Synthèse Daily Macro

US: Initial jobless claims (June 13): 226k vs 225k expected (prior: 230k revised from 229k)

• The level of unemployment claims remains low.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (June): 10.3 vs 10.0 expected (prior: -0.4)

• Most of the sub-indices increased, including prices paid.

UK: BoE leaves key rate unchanged at 3.75% as expected

• The number of MPC members who dissented in favor of a hike rose from one on 30 April to two today.
• The BoE expects inflation to rise above 3.25% in the final quarter of this year, up from 2.8% in May. It was also marginally more upbeat on growth, estimating the economy is expanding at an underlying rate of 0.2% a quarter, up from 0.1% in its last set of forecasts.
• For most policymakers, a weak labour market (higher unemployment and slower wage growth than a year ago) reduces the chance that a new short-term pick-up in inflation would create long-term difficulties returning to target.
• We expect the policy rate to stay unchanged this year.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (April): 4.9% vs 5.0% expected (prior: 5.0%)

• A drop in the participation rate fully explains the decline in the unemployment rate; this does not indicate a tightening job market. Actually, it should remain quite weak in the coming months.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (April): 4.4% y/y vs 4.0% expected (prior: 4.4% revised from 4.1%)

• This strong growth mainly reflects higher wages in the public sector since the three-month average of pay excluding bonuses in the private sector eased from 3.1% 3m y/y to 2.9%.

Switzerland: SNB leaves rate at 0% as expected

• The central bank has slightly raised its inflation forecasts to 0.6% (from 0.3% in March) for 2026, and to 0.6% next year (from 0.5%), as a result of higher energy prices and rising inflation abroad.
• The SNB growth outlook is unchanged at "around 1%" for 2026, and 1.5% for next year.
• The monetary policy assessment was largely unchanged. The language about FX intervention was slightly modified relative to March by adding "if necessary": "If necessary, the SNB has an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market."
• We expect the policy rate to stay unchanged in 2026, but a hike in December cannot be fully excluded if the CHF weakens along with higher ECB rates.

US: Retail sales (May): 0.9% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

• Sales were strong over the month, boosted by higher gasoline consumption (in value terms), up 3.4% m/m. Sales in several other sectors were also solid, in particular autos, furniture and internet sales.
• Core sales (sales ex food, gasoline, building materials and autos) were up 0.7% m/m after 0.5% m/m in April.
• Consumption is expected to have regained strength in Q2 after modest growth in Q1 (below 2% q/q).

US: Pending home sales (May): 3.8% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 1.4%)

• Despite higher mortgage rates and tight supply, pending home sales increased to a 6-month high in May.

US: Business inventories (April): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.9%)

• This strong increase suggests that inventories could contribute positively to GDP growth in Q2

UK: CPI (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Inflation has moderated over the month thanks to declining energy prices.
• Energy prices were down by 0.5% m/m (3.5% m/m prior month) with fuel prices down by 1.3% m/m (14.5% m/m prior month). Food prices have also declined over the month.
• Services were up by 0.4% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month), mainly due to transport (2.1% m/m after 0.8% m/m) and package holidays. Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend remained stable for headline inflation at 2.8% y/y, up by 2.6% y/y from 2.5% previously on core inflation; services were up by 3.7% y/y after 3.2% y/y.
• Inflation remained contained and transmission to core inflation was limited to the transport sector; these data give more time for the BoE before changing its strategy.

UK: PPI Input prices (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 2.6% revised from 2.4%)

• Fuel prices were up 3.4% m/m after 1.7% m/m in April.
• Yearly increase accelerated to 8.7% y/y, up from 7.9% y/y in the prior month.

UK: PPI Output prices (May): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.4%)

• Core inflation was up 0.8% m/m after 0.9% m/m in April.
• Yearly trend remained quite stable at 4% y/y, compared with 4.1% y/y in the prior month.
• Input and output prices pointed to rising costs, indicating further potential upside risks to inflation and lower margins for corporates.

