Synthèse Daily Macro

US: Wholesale inventories (April): 0.5% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.3%)

• Inventories have increased particularly for autos.

US: Chicago PMI (May): 62.7 vs 50.3 expected (prior: 49.2)

• Business sentiment has sharply rebounded over the month; opinions have rebounded on production, new orders, and inventories and time of delivery.
• Prices were also on the rise, while employment has decreased.

France: Consumer spending (April): -0.5% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.7%)

• Spending was down due to a large fall in oil consumption, reflecting higher prices; other sectors were also down over the month, except sales of clothes.

France: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 1.2%)

• Inflation has slowed down over the month in flash estimate; energy prices were still up by 0.8% m/m after 4.7% m/m the prior month. Prices in other sectors were limited: prices of goods up by 0.1% m/m, services flat and food up by 0.4% m/m. fresh food prices were up by 2.6% m/m after 1.0% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 2.8% y/y after 2.5% y/y prior month.

France: GDP (Q1-26): -0.1% q/q vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• GDP growth was revised lower from the first estimate.
• Consumption was down by 0.2%q (0.3% q in Q4-25), due to falling consumption of energy and food, while services were up by 0.2%q and goods up by 0.1% q.
• Public consumption was up by 0.3%q after 0.2%q in Q4-25.
• Capex was down by 0.6% q (0.2% q in Q4-25); the fall was due to construction, but investment has also fallen for public sector and firms’ capex in Q1.
• Net exports were negative while inventories have strongly rebounded in Q1.

Germany: Unemployment rate (May): 6.3% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.4%)

• Unemployed has slightly declined over the month after a rebound the prior month.

Germany: CPI (May): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Prices of energy and food have declined over the month, while package holidays have rebounded.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.9% y/y prior month to 2.7% y/y.

Italy: CPI (May): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.6%)

• Flash estimate pointed to still sustained monthly change in inflation. Rises in energy and services were responsible for the monthly rise.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.8% y/y prior month to 3.3% y/y.

Italy: GDP (Q1-26): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• GDP growth was revised higher than in the first estimate.
• Consumption was up by 0.5%q (0.1% inQ4-25), and capex up by 0.7%q (1.0% q in Q4-25); net trade contribution was more positive over the quarter.

Italy: Unemployment rate (April): 5.1% vs 5.3% expected (prior: 5.2%)

• Unemployed has slightly decreased over the month.

Spain: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Flash estimate pointed to moderate monthly rise in prices; services were up over the month due to transport and package holidays while energy prices still benefited from the cut in VAT (from 21% to 10% until June).
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.5% y/y prior month to 3.6% y/y.

Poland: CPI (May): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Flash estimate pointed to a declining monthly inflation; fuels and food prices have decreased over the month while electricity and gas costs were stable.
• Yearly trend has slightly declined to 3.1% y/y after 3.2% y/y the prior month.

Norway: Unemployment rate (May): 2.1% as expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month but seasonally adjusted data remained stable.

Norway: Retail sales (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Sales have rebounded over the month after contraction seen the prior month.

Sweden: Retail sales (April): 0% m/m (prior: 2.9% revised from 3.1%)

• Sales were on pause after prior month rebound.

Sweden: GDP (Q1-26): -0.2% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.5%)

• GDP contraction in Q1 was driven by falling capex and public consumption (swing s in defense spending), negative trade contribution while consumption was up by 0.6%q.

Switzerland: KOF (May): 98 as expected (prior: 97.8 revised from 97.9)

• Business sentiment has slightly regained form the prior month; the trend is improving since the low seen in March.

US: Initial jobless claims (May 23): 215k vs 211k expected (prior: 210k revised from 209k)

• Continuing claims: 1786 k after 1771 k the prior week.

US: GDP (Q1-26): 1.6% q/q vs 2.0% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• GDP growth was revised lower in the second estimate due to slightly lower consumption and larger fall of inventories over the quarter.
• Consumption was up by 1.4 % q/q (1.6% q/q in first estimate) after 1.9% q/q in Q4: purchases of goods were moderate, up by 0.4% q/q (0.3% in Q4-25) and services up by 1.8% q/q vs 2.4% in first estimate and 2.7% in Q4-25.
• Investment remained sustained: equipment up by 17.2 % q/q (4.3% q/q in Q4-25), R&D up by 11.6% q/q (5.4% q/q in Q4); investment in structure was down by 5.4% q/q after -6.5% q/q in Q4, and residential down by 6.2% q/q after -1.7% q/q in Q4-25.
• Exports and imports have strongly rebounded in Q1, but net exports contribution was negative (-1.25 pp) and inventories have decreased more than in the first estimate and in Q4-25.
• Private domestic demand was slightly revised down to 2.4% q/q from the first estimate of 2.5% and after 1.8% q/q in Q4-25.
• Despite minor revisions to various sectors, US growth remained driven by a strong investment cycle and still consumption which was just below 2% trend.

US: Personal income (April): 0% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.6%)

• Wage growth was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month; disposable income was down by 0.1% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Saving ratio has decreased from 3.2% to 2.6%.

US: Personal spending (April): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.9%)

• Spending remained sustained over the month and prior month was slightly revised up.
• Purchases of goods were up by 0.6% m/m and services up by 0.4% m/m.

