Market insight

US: Initial jobless claims (June 22): 233k vs 235k expected (prior: 239k revised from 238k)

• Continuing claims: 1839 k after 1821 k the prior week.

US: Durable goods orders (May): 0.1% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.6%)

• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core goods) were down by 0.6% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
• Orders for aircraft were down by 2.8% m/m after -14.6% m/m prior month; orders were negative for all segments except for autos, metals, and computers.
• Shipments were down by 0.3% m/m after 1.2% m/m the prior month; shipments for core goods were also down by 1.5% m/m after 2.1% m/m prior month.
• Inventories were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Despite improving sentiment in latest PMI manufacturing, momentum for durable goods has decreased for the month under review and it has also turned highly volatile the prior months.

US: GDP (Q1-24): 1.4% q/q as expected (prior: 3.4%)

• Final GDP has shown downwards revisions from the 1st estimate (1.6%) to this latest (1.4%).
• Consumption was slightly revised down and has slowed down from Q4 (3.3%) to Q1 at 1.5%; performances in Q1 were mainly driven by services (3.3% after 3.4% in Q4), while goods were sharply down (-2.3% q/q after 3.0% in Q4).
• Investment was globally firmer than in first estimate; it has increased by 4.4% q/q after 0.7% q/q in Q4; main drivers were residential (16% q/q after 2.8%), R&D (7.7% q/q after 4.3%) and it has shown a reversal in equipment (1.6% q/q after -1.1% in Q4).
• Net exports contribution has turned negative in Q1 (-0.65 pp after 0.25 pp in Q4). Public consumption has added 0.31 pp to Q1 quarterly growth after 0.79 pp in Q4.
• Final private sales were up by 2.6% q/q after 3.3% q/q in Q4: this domestic demand remained sustained while other sectors offered various speed and sometimes diverging trend.

US: Pending home sales (May): -2.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -7.7%)

• Sales have declined further over the month; over 4 districts, sales have contracted in 2 districts and regained in the other 2 during the month.
• It seemed higher mortgage rates and prices have constrained the demand.

Eurozone: M3 (May): 1.6% y/y vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1.3%)

• M2 was up by 0.7% y/y after 0.1% y/y the prior month; M1 was down by 4.9% y/y after -5.9% y/y the prior month.
• Credit to private sector was up by 0.6% y/y after 0.7% y/y the prior month.
• Credit to current consumption and to firms (at more than 5 years) remained dynamic (2.8% y/y, 1.7% y/y resp.) while credit to housing and short-term credit to firms were flat and negative over the past months.
• By country, the situation is mixed; credit to corporates (based on change in monthly flows) was firmer in Germany, Italy, and Netherlands, but has contracted in Spain and was slowing down in France. For housing, credit has rebounded in Germany and Netherlands over the past 3 months.

Italy: Consumer confidence (June): 98.3 vs 97 expected (prior: 96.4)

• Consumer confidence has recovered after a pause in April and reached highest levels YTD.
• Opinions have improved on both current and future situation but rebounded the most on expectations.
• Views were significantly more positive about future economy, financial situation, and unemployment.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (June): 86.8 vs 88.6 expected (prior: 88.2 revised from 88.4)

• Contrary to consumer confidence, sentiment in manufacturing remained on a weakening trend with some volatility.
• Opinions have deteriorated on orders and production over the month and reached lowest levels YTD.

Italy: PPI (May): 0.3% m/m (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.5%)

• Yearly trend has regained from -8% y/y the prior month to -4.9% y/y.

Spain: Retail sales (real) (May): 0.2% y/y vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Sales have decreased over the month by 0.6%; all sectors were down over the month except personal goods.

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (June): -10.1 vs -9.6 expected (prior: -9.9)

• Sentiment has slightly weakened over the month. Opinions have decreased on orders and past production but were less negative on exports and employment.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (June): -14 as expected (prior: -14.3)

• Consumer confidence was slightly better than the prior month.
• Opinions have improved on past situation, but the concerns remained about future prices and unemployment.

Eurozone: Service confidence (June): 6.5 vs 6.3 expected (prior: 6.8 revised from 6.5)

• Sentiment has decreased after upward revisions to prior month data.
• Opinions have decreased on current demand, employment (current and future) and have pointed to firmer prices.
• Opinions have both declined in retail and construction sectors.

