US: CPI (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Inflation has come just slightly lower than expected over the month; core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.
- Energy prices were up by 1.1% m/m as seen the prior month (higher gasoline prices); food was flat over the month and prices of goods remained in contraction (down by 0.1% m/m after -0.2% m/m); within this sector, prices for furniture and cars were down but prices of apparels remained on sustained monthly rise.
- Services were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month; shelter remained on stable trend (0.4% m/m), while modest easing in month-to-month change was seen for medical care (from 0.6% m/m to 0.4% m/m), transport services (from 1.5% m/m to 0.9% m/m); on the opposite, recreation (0.3% m/m) and other personal services (1.1% m/m) have accelerated.
- Yearly trend has declined from 3.8% y/y prior month to 3.6% y/y and from 3.5% to 3.4% y/y for core inflation.
- Inflation remained above 3% y/y and services continue to drive the trend; nevertheless, monthly changes in services have moderated from the prior month; more of decline/moderation in services is needed for the Fed to rebuild high confidence on disinflation trend.
US: NY Empire manufacturing (May): -15.6 vs -10 expected (prior: -14.3)
- Both sentiment on current situation and the 6-month index have decreased over the month.
- Opinions have decreased on new orders, employment, and prices, while those on shipments have slightly regained.
US: Retail sales (April): 0% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)
- Core sales (ex-building materials, autos, food, and energy) were down by 0.3% m/m after 1% m/m.
- Sales were down for autos (main negative contribution to the monthly fall), and for furniture and sport.
- Sales were on positive trend over the past month for gasoline and building materials and have rebounded over the month on electronics and clothes.
- Moderation in sales may fuel the idea the economy is not overheating; nevertheless, sales reflect weak momentum in purchases of goods, while demand may remain sustained in services (not included in these monthly sales data).
US: Business inventories (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)
- Inventories were down for wholesalers but on the rise for retailers and manufacturing sectors; the trend remained on the rise for the auto sector, and it has also increased for general merchandise.
- Total sales have increased, and the inventory-to-sales ratio remained globally stable.
US: NAHB housing market index (May): 45 vs 50 expected (prior: 51)
- Sentiment has turned abruptly negative on all components of housing demand due to the rise seen past months on mortgage rates.
- The index was back to its Jan. level.
Eurozone: Industrial production (March): 0.6% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.8%)
- Production has rebounded more than consensus was expecting during the month.
- Nevertheless, the rebound was centred on capital goods, while other sectors have contracted, particularly energy and consumer goods.
- Irish production remained highly volatile and was up by 12% m/m, while industrial activity was down in the 4 major countries of the area.
France: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Monthly changes remained sustained and in line with first estimates. Prices of clothes, oil, and services (transport) were firmer over the month.
- Yearly trend remained stable at 2.4% y/y.
Poland: CPI (April): 1.1% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Prices have accelerated over the month, due to several sectors; prices were firmer for food, clothes, transport-fuel, and services to tourism.
- Yearly trend has re-accelerated to 2.4% y/y from 2.0% y/y the prior month.
Poland: GDP (Q1-24): 0.4% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)
- GDP has rebounded after a contraction in Q4-23; no details by sector were available but services have probably driven the Q1 rebound, while other sectors were weak.
Sweden: CPI (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Prices have regained over the month for clothes, health, and restaurants-hotels.
- Yearly trend has regained from 2.2% y/y the prior month to 2.3% y/y; core inflation remained stable at 2.9%y/y.