Synthèse Daily Macro

US: Wholesale inventories (Sept.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Wholesale trade sales rose 2.8% m/m (vs 1.1% expected) after +2.0% in August.
• Wholesale sales ex autos rose by a solid 3.1%.

Germany: Trade Balance (Sept.): 15.6bn EUR vs 19.bn expected (prior: 17.9bn revised from 19.5bn)

• Exports were up 2% m/m (vs 0.5% expected and -0.4% m/m prior month); exports remained sustained to Europe, while they decreased to US and China.
• Imports were stronger, up 4.2% m/m (vs 0.5% expected and 0.6% m/m prior month); imports were robust from all major regions over the month.

Norway: PPI incl. Oil (Oct.): 6.7% m/m (prior: 12.4%)

• The yearly change accelerated from 48.8% y/y prior month to 59.0% y/y, which is the highest level since the end of 2022.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Oct.): 165k vs 70k expected (prior: 60k revised from 29k)

• Payrolls were more sustained than expected and prior months data were revised up: from 29 k to 60 k in Sept., and from 133 k to 186 k in August.
• Unemployment rate has decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%. Participation rate has increased over the month.
• Wage growth has accelerated by 0.4% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month), but yearly trend remained contained, up by 3.1% y/y after 3.2% y/y prior month.
• By sector, payroll shave rebounded in services: 144 k after 51 k prior month; the rebound was driven by business services (from 8 k to 70 k) and education-health (from 21 k to 53 k). In parallel, job creations were still sustained in trade-transport, but slightly below the prior month (22 k after 29 k prior month).
• Payrolls have declined in leisure-hospitality ( -13 k after 13k prior month) and ain public sector (-1 k after -3k).
• Sustained growth and sustained labor: labor is no longer in a "low hiring-low firing" regime.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov.): 51 vs 48 expected (prior: 48)

• Consumers sentiment has improved over the month for both views on current situation (index up to 51 after 46.7 prior month) and expectations (index up to 50.9 after 48.8).
• Opinions have improved on the financial conditions and regained on the business expectations; nevertheless, unemployment has remained a source of worry.
• Consumer forecast interest rates will go higher while gas prices should stabilize.
• Willingness to buy items has regained over the month; it has improved concerning houses but remained stable on autos.
• 12M inflation forecasts have declined from 4.7% y/y prior month to 4.3% y/y and 5-10y inflation expectations decreased from 3.5% to 3.4% y/y.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.7% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.1%)

• Sales have sharply decreased over the month. While auto fuel purchases were up by 1% m/m (in value terms), other sectors have decreased; purchases of goods decreased by 1.2% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month).
• Sales have declined the most over the month in Germany, Spain and France.

Germany: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.7% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 2.0%)

• Industrial activity was more sustained than expected over the month; the rebound was driven by manufacturing sector and capital goods particularly, up by 3% m/m (1.7% m/m prior month). Energy and construction sectors have contracted over the month.

Spain: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.7%)

• The activity was stronger than expected and supported by advances in intermediate, energy and durable consumer goods sectors over the month.

Norway: Industrial production (Sept.): 1.0% m/m (prior: 1.0%)

• Industrial activity was supported by another strong rise in oil production and also the food sector; production has contracted over the month on basic metals, and ship-oil platforms.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Oct.): -44.9 vs -35.5 expected (prior: -35.8)

• Opinions have deteriorated about economic outlook and financial situation; moment on future purchases has declined more than in past March.

US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.31): 189k vs 196k expected (prior: 194k revised from 194k)

• Continuing claims: 1718 k after 1695 k prior week.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q3-26): 3.6% q/q vs 2.7% expected (prior: 2.1% revised from 1.4%)

• Output was up by 3.7% q after 2.4% q in Q2; wages were up by 2.9% q after 4.0%.
• Unit labor costs were down by 0.7% q after 1.9% in Q2.
• The strong activity has generated large productivity gains.

Eurozone: PPI (Sept.): 2.5% m/m as expected (prior: 2.0% revised from 1.9%)

• Prices have rebounded over the month due to strong rise in energy prices, up by 7.8% m/m after 5.6% m/m the prior month. Other sectors have shown limited monthly rises.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 8.3% y/y prior month to 11.1% y/y.

France: Industrial production (Sept.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.3%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
• While total production contracted for a third month, drivers of the fall were different and activity at sector level has become more volatile and contrasted.
• Activity has rebounded for refineries, transport, auto and electronic sectors, while it has declined for pharma and electricity-gas sectors.

