Synthèse Daily Macro

UK: GFK consumer confidence (June): -23 as expected (prior: -23)

• UK consumer confidence remains mired in gloom, weighed down by a sharp rise in energy prices. The headline measure is flat, but the composition is shifting: sentiment among younger adults has slumped, while households’ expectations for the next 12 months have edged higher.

UK: Retail sales (May): 1.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from -1.3%)

• British shoppers opened their wallets in May, while April’s sharp drop in sales was revised less severe, as a burst of hot weather lifted demand for summer staples such as fans and paddling pools.
• The data point to consumers looking through inflation worries for now. Many households appear to be treating higher energy costs as temporary, and smoothing their budgets accordingly, rather than cutting back decisively.

US: Initial jobless claims (June 13): 226k vs 225k expected (prior: 230k revised from 229k)

• The level of unemployment claims remains low.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (June): 10.3 vs 10.0 expected (prior: -0.4)

• Most of the sub-indices increased, including prices paid.

UK: BoE leaves key rate unchanged at 3.75% as expected

• The number of MPC members who dissented in favor of a hike rose from one on 30 April to two today.
• The BoE expects inflation to rise above 3.25% in the final quarter of this year, up from 2.8% in May. It was also marginally more upbeat on growth, estimating the economy is expanding at an underlying rate of 0.2% a quarter, up from 0.1% in its last set of forecasts.
• For most policymakers, a weak labour market (higher unemployment and slower wage growth than a year ago) reduces the chance that a new short-term pick-up in inflation would create long-term difficulties returning to target.
• We expect the policy rate to stay unchanged this year.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (April): 4.9% vs 5.0% expected (prior: 5.0%)

• A drop in the participation rate fully explains the decline in the unemployment rate; this does not indicate a tightening job market. Actually, it should remain quite weak in the coming months.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (April): 4.4% y/y vs 4.0% expected (prior: 4.4% revised from 4.1%)

• This strong growth mainly reflects higher wages in the public sector since the three-month average of pay excluding bonuses in the private sector eased from 3.1% 3m y/y to 2.9%.

Switzerland: SNB leaves rate at 0% as expected

• The central bank has slightly raised its inflation forecasts to 0.6% (from 0.3% in March) for 2026, and to 0.6% next year (from 0.5%), as a result of higher energy prices and rising inflation abroad.
• The SNB growth outlook is unchanged at "around 1%" for 2026, and 1.5% for next year.
• The monetary policy assessment was largely unchanged. The language about FX intervention was slightly modified relative to March by adding "if necessary": "If necessary, the SNB has an increased willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market."
• We expect the policy rate to stay unchanged in 2026, but a hike in December cannot be fully excluded if the CHF weakens along with higher ECB rates.

US: Retail sales (May): 0.9% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

• Sales were strong over the month, boosted by higher gasoline consumption (in value terms), up 3.4% m/m. Sales in several other sectors were also solid, in particular autos, furniture and internet sales.
• Core sales (sales ex food, gasoline, building materials and autos) were up 0.7% m/m after 0.5% m/m in April.
• Consumption is expected to have regained strength in Q2 after modest growth in Q1 (below 2% q/q).

US: Pending home sales (May): 3.8% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 1.4%)

• Despite higher mortgage rates and tight supply, pending home sales increased to a 6-month high in May.

US: Business inventories (April): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.9%)

• This strong increase suggests that inventories could contribute positively to GDP growth in Q2

UK: CPI (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Inflation has moderated over the month thanks to declining energy prices.
• Energy prices were down by 0.5% m/m (3.5% m/m prior month) with fuel prices down by 1.3% m/m (14.5% m/m prior month). Food prices have also declined over the month.
• Services were up by 0.4% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month), mainly due to transport (2.1% m/m after 0.8% m/m) and package holidays. Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend remained stable for headline inflation at 2.8% y/y, up by 2.6% y/y from 2.5% previously on core inflation; services were up by 3.7% y/y after 3.2% y/y.
• Inflation remained contained and transmission to core inflation was limited to the transport sector; these data give more time for the BoE before changing its strategy.

UK: PPI Input prices (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 2.6% revised from 2.4%)

• Fuel prices were up 3.4% m/m after 1.7% m/m in April.
• Yearly increase accelerated to 8.7% y/y, up from 7.9% y/y in the prior month.

UK: PPI Output prices (May): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.4%)

• Core inflation was up 0.8% m/m after 0.9% m/m in April.
• Yearly trend remained quite stable at 4% y/y, compared with 4.1% y/y in the prior month.
• Input and output prices pointed to rising costs, indicating further potential upside risks to inflation and lower margins for corporates.

Eurozone: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 1.0%)

• The final estimate confirmed a moderation in monthly inflation; energy prices were down 1.2% m/m after +3.0% m/m in April. Food prices also declined over the month.
• Goods prices were up 0.2% m/m, while services prices rose by 0.4% m/m after 1.1% m/m in the prior month. Core inflation was up 0.3% m/m after 0.9% m/m.
• Headline inflation increased from 3.0% y/y to 3.2% y/y and core inflation from 2.2% y/y to 2.6% y/y. Services have contributed 1.6 pp to the yearly trend and energy 0.99 pp.
• Over the coming months, the key question will be whether core inflation and services continue to rise, while energy prices may have peaked.

US: Housing starts (May): 1177k vs 1430k expected (prior: 1392k revised from 1465k)

• Housing starts have sharply declined over the month; the move was mainly driven by falling housing starts of multi-family houses, but single-family houses have also decreased. Prior month data were also revised down.
• Building permits have decreased from 1423 k the prior month to 1413 k, with single and multi- family houses both decreasing over the month.
• Activity in housing remained volatile and trend in housing starts has collapsed after some improvement the prior months.

Germany: Zew (June): -81 vs -78 expected (prior: -77.8)

• Business sentiment has deteriorated on current situation over the month.
• On the opposite, expectations have strongly rebounded, index being up to 10.5 from -10.2.
• Opinions have increased, or turned less negative from the prior month, in all sectors except construction.

Italy: CPI (May): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Final data confirmed rising yearly trend and still sustained monthly change.
• Prices of hotels-restaurants were up by 1.6% m/m after 2.1% m/m the prior month, while other prices remained in a 0%-0.2% m/m.
• Yearly trend was up to 3.2% y/y after 2.0% y/y the prior month.

Brazil: Retail sales (April): -0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from 0.3%)

• Broad sales have decreased, and prior month data were revised lower.
• All sectors except food-supermarkets have decreased over the month. Sales were up by 1.4% y/y after 6.5% y/y the prior month.