Synthèse Daily Macro

Germany: Industrial production (Aug.): 2.0% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1.2% revised from -1.1%)

• Production has strongly rebounded over the month, reflecting higher public orders past months (defense sector).
• Activity has accelerated for capital equipment goods (1.2% m/m after -2.8% m/m prior month); construction was also better oriented, and consumer goods production was up by 0.6% m/m (-3.0% m/m).
• On the opposite, production in energy and intermediate goods was down over the month.

Norway: Industrial production (Aug.): 1% m/m (prior: -7.1%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 0.4% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month.
• Activity in mining and basic metals was strongly up over the month, while other sectors were in a monthly contraction.

Sweden: CPI (Sept.): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Preliminary data pointed to a still sustained monthly rise, due to energy. Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m after -0.5% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.7% y/y prior month to 1.5% y/y. Core inflation remained stable at 0.5% y/y.

US: Trade balance (Aug.): -105.6 bn USD vs -102.1 bn expected (prior: -92.8 bn revised from -88.6 bn)

• Trade deficit has increased over the month, even more excluding oil.
• Exports have increased by 1.4% m/m (-2.1% m/m prior month); exports were dynamic for industrial supplies and capital goods over the month.
• Imports were up by 4.3% m/m after 3.9% m/m; sectors involved were also industrial supplies, capital goods (both are probably related to AI and IT goods) and food imports

Eurozone: Retail sales (Aug.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Sales of gasoline were down by 1.9% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month.
• Sales of goods were up by 0.5% m/m after -1.2% m/m prior month.
• By country, sales have strongly rebounded in Germany over the month.

France: Industrial production (Aug.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.4%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.3% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month.
• Production has strongly increased over the month on refinery and chemicals, but declined for food, autos, pharma and electricity-gaz.
• Production was up by 0.3% y/y after -0.6% y/y prior month.

Germany: Factory orders (Aug.): -10.6% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: 3.2% revised from 2.5%)

• Orders have surprisingly collapsed over the month; the fall was due to a large decline in orders for capital goods by 15.3% m/m (3.4% m/m prior month) and in consumer goods (-7.3% m/m after -4.7% m/m prior month).
• Orders have decreased the most on domestic demand, but they have also contracted for foreign orders.

Spain: Industrial production (Aug.): -0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Production has contracted in all sectors over the month, except for durable consumer goods, up by 1% m/m.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Sept.): 3.1% as expected (prior: 3.1%)

• Unemployed has slightly declined over the month but the ratio remained stable.

US: Services PMI (Sept.): 58.8 vs 58.7 expected (prior: 56.5)

• The final business sentiment in services has increased slightly more than expected over the month. It reached its highest level for five years.
• The improvement was broad-based across major components. Sentiment on activity has increased, driven by higher domestic demand while exports have improved at a slower pace.
• Employment has increased more rapidly over the month than in past months.
• Costs were on the rise due to gas and transport costs. Selling prices have also increased sharply.

US: ISM Services (Sept.): 54.9 vs 55 expected (prior: 55.4)

• Contrary to PMI, the ISM business services came just below expectations and lower than the prior month.
• In details, the picture is mixed: sentiment has decreased on activity and export orders, but it decreased only modestly on new orders from the prior month high level.
• Supply delivery has increased due to constraints from tariffs and disruption in the Middle East.
• Employment was on the rise, while prices paid have again strongly accelerated to reach a four-year high.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Sept.): 53 as expected (prior: 51.6)

• Final PMI services was in line with first estimate; opinions on new orders have increased but less than expected.
• PMI has strongly rebounded in Germany (from 49.7 to 52.9), in France (from 48 to 51.4), and increased in Spain (from 57.8 to 58.3), while the index decreased in Italy (from 55.2 to 51.7).
• New orders have globally increased but they decreased for Italy and Spain, while the index remained below 50 in France (49.7) despite some improvement.
• Domestic activity was better oriented while exports remained flat from the prior month. Employment has increased but at a slower pace than the prior month.
• Costs were on the rise and selling prices have sharply accelerated.

Eurozone: PPI (Aug.): 1.9% m/m as expected (prior: 1.6%)

• Energy prices were up by 5.6% m/m after 5.8% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 5.8% y/y to 8.2% y/y.

UK: Services PMI (Sept.): 52.1 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 52.5)

• Final data were better than in the first estimate; new orders have decreased from prior month, but less than expected and the related index remained just above 50, at 50.3.
• Activity has shown moderate expansion, thanks to dynamic demand for technology services, while exports remained under pressure; job cuts have continued but at a moderate pace.
• Costs remained on the rise and selling prices have accelerated further.

Turkey: CPI (Sept.): 1.84% m/m vs 2.28% expected (prior: 1.84%)

• Inflation has declined for food, but it has increased sharply for education, utilities and clothes over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 31.51% y/y to 29.73% and core inflation from 30.07% y/y prior month to 28.7% y/y.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Sept.): 29k vs 90k expected (prior: 133k revised from 162k)

• Unemployment ratio has increased from 4.1% prior month to 4.2%; wage growth has slowed down, up by 0.1% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month and up by 3.0% y/y (3.1% y/y prior month).
• Payrolls remained highly volatile and were again revised, but lower over the past months. Aug. payrolls were revised from 162 k to 133 k and July data revised from 21 k to -10 k.
• Payrolls have declined in all sectors over the month, except one: trade-transport.
• The largest slowdown came from services: 28 k after 55 k the prior month.
• Within services, jobs created in trade-transport were up (18k after 9 k prior month), while they contracted for business services and government; they also decreased in education-health and leisure-hospitality.
• Jobs created have slowed down in construction and manufacturing sectors but remained positive.
• Labor force has increased over the month as well as unemployed; other measures of unemployment ratio has decreased over the month, contrary to the total unemployment ratio.
• Labor is not overheating, but a high volatility across sectors every month makes identifying the underlying trend more difficult; labor still seems to navigate in the low hiring/ low firing regime.

US: Factory orders (Aug.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.9%)

• Orders have decreased for defense and aircrafts over the month.
• Nevertheless, orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core capital goods) were up by 1.6% m/m after 0.6% m/m.
• Shipments were flat over the month (0.8% m/m prior month) but were up by 0.5% m/m for core capital goods.
• Total inventories and those for core capital goods were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Sept.): 3.8% y/y vs 3.7% expected (prior: 3.2%)

• Inflation was up by 0.6% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month according to flash estimate.
• Energy prices were up by 3.9% m/m after 2.9% m/m (18.8% y/y).
• Prices of goods have accelerated, up by 2.1% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month).
• Services were down by 0.7% m/m (flat the prior month).
• Core inflation has accelerated to 2.5% y/y after 2.4% y/y.
• Energy prices will continue to fuel upside risk on headline inflation at year end.

Norway: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 2.0% (prior: 2.0% revised from 2.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.