected (prior: 4.2 revised from 3.2)

• Sentiment has regained in services from the prior month, also revised up.
• Opinions improved on current activity, future demand, employment; pressures on prices were lower.
• In parallel, sentiment has improved on retail but decreased on construction sectors.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (June): 6.3% vs 6.2% expected (prior: 6.3% revised from 6.2%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

 

France: Consumer spending (June): 0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.5%)

• Spending has rebounded but prior month data were revised down. Spending was sustained for energy (gasoline prices) and food, while they decreased on autos and clothes.

 

France: GDP (Q2-260.2): 0.2% q/q as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Growth has rebounded but the views on sectors pointed to ongoing fragilities.
• Consumption has rebounded to 0.2%q after -0.3%q in Q1 mainly driven by purchases of autos. Public consumption remained on a sustained trend, up by 0.4%q after 0.3%q.
• Capex was weak due to housing and public sector; private corporate capex was up by 0.1%q after -0.5%q.
• Exports have strongly rebounded (aircraft, equipment) and net contribution to GDP has regained from -0.8 pp in Q1 to 0.6 pp. Inventories have decreased, being a 0.6 pp drag on GDP (+0.9pp in Q1).
• Growth remained positive but private consumption and capex stayed fragile with moderate growth.

 

Germany: GDP (Q2-26): 0.2% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

• First estimate was better than expected, with limited slowdown after the strong Q1; exports have driven activity in Q2 after investment led the rebound in Q1.

 

Germany: CPI (July): 0.9% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Preliminary data have shown a rebound in inflation due higher energy, transport, leisure and health care prices.
• Prices declined for clothes and household goods over the month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 2.8% y/y after 2.4% y/y prior month.

 

Italy: GDP (Q2-26): 0.2% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data pointed to a still sustained growth despite oil shock.
• According to statistic office, growth was driven by domestic demand, helped by the public measures adopted to smooth energy shock, and by higher inventories.

 

Italy: PPI (June): 0% m/m (prior: -0.5%)

• Yearly trend declined from 9.1% y/y prior month to 6.8% y/y.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (June): 5.7% vs 5.0% expected (prior: 5.3% revised from 5.0%)

• Unemployed has rebounded over the month, up by 97 k after -23 k the prior month.

 

Spain: GDP (Q2-26): 0.7% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Growth remained sustained in Q2, and major sectors remained positively oriented.
• Private consumption was up by 0.7%q (0.6%q in Q1 and has benefited from public support in the recent oil shock; capex was up by 0.5%q (0.1%q in Q1) but mainly driven by intellectual property (R&D-AI) up by 1.7%q after 0.9%q in Q1.
• Exports were up by 0.8%q and imports up by 0.6%q.

 

Spain: CPI (July): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Preliminary data pointed to monthly decrease in inflation, but yearly trend has re-accelerated from 3.6% y/y prior month to 3.8% y/y.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (June): 1% m/m (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)

• Yearly trend in sales has slowed down from 8.1% y/y prior month to 6.6% y/y.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (July): 97.1 (prior: 94.2 revised from 93.6)

• Confidence has rebounded over the month; views have improved on both economic conditions and personal situation.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (July): 107.9 (prior: 105.2 revised from 105.1)

• Sentiment has regained in goods production over the month.

 

Switzerland: KOF (July): 103.5 vs 100.9 expected (prior: 102.1 revised from 101.2)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded over the month and the index was back to its pre-war level.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (June): 7.6% vs 8.2% expected (prior: 8.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.

 

Poland: Unemployment rate (June): 5.8% as expected (prior: 5.9%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.

UK: M4 (June): 5.0% y/y (prior: 4.3%)

• Mortgage approvals have rebounded to 58.2 k from 56.6 k the prior month. M4 lending was up by 7.5% y/y after 6.1% y/y; credit to consumers have increased further over the month. 

Norway: Retail sales (June): 1.8% m/m (prior: -2.4% revised from -2.1%)

• Sales have rebounded over the month, driven by food and household goods purchases.

