Synthèse Daily Macro
US small-business owners turn slightly less optimistic
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Sept.): 97.9 vs 98.2 expected (prior: 98.7)
- Small-business optimism fell to a 3-month low, with 6 of the 10 sub-indices down.
- The net share of owners who expect business conditions to improve declined to a 4-month low of 6% (-4pp) and capital spending plans dropped to a 3-month low.
- 26% (+3pp over the previous month) said labor quality of availability was their single most important problem and 20% said that inflation was their biggest issue, nearly 3 times the long-term average.
- A net 31% plan to raise their own prices in the next 3 months, up from 28% in July and August.
- On the positive side, expectations for higher real sales improved 3 points in September. This suggests that rising costs, particularly for energy and borrowing, pose a greater threat than weakening demand, which so far shows little sign of faltering.
US: Existing home sales (Sept.): 3.99M vs 3.95M expected (prior: 3.93M revised from 3.98M)
- Existing home sales increased 1.5% m/m.
- With the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rate up to 7.5% (vs 6.2% at the start of the year), high borrowing costs (highest since November 2023) will continue to be a serious headwind for potential buyers. This could put additional downward pressure on home prices.
US consumer confidence down again
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct. Prel.): 46.3 vs 47.6 expected (prior: 48.1)
- Current conditions: 44.7 vs 50.1 expected (prior: 48.1)
- Expectations: 47.3 vs 45.7 expected (prior: 46.3)
- The current situation gauge fell to the lowest level ever, while the expectations index edged higher for the first time since July. The view of buying conditions for durable goods fell to a record low.
- Consumers expect prices to increase 4.7% over the next year, up slightly from 4.6%.
- Despite very weak sentiment amid higher gasoline and food prices as well as rising interest rates, consumer spending has remained resilient thanks to a steady labor market and a buoyant stock market.
Italy: Industrial production (Aug.): -1.3% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)
- IP y/y: 0.0% vs 2.1% expected (prior: -0.1%)
US: still low weekly jobless claims
US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.3): 197k vs 200k expected (prior: 193k revised from 197k)
- Continuing claims at 1716 k after 1693 k the prior week.
US: Wholesale inventories (Aug.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Sales were up by 1.8% m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month.
- Inventories have increased for autos and machinery but decreased on computers over the month.
UK: RICS house price balance (Sept.): -32% vs -30% expected (prior: -28%)
- Sentiment in housing has decreased from the prior month.
- Views on sales, agreed sales, future demand and prices were slightly more negative than the prior month.
German industrial production on the rise, benefiting from past public orders
Germany: Industrial production (Aug.): 2.0% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1.2% revised from -1.1%)
- Production has strongly rebounded over the month, reflecting higher public orders past months (defense sector).
- Activity has accelerated for capital equipment goods (1.2% m/m after -2.8% m/m prior month); construction was also better oriented, and consumer goods production was up by 0.6% m/m (-3.0% m/m).
- On the opposite, production in energy and intermediate goods was down over the month.
Norway: Industrial production (Aug.): 1% m/m (prior: -7.1%)
- Manufacturing production was down by 0.4% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month.
- Activity in mining and basic metals was strongly up over the month, while other sectors were in a monthly contraction.
Sweden: CPI (Sept.): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Preliminary data pointed to a still sustained monthly rise, due to energy. Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m after -0.5% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.7% y/y prior month to 1.5% y/y. Core inflation remained stable at 0.5% y/y.
US consumer confidence (Conference Board) lower than expected; Spanish inflation at 5% y/y
US: Trade balance (Aug.): -105.6 bn USD vs -102.1 bn expected (prior: -92.8 bn revised from -88.6 bn)
- Trade deficit has increased over the month, even more excluding oil.
- Exports have increased by 1.4% m/m (-2.1% m/m prior month); exports were dynamic for industrial supplies and capital goods over the month.
- Imports were up by 4.3% m/m after 3.9% m/m; sectors involved were also industrial supplies, capital goods (both are probably related to AI and IT goods) and food imports
Eurozone: Retail sales (Aug.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.6%)
- Sales of gasoline were down by 1.9% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month.
- Sales of goods were up by 0.5% m/m after -1.2% m/m prior month.
- By country, sales have strongly rebounded in Germany over the month.
France: Industrial production (Aug.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.4%)
- Manufacturing production was up by 0.3% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month.
- Production has strongly increased over the month on refinery and chemicals, but declined for food, autos, pharma and electricity-gaz.
- Production was up by 0.3% y/y after -0.6% y/y prior month.
Germany: Factory orders (Aug.): -10.6% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: 3.2% revised from 2.5%)
- Orders have surprisingly collapsed over the month; the fall was due to a large decline in orders for capital goods by 15.3% m/m (3.4% m/m prior month) and in consumer goods (-7.3% m/m after -4.7% m/m prior month).
- Orders have decreased the most on domestic demand, but they have also contracted for foreign orders.
Spain: Industrial production (Aug.): -0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.6%)
- Production has contracted in all sectors over the month, except for durable consumer goods, up by 1% m/m.
Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Sept.): 3.1% as expected (prior: 3.1%)
- Unemployed has slightly declined over the month but the ratio remained stable.