Synthèse Daily Macro
vendredi, septembre 25
US: rising orders for capital goods, lower consumer confidence (Michigan index)
US: Durable goods orders (Aug.): 0% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1.1%)
- Orders were flat over the month due to falling orders for defense and civil aircraft orders. On the opposite, core orders (orders for capital goods nondefense ex aircraft) were up by 1.6% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month.
- Shipments were down by 0.2% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month) but were up by 0.6% m/m (1.4% m/m prior month) for core orders.
- Inventories were up by 0.5% m/m for both total and core orders.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sept.): 48.1 vs 47.5 expected (prior: 51.7)
- Consumer confidence has decreased from the prior month, but less than expected in the first estimate.
- Views on current conditions have decreased (index at 50.9 after 51.9 prior month), and expectations have also decreased (from 51.5 to 46.3), but less than initially estimated.
- Sentiment has decreased on financial situation, on both current and future economic conditions, and inflation expectations have increased.
- Fears regarding rising unemployment have increased as well as expectations of higher interest rates and gasoline prices.
- Willingness to buy autos and houses have decreased but remained positive on other items.
- 12M inflation expectations have increased from 4% prior month to 4.6% y/y and 5-10Y inflation expectations have increased from 3.3% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.
Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -30.6 vs -27.2 expected (prior: -26.8 revised from -26.6)
- Consumer confidence has deteriorated more than expected over the month. Worries have increased about inflation and net income, while preference for saving has regained.
- The index was back to the level seen past May 2026.
Eurozone: M3 (Aug.): 3.5% y/y as expected (prior: 3.4%)
- M1 growth has slowed down from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.9% y/y as well as M2 growth from 3.3% to 3.2% y/y.
- On the opposite, trend in credit to the private sector has accelerated to 3.6% y/y from 3.4% y/y the prior month.
- Despite rising interest rates, the credit cycle remains sustained.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Sept.): -13 vs -16 expected (prior: -14)
- Consumer confidence was slightly less negative than expected and the prior month.
- Views were less negative about economic situation and even more positive about future personal financial situation.
jeudi, septembre 24
German IFO on the rise again; no change in SNB key rates, but a 25 bp rise to 4.50% in Norway
US: Initial jobless claims (Sept.19): 197k vs 200k expected (prior: 198k revised from 196k)
- Continuing claims: 1719 k after 1717 k prior week.
US: New home sales (Aug.): 684k vs 616k expected (prior: 643k revised from 607k)
- Sales were firmer in the Midwest and South districts while they declined further for Northeast and West districts.
- Inventories have declined over the month.
- Average prices of houses sold have decreased by 9% m/m.
France: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 86 vs 85 expected (prior: 86)
- Consumer confidence remained surprisingly stable.
- Opinions were less negative on economy, unemployment and prices but worries remained on personal financial situation.
- As the economic outlook looks fragile, it is possible to see weakening confidence next months.
France: Business confidence (Sept.): 96 vs 98 expected (prior: 98)
- Confidence in the manufacturing sector remained stable over the month.
- Total confidence has weakened on total orders due to falling domestic orders.
- Prices were on the rise.
- In parallel, confidence has slightly decreased in services and retail sectors.
Germany: IFO (Sept.): 89.9 vs 89 expected (prior: 88.8)
- Business confidence has gained further on current conditions (index from 88.5 prior month to 89.5) and expectations have increased further (index at 90.4 after 89).
- By sector, confidence was less negative over the month for manufacturing, trade and construction, and the index has turned positive for services.
Spain: PPI (Aug.): 2.9% m/m (prior: 3.1% revised from 3%)
- Prices remained on a sustained trend over the month due to further rises in energy, basic metals and electronic equipment.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 9.4% y/y prior month to 13.2% y/y.
Norway: The central bank has increased its key rates by 25 bp to 4.50% as expected.
- The bank mentioned it is necessary to maintain a high level of rates due to inflation and it is prepared to hike gain to bring inflation back to 2%.
Switzerland: The SNB left key rates unchanged at 0%, as expected.
- The bank reiterated its willingness to stay active in the FX market if necessary.
- The bank has revised up its inflation forecasts (0.7% in 2026, 0.8% in 2027 and 2028); upside risks remained due to energy and uncertainties in the Middle East. Inflation is expected to rise further next months and to reach 1.2%y/y in Q4-2026 and in Q1-2027.