Sweden: GDP (Q2-26): 1.4% q/q vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Preliminary data for Q2 GDP have shown a rebound in activity after weak Q1.

US: Wholesale inventories (June): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

• Inventories have increased over the month on durable goods but decreased for non-durable goods.
• Inventories in the retail sector were flat over the month, but inventories on autos have increased over the month.

 

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (May): 1.63% y/y vs 1.30% expected (prior: 1.18% revised from 1.14%)

• Prices for 20 cities were up by 0.15% m/m after 0% m/m the prior month (sa data).
• Over the month, 10 cities have shown a monthly decline in prices and only three cities offered a monthly rise above 0.5% m/m.
• Yearly trend (non-sa data) was negative for only 7 cities over 20 cities in the survey.

 

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (July): 5 vs 6 expected (prior: 4)

• Business sentiment has regained on current activity, thanks to firmer business conditions, higher shipments, capex and employment, while new orders have decreased from the prior month.
• The 6-month index has decreased on lower new orders and business conditions.
• Prices paid and selling prices have declined over the month.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (July): 90.8 vs 92.4 expected (prior: 92.2 revised from 91.2)

• Consumer confidence has decreased from the prior month, which data were slightly revised up.
• Expectations remained stable, while sentiment on current conditions has decreased over the month.
• Labor conditions were seen as less plentiful on the short term; the 6-month views remained cautious on future activity, but constructive on labor.
• Future purchases came lower for autos and houses but slightly on the rise for major appliances.
• Average inflation expectations came lower from 5.9% y/y prior month to 5.5% y/y.

 

France: Consumer confidence (July): 86 vs 85 expected (prior: 84)

• Consumer confidence has improved over the month, but the index remained at low level; opinions were less negative about personal financial situation and global economy.
• Worries have decreased about unemployment over the month, but preference for saving has increased further.

 

Spain: Retail sales (real) (June): 0.5% y/y (prior: 1.3%)

• Sales were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month. Purchases of household goods were down by 0.9% m/m (2.2% m/m prior month).
• Sales ex-gasoline were up by 0.2% m/m and up by 1.7% y/y.

 

Spain: Unemployment rate (Q2-26): 9.87% vs 10.1% expected (prior: 10.83% revised from %)

• Unemployed has decreased over the quarter, and the participation rate has increased.

 

Brazil: CPI (July): 0.06% m/m (prior: 0.22%)

• Prices of food and clothes have decreased over the month, while costs regained for housing.
• Yearly trend has declined from 4.80% y/y the prior month to 4.52% y/y.

US: Durable goods orders (June): 0.3% m/m vs 1.8% expected (prior: -4.0% revised from -4.5%)

• Preliminary data pointed to a still sustained cape cycle. Orders were up for defense, aircraft, computer, electrical equipment and primary metals, while down on autos.
• Orders for core capital goods (capital excluding aircraft and defense sectors), were up by 0.9% m/m after 1.9% m/m prior month.
• Shipments were up by 0.7% m/m (1.1% m/m prior month) and up by a strong 1.5% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month) for core capital goods.
• Inventories were up by 0.3% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month) and up by 0.2% m/m for core capital gods (0.1% m/m prior month).
• These data pointed to a still strong demand from firms on capex goods and related AI equipment.

 

Germany: IFO (July): 86.6 vs 86 expected (prior: 85.7 revised from 85.6)

• Business sentiment has improved, as seen in last PMI manufacturing.
• Expectations have rebounded over the month (index at 86.7 after 84.3 prior month), but sentiment on current conditions has eroded (from 87 to 86.5).
• By sector, opinions were less negative in all major sectors such as manufacturing, services, trade and construction.

 

Eurozone: M3 (June): 3.3% y/y as expected (prior: 3.0% revised from 3.2%)

• M1 was up by 3.4% y/y after 3.7% y/y prior month and M2 up by 3.2% y/y after 3.0% y/y.
• Credit to the private sector remained stable at 3.3% y/y.

 

Brazil: Consumer confidence (July): 88.3 (prior: 88.7)

• Consumer confidence has decreased over the month; sentiment on current situation has decreased while expectations were higher than the prior month.