US: Core PCE deflator (April): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Yearly trend was up by 3.3% y/y, as expected, after 3.2% y/y the prior month.

US: Durable goods orders (April): 7.9% m/m vs 4.0% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 0.8%)

• Orders were boosted by defense and aircraft orders; orders for capital goods non-defense and ex aircraft (core orders) were down by 1.1% m/m after 3.9% m/m the prior month.
• Orders were sustained for metals and electronic equipment.
• Shipments were up by 0.5% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month) and shipments for core orders were up by 0.4% m/m (1.3% m/m prior month).
• Inventories were up by 0.3% m/m (the same as prior month) and up by 0.2% m/m for core orders.

US: New home sales (April): 622k vs 660k expected (prior: 663k revised from 682k)

• Sales have fallen over the month for all except one district (West district) over 4 districts.
• Inventories have increased over the month, but average prices were up by 0.7% m/m.

France: Producer Prices (April): -2.1% m/m (prior: 1.9% revised from 2.0%)

• Electricity prices have sharply declined while gas prices remained on rising trend. Manufacturing good prices were up by 0.7% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 2.1% y/y after 0% y/y the prior month.

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (May): -8 as expected (prior: -7.7)

• Business sentiment has slightly declined from the prior month.
• Opinions were more negative on past and future production; they were less negative than prior month on new orders, employment and selling prices were slightly lower than prior month; views have improved on inventories.

Eurozone: Services confidence (May): 2.2 vs 0.3 expected (prior: 1.4 revised from 0.9)

• Sentiment on services has rebounded, contrary to latest flash PMI services.
• Views have decreased on current demand but improved with more positive future demand; opinions were also less negative on employment and selling prices were seen slightly lower than prior month.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (May): -19 as expected (prior: -20.6)

• Consumer confidence was less negative than the prior month but remained low.
• Opinions were less negative than prior month on financial conditions, inflation, economic conditions, and major purchases.
• Nevertheless, worries have increased about future unemployment.

Italy: Consumer confidence (May): 93.4 vs 90 expected (prior: 90.8)

• Sentiment has recovered due to improving views on economic and financial situation.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (May): 87.9 vs 87.6 expected (prior: 87.9)

• Sentiment remained stable in the manufacturing, while it weakened in construction and services excluding retail sector.

Spain: Retail sales (real) (April): 0.8% y/y vs 3.6% expected (prior: 4.1%)

• Sales were down by 1.5% m/m (1.2% m/m the prior month); contraction was driven by falling gasoline purchases, but major other sectors have also contracted over the month, except internet sales.

Norway: GDP Mainland (Q1-26): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.4%)

• Q1 GDP came lower than expected and Q4-25 GDP data were revised lower.
• Consumption has contracted by 1.1 %q (1.3%q in Q4-25), driven by falling purchases of autos while services remained on a modest growth trend.
• Capex has decreased by 7.2%q after 5%q in the prior quarter.
• Public consumption was sustained, as seen in Q4-25. Inventories contribution was positive over the quarter while net trade contribution has decreased.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (May): 92.4 (prior: 91.7 revised from 91.5)

• Consumer sentiment has improved on global economy and personal situation.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (May): 100.5 (prior: 100)

• Business sentiment has improved in manufacturing and trade sectors but decreased in construction.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (May): 13 vs 4 expected (prior: 3)

• The business confidence index has rebounded to high level, close to the highs seen in 2021.
• Sentiment has improved on both current conditions and 6M activity.
• Opinions have improved about shipments, new orders, and capex. Prices paid and received have declined from the prior month.

France: Consumer confidence (May): 82 vs 83 expected (prior: 84)

• Consumer confidence has decreased more than expected over the month. The index was back and come closer to the low levels seen in 2022-2023 (index at 80).
• Sentiment has decreased on financial situation and future economy while preference for saving has increased.

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (March): 0.83% y/y vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.92% revised from 0.9%)

• Prices were down by 0.16% m/m after -0.05% m/m the prior month.
• Prices in 10 cities were down on yearly trend while only 4 cities offered prices up above 2% y/y.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (May): 93.1 vs 92 expected (prior: 93.8 revised from 92.8)

• Consumer confidence has eroded from the prior month, but data were revised up.
• Sentiment has decreased on current conditions (index down from 124.4 to 121.2) while expectations have regained (index at 74.4 after 73.4 prior month).
• On current conditions, labor is seen in a fragile stabilization; business conditions have also stabilized from the prior month.
• Willingness to buy has decreased for autos and houses form the prior month, while purchases of big appliances were on the rise from the prior month.
• The 12M inflation expectations remained stable at 6.2%y/y.
• The Conference Board consumer index was better than the declining University of Michigan confidence index; nevertheless, some fragilities exist, notably on labor, while views on future economy come slightly more positive than in the Michigan index.

Spain: PPI (April): 1.7% m/m (prior: 6.2% revised from 6.5%)

• Energy prices were up by 2.4% m/m; upside pressures were also seen over the month on prices of intermediate and manufacturing goods, notably on chemicals.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 8.3% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month.

Poland: Unemployment rate (April): 6% as expected (prior: 6.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.