- Growth is expected in a 1.5%-2% range in 2026, after strong results seen in H1-26, and to stay around 1.5% in 2027.
- The current monetary policy looks appropriate according to the SNB.
mercredi, septembre 23
PMIs on the rise in US, Eurozone and UK, but prices on the rise too
US: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 57 vs 53.7 expected (prior: 53.9)
- Flash estimate has pointed to a strong rebound in business confidence. The monthly improvement was broad based across major components.
- Sentiment has rebounded on production, new orders, mainly driven by the domestic demand, while export orders have decreased. Employment has also regained.
- Costs have increased, but at a slower pace than in past quarter, but selling prices remained on the rise.
US: Services PMI (Sept.): 58.7 vs 55.8 expected (prior: 56.5)
- Flash estimate pointed to a surge in confidence in services and the index is back to the highest levels seen recently.
- Activity was firmer, with higher new orders, driven by domestic demand and also some improvement on the export side.
- Employment has also strongly increased, while costs remained on the rise.
- Selling prices have increased further rapidly but rising competition has limited the move.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 52.7 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 52.7)
- Flash estimate for business confidence remained stable over the month.
- New orders have slightly increased from the prior month and activity was sustained and broad-based across countries. New export orders have improved.
- Employment remained stable while costs and prices have accelerated further.
- Confidence has slightly decreased for France (from 51.1 prior month to 50.3) and Germany (from 54.3 to 53.8).
Eurozone: Services PMI (Sept.): 53 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 51.6)
- Flash estimate for services has strongly rebounded over the month.
- New business has strongly regained from the prior month, and notably for France (at 50.8 from 47.1) and Germany (from 51.3 to 53.3).
- Activity was strong but exports remained weak. Employment has also increased over the month.
- Costs and prices have sharply increased over the month.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 52 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.7)
- Flash estimate on business confidence has shown further rebound in manufacturing. New business has increased from the prior month and production was firmer thanks to AI and defense sectors. Consumer demand remained weak.
- Employment was lower due to rising operating costs.
- Prices have increased further in parallel with higher costs.
UK: Services PMI (Sept.): 51.7 vs 52 expected (prior: 52.5)
- Flash estimate for services has decreased from the prior month; the loss of momentum has been confirmed by lower new orders (49.5 after 50.7).
- Domestic demand remained subdued, and geopolitics was a concern.
- Exports have decreased, driven by lower demand from EU.
- Employment was on a modest rise, but costs have increased further. Prices have accelerated in parallel with rising costs.
Poland: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 5.8% as expected (prior: 5.8%)
- Unemployed has slightly increased over the month, but the ratio remained stable.
mardi, septembre 22
US Richmond business confidence lower on current conditions
US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Sept.): -2 vs 2 expected (prior: 4)
- Business sentiment has decreased over the month about current conditions.
- Opinions have declined on orders, shipments and current business; the 6-month index has increased further (index from 26 prior month to 33), on higher shipments and stable (at high level) new orders.
- Prices received and paid remained on the rise in the short run.
Poland: Retail sales (Aug.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 2.2%)
- Sales have decreased in real terms, driven lower by falling sales of autos, and pharma products.
- On the opposite, sales were on the rise for fuels, clothes and household goods.
- Yearly trend remained sustained, up by 3.8% y/y (3.9% y/y prior month).
Turkey: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 91.9 (prior: 90.8)
- Consumer confidence has slightly gained over the month; opinions were better oriented on personal finances, global economy and unemployment.
- Views on future purchases have slightly improved over the month.
lundi, septembre 21
Swiss M3 monetary aggregate remained on moderate growth trend
Switzerland: M3 (Aug.): 3.5% y/y (prior: 3.4% revised from 3.3%)
- M1 growth has slowed down from 6.4% y/y the prior month to 6.3%, and M2 from 4.2% to 4.0% y/y.
- Sight deposits continued to increase while time deposits have declined further over the month.
Turkey: Industrial confidence (Sept.): 102.5 (prior: 102.4)
- Business confidence has slightly gained over the month.
- Opinions were more positive on orders, employment and global business; on the opposite, views on exports and capex have decreased from the prior month.