Synthèse Daily Macro
mardi, juin 23
Early inventory building propped up manufacturing gauges, and services profited from US-Ìran deal
US: Manufacturing PMI (Jun P): 55.7 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 55.1)
- Manufacturing sentiment held its positive momentum, hitting a four‑month high. But the gloss fades on inspection.
- Much of the rise in new orders reflects front‑running, clients stocking up ahead of potential war‑related supply snags and price hikes, rather than underlying demand.
- Longer supplier delivery times, the first sustained lengthening since August 2022, also flattered the PMI. Input‑cost inflation cooled in June, helped by lower energy prices late in the survey period, though output prices remain elevated.
- Employment was a drag: jobs fell at the fastest pace since 2020.
US: Services PMI (Jun P): 51.3 vs 51.1 expected (prior: 50.7)
- Brighter headlines from the Middle East lifted business sentiment in June, but US growth remained subdued. Firms pared staffing amid a murkier outlook and rising overheads, especially dearer raw materials.
- Input-cost inflation ticked up to a six‑month high, and selling prices continued to climb. Taken together, the data point to an economy expanding at roughly a 1% annualized rate in the second quarter.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Jun P): 48.9 vs 48.6 expected (prior: 47.7)
- Services sentiment rebounded more than expected in the June flash, rising to a three‑month high as tourism and leisure firms reported demand recovering from the war’s initial disruptions.
- Price pressures eased, hinting that the recent inflation spike may be peaking: output-price inflation slowed in June, though less sharply than input costs.
- Country-wise, Germany slipped deeper into contraction, falling from 48.1 to 46.8. France beat expectations on a sharper-than-forecast rebound in services, rising from 44.3 to 47.4 but the composite reading remains well below the 50 threshold.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Jun P): 51.3 vs 51.6 expected (prior: 51.6)
- Manufacturers are still riding an inventory boom as customers stock up to hedge against future price rises and wartime supply disruptions. Supply-chain delays remain widespread, keeping price pressures elevated. Even so, anxiety over both supply and inflation is beginning to ease at the margins.
- France surprised on the upside, climbing above the 50 mark and signaling expansion. Germany slipped to 50, pointing to a stall in momentum.
UK: Services PMI (Jun P): 48.7 vs 50.1 expected (prior: 49.3)
- The UK’s private sector shrank, led by a services slump as new orders fell at their fastest pace in 14 months. Backlogs thinned more quickly, and firms trimmed headcount. Softer energy prices, tepid growth and a cooler labour market point to enough slack in demand and wage bargaining to keep inflation from becoming entrenched.
- A disappointing June flash PMI suggests the economy contracted for a second straight month and gives weight to the economists forecasting stagnant UK output in the second quarter of 2026.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Jun P): 53.1 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53.9)
- Manufacturers rode a temporary demand bump as clients stockpiled ahead of expected price rises, lifting output to its fastest pace since September 2024.
- But momentum is fading: growth in new factory orders slipped to a six-month low in June, suggesting the front‑loading boost is petering out.
- Input-cost inflation eased for a second month, yet remains high by historical standards, with price pressures still more intense in manufacturing than in services.
lundi, juin 22
Eurozone consumer confidence rebounded in June
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Jun P): -17.7 vs -18.0 expected (prior: -19.0)
- Consumer confidence slightly rebounded in June in line with lower energy prices. Nevertheless, the metric remains well below its long-term average.
vendredi, juin 19
British shoppers opened their wallets in May
UK: GFK consumer confidence (June): -23 as expected (prior: -23)
- UK consumer confidence remains mired in gloom, weighed down by a sharp rise in energy prices. The headline measure is flat, but the composition is shifting: sentiment among younger adults has slumped, while households’ expectations for the next 12 months have edged higher.
UK: Retail sales (May): 1.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from -1.3%)
- British shoppers opened their wallets in May, while April’s sharp drop in sales was revised less severe, as a burst of hot weather lifted demand for summer staples such as fans and paddling pools.
- The data point to consumers looking through inflation worries for now. Many households appear to be treating higher energy costs as temporary, and smoothing their budgets accordingly, rather than cutting back decisively.
jeudi, juin 18
No surprise from the SNB and the BoE - policy rates kept unchanged
US: Initial jobless claims (June 13): 226k vs 225k expected (prior: 230k revised from 229k)
- The level of unemployment claims remains low.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (June): 10.3 vs 10.0 expected (prior: -0.4)
- Most of the sub-indices increased, including prices paid.