Norway: Unemployment rate (May): 4.1% vs 4% expected (prior: 4.1%)

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (June): 99.2 vs 98.5 expected (prior: 98.6)

• Business confidence has slightly increased from the prior month; sentiment has improved in private sectors, construction, and retail sectors.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (June): 93.3 (prior: 91.3)

• Consumer confidence has regained further; sentiment has improved on current situation (economy and financial situation) and slightly increased about future economy and purchases.

US: New home sales (May): 619k vs 633k expected (prior: 698k revised from 634k)

• Sales have sharply fallen over the month, after upward revisions to prior month sales.
• Sales have fallen in all over the 4 districts (the largest fall in the Northeast district). Inventories were on the rise.
• Mean prices have increased by 3.2% m/m and by 4.9% y/y; average prices were down by 0.1% m/m and down by 0.9% y/y.
• 29% of total sales were made on houses in the USD 300 k-400 k range and 19% (on the rise over the month) on houses with prices below USD 300k.

France: Consumer confidence (June): 89 as expected (prior: 90)

• Consumer confidence has slightly decreased form the prior month; the survey just partly reflected the surprise linked to snap elections.
• Besides elections, sentiment on standard of living and purchasing power has regularly deteriorated despite slightly less concerns from inflation; preference for saving is on the rise.
• In times of political uncertainties and potentially higher taxes after elections, the preference for saving could be the real winner.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (June): -21.8 vs -19.5 expected (prior: -21 revised from -20.9)

• Consumer confidence has decreased, and prior month data were revised lower.
• If inflation is slightly less a concern, opinions on activity and incomes have deteriorated from the prior month and preference for saving has increased.

Brazil: CPI (June): 0.39% m/m vs 0.44% expected (prior: 0.44%)

• Prices remained sustained for food, housing and healthcare but have decreased for household goods and transport over the month.
• The yearly trend has re-accelerated from 3.70% y/y prior month to 4.06% y/y.

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (April): 7.20% y/y vs 7% expected (prior: 7.46% revised from 7.38%)

• Prices were up by 0.38% m/m after 0.32% m/m the prior month.
• Only 4 cities over total of 20 cities under survey have shown a contraction in prices over the month. 12 cities have shown prices above 5% y/y.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (June): 100.4 vs 100 expected (prior: 101.3 revised from 102)

• Consumer confidence has slightly decreased from the prior month; views on current situation has slightly increased (index up from 140.8 to 141.5), while expectations have decreased (from 74.9 the prior month to 73).
• 12 M inflation expectations have marginally eased (average data) from 5.4% y/y the prior month to 5.3%.
• Views on labour and activity remained positive on the short run; the 6-month views have pointed to a normalisation and stabilization process from current level on activity and labour, as both ratings on improving or decreasing situation have declined over the month.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (June): -10 vs -3 expected (prior: 0)

• Business sentiment has deteriorated over the month, contrary to PMI and other regional business surveys.
• Views on current conditions have deteriorated on orders, shipments, and local activity, while wages were on the rise.
• The 6-month views were more constructive, and the related index has slightly increased form the prior month: on the opposite to current conditions, orders and local business were seen on rebound.
• Prices and costs were on the rise from the prior month.

Spain: GDP (Q1-24): 0.8% q/q vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Last estimate has shown a higher growth than estimated; consumption was up by 0.4% q and net trade was positive, but the strong push came from a large rebounding investment (2.6%q): it was driven by equipment spending and residential over the quarter.
• Spain should continue to lead the eurozone growth in 2024.

Poland: Unemployment rate (May): 5% as expected (prior: 5.1%)

• Unemployed has slightly decreased over the month.

Germany: IFO (June): 88.6 vs 89.6 expected (prior: 89.3)

• Business confidence has decreased over the month as seen in flash PMI manufacturing.
• Sentiment remained weak on current conditions; expectations have decreased over the month, back to April level.
• By sector, sentiment has decreased on manufacturing and trade sectors; it has increased in services and remained weak in the construction sector.
• The path to growth remains fragile for Germany.

Poland: Retail sales (May): -0.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -1.8%)

• Sales were mixed as they have fallen for clothes and household goods, but they were firmer for autos, pharma, and fuels.

Brazil: Current account (May): -3400 M$ vs -3350 M$ expected (prior: -2868 M$ revised from -2516 M$)

• Current account has increased from the prior month, but cumulated 12M deficit remained contained at 1.8% of GDP.
• Separately, foreign direct investment has decreased from USD 3867 M the prior month to USD 3023 M; cumulated data have shown a 2.9% FDP as of GDP.