Germany: Factory orders (Sept.): 4.4% m/m vs 4.5% expected (prior: -10.1% revised from -10.6%)

• The rebound was driven by consumer goods (14.4% m/m after -6.8% m/m prior month) and also capital goods (5.3% m/m after -14.9% m/m prior month).
• Domestic orders have rebounded the most over the month; for consumer goods, both domestic and foreign orders have rebounded over the month.

UK: BoE has increased its key rates by 25bp to 4.0%.

• The bank mentioned upside risks in inflation and downside risks in activity. Activity was resilient, partly due to benefits from AI. Nevertheless, no second-round effects from energy were identified in prices.
• According to BoE, energy prices could remain high and probably drive headline inflation close to 5% mid-2027. Communication is hawkish and this opens the door to, at least, another possible rate hike.
• Energy prices are volatile and the bank estimated three scenarios (adverse, central and positive scenarios on energy and inflation) pointing to a high inflation in 2027 and a progressive return to target in 2028 in the central case.

Sweden: CPI (Oct.): 0% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Preliminary data pointed to flat inflation and core inflation down by 0.2% m/m over the month; no details by sector were available.
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.5% y/y to 1.1% y/y, and core inflation from 0.5% y/y to 0.1% y/y.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Oct.): 3.1% as expected (prior: 3.1%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month but rate remained stable.

US: ADP Employment change (Oct.): 86k vs 67k expected (prior: 86k revised from 90k)

• Job creation remained stable over the month, after some adjustment in the prior month.
• Creations were more sustained over the month for small and large firms, while they decreased for medium-sized firms.
• Creations were sustained in services (82 k after 56 k the prior month), driven by a rebound in trade-transport sector.

US: Trade balance (Sept.): -105 bn USD vs -107.9 bn expected (prior: -105.7 bn revised from -105.6 bn)

• Trade deficit excluding oil increased to USD 116.4 bn after USD -114.9 bn the prior month.
• Exports were up by 1.9% m/m (1.6% m/m prior month): exports were dynamic for food, capital goods and consumer goods.
• Imports were up by 1.2% m/m (4.4% m/m prior month). Imports were concentrated and strong for capital goods and were also sustained for consumer goods.

US: Services PMI (Oct.): 56.1 vs 57.9 expected (prior: 58.8)

• Final confidence index came below the first estimate and pointed to a decline from the prior month.
• While indicators remained well above the 50 level, all major ones pointed to a decrease in opinions over the month: signals pointed to slower activity, orders and employment while costs and prices paid remained on the rise.

US: ISM Services (Oct.): 54.5 vs 54.8 expected (prior: 54.9)

• Sentiment came lower than the prior month and expectations.
• Details offered a mixed picture; opinions have decreased on activity and new orders but regained on backlog of orders, exports and employment.
• Prices paid have decreased from the prior month, but the index remained at high level.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Oct.): 4.0% y/y as expected (prior: 3.8%)

• Preliminary data pointed to accelerating inflation at renewed high levels.
• Prices were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.6% m/m; energy prices were up by 1.4% m/m (4% m/m, prior month), goods up by 0.6% m/m (2.1% m/m prior month), services up by 0.2% m/m (-0.7% m/m prior month), and food up by 0.4% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m but its yearly trend remained stable at 2.5% y/y.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Oct.): 51.4 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 53)

• Final data have decreased more than initially expected over the month. New orders have decreased, the related index passing below the 50 level at 49.8 after 52.4 prior month.
• Except Italy (index up from 51.7 to 52, with rising new business), other major countries faced declining sentiment; the largest fall was in France, index down from 51.2 to 46.2 (48.4 in first estimate), with falling new orders (44.8 after 49.7 prior month.
• The German index has slightly decreased from 52.9 to 52.5, and new orders were down below 50 (at 49.6 after 52.3); the Spanish index has decreased (from 58.3 to 57.2), but it remained on high level.
• Activity in services has decreased, with a large fall in France; employment has decreased and prices have also declined for the first time since July.

UK: Services PMI (Oct.): 52.8 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Final PMI pointed to a rise from the prior month but at a slower pace than initially estimated.
• Sentiment on new orders has rebounded but less than first estimate (from 50.3 to 52.9).
• Activity was stronger thanks to domestic demand while new exports orders were lower.
• Employment has increased over the month; costs have sharply increased but selling prices have increased at a slower pace due to intense competition.

Sweden: Riksbank has increased key rates by 25 bp to 2.0% as expected

• The door remained open to another rate hike depending on future activity and inflation.
• Financial conditions have tightened but remained accommodative according to the bank.