Eurozone: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 1.0%)

• The final estimate confirmed a moderation in monthly inflation; energy prices were down 1.2% m/m after +3.0% m/m in April. Food prices also declined over the month.
• Goods prices were up 0.2% m/m, while services prices rose by 0.4% m/m after 1.1% m/m in the prior month. Core inflation was up 0.3% m/m after 0.9% m/m.
• Headline inflation increased from 3.0% y/y to 3.2% y/y and core inflation from 2.2% y/y to 2.6% y/y. Services have contributed 1.6 pp to the yearly trend and energy 0.99 pp.
• Over the coming months, the key question will be whether core inflation and services continue to rise, while energy prices may have peaked.

US: Housing starts (May): 1177k vs 1430k expected (prior: 1392k revised from 1465k)

• Housing starts have sharply declined over the month; the move was mainly driven by falling housing starts of multi-family houses, but single-family houses have also decreased. Prior month data were also revised down.
• Building permits have decreased from 1423 k the prior month to 1413 k, with single and multi- family houses both decreasing over the month.
• Activity in housing remained volatile and trend in housing starts has collapsed after some improvement the prior months.

Germany: Zew (June): -81 vs -78 expected (prior: -77.8)

• Business sentiment has deteriorated on current situation over the month.
• On the opposite, expectations have strongly rebounded, index being up to 10.5 from -10.2.
• Opinions have increased, or turned less negative from the prior month, in all sectors except construction.

Italy: CPI (May): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Final data confirmed rising yearly trend and still sustained monthly change.
• Prices of hotels-restaurants were up by 1.6% m/m after 2.1% m/m the prior month, while other prices remained in a 0%-0.2% m/m.
• Yearly trend was up to 3.2% y/y after 2.0% y/y the prior month.

Brazil: Retail sales (April): -0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from 0.3%)

• Broad sales have decreased, and prior month data were revised lower.
• All sectors except food-supermarkets have decreased over the month. Sales were up by 1.4% y/y after 6.5% y/y the prior month.

US: Empire manufacturing (June): 5.7 vs 13.5 expected (prior: 19.6)

• Sentiment has decreased over the month: opinions have decreased on new orders, shipments, delivery time and average workweek; prices paid and received have marginally decreased over the month.
• The 6-month index has also decreased from the prior month on lower prices and also lower capex; otherwise, the 6-month views on new orders, shipments and employment were on the rise.

US: Industrial production (May): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.7%)

• Manufacturing production was flat over the month after 0.7% m/m the prior month.
• Production of equipment goods was up by 0.6% m/m after 1.8% m/m the prior month, but activity in utilities was down by 0.4% m/m and consumer goods also down by 0.5% m/m.
• Besides these changes in sectors, activity was noticeably stronger for autos, computers, defense and space, and on gas over the month.
• While total production was volatile past months, trend was strong in some sectors such as defense and business equipment.

US: NAHB housing market index (June): 35 vs 37 expected (prior: 37)

• Sentiment in housing has decreased over the month after a rebound the prior month; data remained volatile past quarters.
• Opinions have decreased on current sales while views remained constructive on future sales of single-family houses.

Eurozone: Industrial production (April): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)

• Production remained sustained for intermediate goods and has rebounded over the month for consumer goods.
• But activity has declined for energy and equipment sectors.

Germany: Wholesale price (May): -0.6% m/m (prior: 2.0%)

• Prices have declined from 6.3% y/y the prior month to 5.9% y/y.

Poland: CPI (May): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Final data confirmed the decline in monthly inflation; this was due to falling energy and transport prices, clothes and recreation. Prices for restaurants and health were on the rise over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.2% y/y to 3.1% y/y.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (May): 8.8% vs 8.7% expected (prior: 8.5%)

• Unemployed has increased and labor force has also increased in parallel.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (May): -0.4% m/m (prior: 0.8%)

• Prices of imports were down by 0.3% m/m (2.3% m/m prior month) and producer prices were also down by 0.4% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend remained negative at -1.8% y/y after -2.0% y/y prior month.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (May): -38.1 vs -38 expected (prior: -40)

• Consumer sentiment was less depressed over the month; views were less negative on future economy and purchases but more negative about financial situation.

Turkey: Industrial production (April): 3.7% m/m (prior: -0.8%)

• Production has rebounded in the manufacturing sector, up by 4.4% m/m after -1.1% m/m the prior month, but production of electricity was down (-2.8% m/m after 3.8% m/m prior month.)