UK: BoE leaves key rate unchanged at 3.75% as expected
- The number of MPC members who dissented in favor of a hike rose from one on 30 April to two today.
- The BoE expects inflation to rise above 3.25% in the final quarter of this year, up from 2.8% in May. It was also marginally more upbeat on growth, estimating the economy is expanding at an underlying rate of 0.2% a quarter, up from 0.1% in its last set of forecasts.
- For most policymakers, a weak labour market (higher unemployment and slower wage growth than a year ago) reduces the chance that a new short-term pick-up in inflation would create long-term difficulties returning to target.
- We expect the policy rate to stay unchanged this year.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (April): 4.9% vs 5.0% expected (prior: 5.0%)
- A drop in the participation rate fully explains the decline in the unemployment rate; this does not indicate a tightening job market. Actually, it should remain quite weak in the coming months.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (April): 4.4% y/y vs 4.0% expected (prior: 4.4% revised from 4.1%)
- This strong growth mainly reflects higher wages in the public sector since the three-month average of pay excluding bonuses in the private sector eased from 3.1% 3m y/y to 2.9%.
Switzerland: SNB leaves rate at 0% as expected
- The central bank has slightly raised its inflation forecasts to 0.6% (from 0.3% in March) for 2026, and to 0.6% next year (from 0.5%), as a result of higher energy prices and rising inflation abroad.
- The SNB growth outlook is unchanged at "around 1%" for 2026, and 1.5% for next year.
- The monetary policy assessment was largely unchanged. The language about FX intervention was slightly modified relative to March by adding "if necessary": "If necessary, the SNB has an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market."
- We expect the policy rate to stay unchanged in 2026, but a hike in December cannot be fully excluded if the CHF weakens along with higher ECB rates.
mercredi, juin 17
Retail sales remain strong in the US
US: Retail sales (May): 0.9% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)
- Sales were strong over the month, boosted by higher gasoline consumption (in value terms), up 3.4% m/m. Sales in several other sectors were also solid, in particular autos, furniture and internet sales.
- Core sales (sales ex food, gasoline, building materials and autos) were up 0.7% m/m after 0.5% m/m in April.
- Consumption is expected to have regained strength in Q2 after modest growth in Q1 (below 2% q/q).
US: Pending home sales (May): 3.8% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 1.4%)
- Despite higher mortgage rates and tight supply, pending home sales increased to a 6-month high in May.
US: Business inventories (April): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.9%)
- This strong increase suggests that inventories could contribute positively to GDP growth in Q2
UK: CPI (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Inflation has moderated over the month thanks to declining energy prices.
- Energy prices were down by 0.5% m/m (3.5% m/m prior month) with fuel prices down by 1.3% m/m (14.5% m/m prior month). Food prices have also declined over the month.
- Services were up by 0.4% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month), mainly due to transport (2.1% m/m after 0.8% m/m) and package holidays. Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend remained stable for headline inflation at 2.8% y/y, up by 2.6% y/y from 2.5% previously on core inflation; services were up by 3.7% y/y after 3.2% y/y.
- Inflation remained contained and transmission to core inflation was limited to the transport sector; these data give more time for the BoE before changing its strategy.
UK: PPI Input prices (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 2.6% revised from 2.4%)
- Fuel prices were up 3.4% m/m after 1.7% m/m in April.
- Yearly increase accelerated to 8.7% y/y, up from 7.9% y/y in the prior month.
UK: PPI Output prices (May): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.4%)
- Core inflation was up 0.8% m/m after 0.9% m/m in April.
- Yearly trend remained quite stable at 4% y/y, compared with 4.1% y/y in the prior month.
- Input and output prices pointed to rising costs, indicating further potential upside risks to inflation and lower margins for corporates.
Eurozone: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 1.0%)
- The final estimate confirmed a moderation in monthly inflation; energy prices were down 1.2% m/m after +3.0% m/m in April. Food prices also declined over the month.
- Goods prices were up 0.2% m/m, while services prices rose by 0.4% m/m after 1.1% m/m in the prior month. Core inflation was up 0.3% m/m after 0.9% m/m.
- Headline inflation increased from 3.0% y/y to 3.2% y/y and core inflation from 2.2% y/y to 2.6% y/y. Services have contributed 1.6 pp to the yearly trend and energy 0.99 pp.
- Over the coming months, the key question will be whether core inflation and services continue to rise, while energy prices may have peaked.