Synthèse Daily Macro

US: Empire manufacturing (Jan.): 7.7 vs 1 expected (prior: -3.7 revised from -3.9)

• Business sentiment has rebounded over the month. Index was volatile past months, but underlying trend is improving over the quarters.
• The improvement was driven by new orders and shipments, but opinions have nevertheless decreased for employment and prices.
• The 6-month index has slightly decreased over the month, but this index remained high; the decrease was driven by lower new orders.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Jan.): 12.6 vs -1.4 expected (prior: -8.8 revised from -10.2)

• Business sentiment has rebounded over the month; the index has regained after 3 months of depressed data.
• The improvement was driven by higher orders, and shipments, while opinions have decreased for prices paid and employment.
• The 6-month index has decreased over the month on lower new orders.

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan. 10): 198k vs 215k expected (prior: 208k)

• Continuing claims: 1884 k after 1903 k the prior week.

Eurozone: Industrial production (Nov.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.8%)

• Production remained on a firm monthly trend, but disparities remained large across sectors; activity has decreased in energy and consumer goods while it has rebounded in capital goods.
• Disparities and volatility also remained large in industrial activity across euro countries over the month.

France: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Final data confirmed moderate rise in monthly inflation.
• Prices have decreased for energy (-1.6% m/m; -6.8% y/y) and manufacturing prices (-0.3% m/m).
• On the opposite, prices of fresh food were sustained (up by 1.4% m/m) and services remained sustained (up by 0.4% m/m; 2.1% y/y).
• The yearly trend has slightly declined from 0.8% y/y prior month to 0.7% y/y.

Germany: Wholesale price (Dec.): -0.2% m/m (prior: 0.3%)

• Yearly trend has declined from 1.5% y/y prior month to 1.2% y/y.

Italy: Industrial production (Nov.): 1.5% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1.0%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded in all sectors, except activity in durable consumer goods down by 1.3% m/m over the month after -0.9% m/m prior month.

Spain: CPI (Dec.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Final data were in line with first estimates; prices of clothes have declined over the month, while prices of recreation-culture goods were on the rise.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.2% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y.

Poland: CPI (Dec.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Prices have sharply decreased for clothes and moderately for fuels; prices have shown some acceleration on prices for household equipment.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.5% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y.

Sweden: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Prices have decreased for utilities, household goods and restaurants-hotels, but have accelerated for culture-leisure over the month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 0.3% y/y for headline inflation and declined from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.3% y/y for core inflation.

UK: Industrial production (Nov.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.1%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 2.1% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month; the rebound was driven by transport equipment, pharma, textile, intermediary and basic goods.
• In parallel, services activity was up by 0.3% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month, and construction down by 1.3% m/m (-1.2% m/m prior month).
• Monthly proxy for GDP was up by 0.3% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month.

US: Retail sales (Nov.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.0%)

• Ex autos & gasoline: 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)
• Retail sales regained momentum in November, with strength concentrated in typical holiday categories such as sporting goods (+1.9% m/m) and a modest rebound in car sales (+1.0%) after a sharp decline in October.
• This report adds to evidence that the US consumer remains resilient.

US: PPI (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• PPI y/y: 3.0% vs 2.7% expected (prior: 2.8%)
• PPI ex food & energy: 0.0% vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%); 3.0% y/y vs 2.7% expected (prior: 2.9%)
• Wholesale inflation slightly increased in November mainly as a result of a rise in energy costs.
• This release confirms that companies continue to limit the degree to which they pass along higher import duties to avoid lower sales.

US: Existing home sales (Dec): 4.35M vs 4.22M expected (prior: 4.14M revised from 4.13M)

• Existing home sales rose by a strong 5.1% in December, supported by easing borrowing costs and slower price growth. Indeed, the median sales price increased by only 0.4% y/y, the least in 2.5 years.
• This suggests that the home resale market is likely to gradually recover in 2026 after three very weak years.

US: Business inventories (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

• The inventory to sales ratio edged marginally higher to 1.38.

US: CPI (Dec): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• US CPI posts limited rebound from shutdown distortions as headline yearly prices remained at 2.7% and core remained at 2.6% below 2.7% expected.
• Inflationary pressures are primarily concentrated in the core service sector, with an increase of 3.0% y/y in December, in line with November’s 3.0% y/y reading.
• The core goods sector (ex-energy and food) experienced an increase of 1.4% y/y, in line with November’s 1.4% y/y increase and defied expectations of a rebound, likely explained by a slump of -1.3% m/m of Used Cars and Trucks. However, the category most sensitive to tariffs, household furnishings and supplies accelerated to 3.4% y/y from 2.6% y/y.
• There was a bounce-back in shelter costs: it increased by 3.1% y/y, higher than the 3.0% y/y increase recorded in November. The monthly reading was 0.4%.
• In terms of inflation outlook, the current report confirms the improvement recorded in November and provide additional reassurance to the more hawkish members of the Committee reinforcing the shift in focus toward labor market developments.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Dec): 99.5 vs 99.2 expected (prior: 99.0)

• Small business sentiment improved in December, driven by brighter expectations for future business conditions.
• Inflation pressures showed signs of easing, with both actual and planned price increases moderating.
• However, labor market signals were mixed: hiring plans softened, but job openings remained high.

US: New home sales (Oct): 737k vs 715k expected (prior: 738k)

• Home sales slipped just 0.1% in October, far better than the expected 10.6% drop, after a 3.8% rise in September.

• However, downward revisions to summer data tempered the optimism. The median home price tumbled 8% y/y, weighed down by bloated inventories

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Dec.): -30.7 vs -33 expected (prior: -33.8)

• Sentiment has regained from the prior month and has rebuilt progressively over the past quarters.
• Opinions have improved about economic outlook, financial situation and willingness to buy items over the period.