Synthèse Daily Macro
mardi, février 17
UK labor and wage growth on a downward trend
US: NY Empire manufacturing (Feb.): 7.1 vs 6.2 expected (prior: 7.7)
- Business sentiment has decreased but less than expected from the prior month.
- Sentiment has decreased on new orders and shipments after their rebound the prior month. On the opposite, sentiment remained on the rise on employment and on inventories.
- In parallel, time of delivery has increased as well as prices received and paid.
- Despite a highly volatile index, underlying trend remained positive over medium-term.
US: NAHB housing market index (Feb.): 36 vs 38 expected (prior: 37)
- Sentiment in housing has decreased further from Dec.; opinions have declined on future sales and new demand.
Germany: CPI (Jan.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)
- Final data confirmed initial monthly fall in inflation. The picture remained mixed at sector level: higher inflation over the month for food, petrol and education while prices have declined for clothes, leisure and household energy.
- The yearly trend has reaccelerated from 1.8% y/y prior month to 2.1% y/y.
Germany: Zew (Feb.): 58.3 vs 65.2 expected (prior: 59.6)
- Contrary to consensus, expectations have decreased over the month.
- Sentiment on current situation was less negative over the month, but expectations have decreased; despite this decrease, the index remained above the levels seen in 2025.
- By sector, confidence has decreased over the month on finance, autos and IT sectors, while sentiment has increased for steel, chemicals and electronic goods.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Dec.): 5.2% vs 5.1% expected (prior: 5.1%)
- Claimant count (Jan.) up to 4.4% from 4.3% prior month. Jobless claims have increased from 2.7k to 28.6 k.
- Long-term unemployed has increased over the month.
- 3-M employment has decreased from 82 k the prior 3-M period to 52 k. Over the 3-M period, full-time workers have decreased while part-time and temporary workers have increased.
- Labor remained fragile and on downward trend.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Dec.): 4.2% y/y vs 4.6% expected (prior: 4.6% revised from 4.7%)
- Average wage growth has continued to moderate. Wage growth in services has slowed down from 4.7% the prior month to 4.2% y/y, which should please the BoE and validates a next rate cut.
- Across sectors, wage growth was firmer in manufacturing (4.4% y/y after 4.1% y/y) and in retail-hotels up by 5.5% y/y after 5.4% y/y.
lundi, février 16
A still volatile trend in eurozone industrial production
Eurozone: Industrial production (Dec.): -1.4% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.7%)
- Production has reversed after a rebound the prior month (data revised down).
- All sectors were under contraction except durable consumer goods over the month. Activity has reversed for capital goods, after a strong rebound at year-end.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 8% vs 8.7% expected (prior: 8.8%)
- In non-seasonally data, the unemployment ratio has increased from 8.3 % to 8.6%, contrary to seasonally adjusted data; total unemployed has increased over the month.
vendredi, février 13
US core inflation down to the lowest level since 2021
US: CPI (Jan.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- CPI y/y: 2.4% vs 2.5% expected (prior: 2.7%)
- Core CPI: 2.5% as expected (prior: 2.6%)
- The 1.5% m/m decline in energy costs (-0.1% y/y) contributed to the slowdown in headline inflation to the weakest level since last May (2.4%). Gasoline price is down -7.5% y/y but electricity prices are up 6.3%.
- Core inflation fell to the lowest level since 2021, but services prices excluding energy (like airfares and auto rentals) rose 0.4% m/m despite only a 0.2% gain in owners' equivalent rent, which is notably lower than what have been seen for most of the past several years.
- This release adds to evidence that firms are still absorbing a large part of the tariff costs and slightly raises odds that the Fed will implement three rate cuts this year.
Switzerland: CPI (Jan.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 0.0%)
- CPI y/y: 0.1% as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Core CPI y/y: 0.5% as expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Both headline and core inflation remained unchanged in January.
- Energy inflation rose 1pp to -4.3% y/y, driven by base effects and food and goods inflation rose by 0.4pp to -0.4% y/y and -1.3% y/y, respectively. However, this was offset by a 0.3pp decline in services inflation to 0.9%.
- Imported inflation rose slightly by 0.1pp to -1.5%, but given the recent strengthening of the CHF, the risk to inflation appears clearly to the downside in the coming months.
- Despite the strong CHF, we expect the SNB to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 0.0% this year.
jeudi, février 12
Falling US existing home sales; weak Q4 GDP growth in the UK
US: Initial jobless claims (Feb. 7): 227k vs 223k expected (prior: 232k revised from 231k)
- Continuing claims: 1862 k after 1841 k prior week.
US: Existing home sales (Jan.): 3.91M vs 4.15M expected (prior: 4.27M revised from 4.35M)
- All sales were down over the month; sales of single-family houses were down by 9% m/m (from 3.88 M prior month to 3.53 M). Inventories were on the rise over the month.
- Prices were up by only 0.9% y/y and up by 0.6% y/y for the prices of single-family houses.
Poland: GDP (Q4-25): 1% q/q vs 1.4% expected (prior: 0.9%)
- First estimate of Q4 GDP growth came higher than in Q3, but below expectations.
UK: GDP (Q4-25): 0.1% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- GDP growth remained limited at year-end. Consumption was up by 0.2%q, public consumption up by 0.4%, but capex was sharply down (-2.7%q, equipment and housing down).
- Net inventories were down, and net trade has contributed negatively to growth.
UK: Industrial production (Dec.): -0.9% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.1%)
- Manufacturing production was down by 0.5% m/m (1.9% m/m prior month); only intermediate and durable consumer goods production was up over the month.
- Separately, activity in services was up by 0.3% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month) and construction down (-0.5% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month). Proxy for monthly GDP was just up by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month).
mercredi, février 11
US non-farm payrolls: stronger than expected, but centered in the education-health sector
US: Non-farm payrolls (Jan.): 130k vs 35k expected (prior: 48k revised from 50k)
- Unemployment ratio has declined from 4.4% prior month to 4.3%.
- Labor date came stronger than expected but job creations were in fact concentrated in one sector: private Education- health up by 137 k after 53 k the prior month.
- Job creations were firmer in construction (33 k after -4 K, probably related to weather effects), and in manufacturing up by 5 k after -8 k the prior month.
- Services were up by 136 k after 76 k the prior month. Job creations were limited in business services (34 k after 15 k) and were negative for trade-transport, finance, communication and public sectors. As mentioned, creations were centered into private education-health, a generally non-cyclical sector.
- Wages were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month and up by 3.7% y/y (3.8% y/y prior month).
- All measures of unemployment ratio were slightly down over the month.
- 2025 employment data were also sharply revised down by 862 k.
- ADP and Jolts data are not in line with non-farm payrolls, which pointed to one sector - education-health, driving the monthly job creations: real trend in labor remained unclear despite the positive surprises seen in payrolls.
Italy: Industrial production (Dec.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.5%)
- Industrial activity has contracted for intermediate and durable consumer goods over the month, while production was higher in the energy sector.