News

Earlier in August, global equity markets tumbled due to disappointing US macro data and the unwinding of the Yen carry trade. However, as we expect elevated market volatility until the US Presidential election in November, it may be premature to consider buying the dip.

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump, Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race, and the rise of Kamala Harris: unexpected twists have emerged in the US presidential election.

Equity markets rallied during the first half of the year, driven by earnings growth, a macro backdrop that was more resilient than expected, and continued appetite for AI winners (the “Magnificent 7”). Looking ahead, we anticipate a broadening of equity markets’ leadership. Read more about our insights in the July edition of UBP’s House View.

Our experts examine the tumultuous US election landscape and historical market behaviour during election years, as well as anticipate the fiscal challenges awaiting the next president amidst record-high US federal debt levels.

Les produits structurés ont fortement évolué, notamment grâce à l’essor des réglementations, après avoir longtemps fait l’objet d’un certain scepticisme de la part des investisseurs. Ces instruments restent aujourd’hui encore réservés à un nombre très (trop) limité de clients, mais l’engouement à leur égard devrait toutefois aller crescendo dans les stratégies d’allocation d’actifs.

Against a higher-for-longer interest rate landscape and limited potential for spread compression, fixed income returns will mainly derive from carry.

Eased ECB policies will boost Europe's recovery. As US growth normalises, developed market economies should converge in the second half of the year, while recent regional market rallies have reinforced our confidence in the UK and Switzerland.

US national government debt-to-GDP reached 120% in 2023, recapturing the level seen following years of wartime spending in 1945.

In light of the extended duration of high interest rates, we’re employing a carry strategy, ramping up our allocation to high-yield bonds.

Strong Q1 economic data from the US manufacturing, housing and employment sectors, combined with inflation of between 3.5–4% since mid-2023, have caused markets not to only price out the six rate cuts they had priced in up until the start of 2024, but, more recently, to also begin to question whether the Fed might forego rate cuts entirely in 2024.

The unexpected interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank marks the beginning of a new cycle of global easing, paving the way for new investment opportunities in the broader market. This has bolstered the Bank’s confidence in the Swiss and UK markets, which have been lagging behind the US indices. In addition, we have locked in gains on gold, which was the top performer in March.