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Insight 09.05.2018

Green shoots of change seen in Japan

Understanding Japan’s dynamics sometimes seems like a mathematical problem. Is getting you head around this market just like solving a differential equation? It’s not that simple. Just as for many fields of mathematics, the time you spend on it is important.
Insight 09.05.2018

Navigating the coming ‘mini-cycle’ in the US Economy

Spotlight - Recession concerns appear overblown, though we do expect a ‘mini-cycle’ in the US economy in the months ahead.

Insight 02.05.2018

How emerging markets are dealing with higher US Treasury yields

The recent rise, through 3%, and to the highest level since 2013, has triggered a bit of a sell-off in emerging market assets. We’re thinking that US Treasury yields from here stabilise or they rise only gradually, and this’ll allow emerging market asset prices to go up again.

Insight 27.04.2018

Is global growth peaking?

Confidence has returned to the markets and the beginning of the earnings season looks great, with several positive surprises. The IMF has presented its outlooks for 2018 and 2019 and they seem very upbeat: world growth is expected to come in at 3.9%.

Insight 25.04.2018

Spotlight - Energy sector: outperformance lies ahead

Having ended 2017 as one of the worst performing global sectors, sustained outperformance lies ahead for energy stocks in 2018. The underlying crude oil market is now undersupplied while inventory levels have fallen sharply. These supply-demand and inventory dynamics have historically translated into improving corporate profitability over the coming 12-24 months.

Insight 17.04.2018

Value creation through responsible investment

UBP continues on its way to enhanced ESG investment standards
Insight 16.04.2018

Sustainable EM corporate debt

A new asset class for responsible investors
Insight 11.04.2018

Investing late in the economic cycle

A market context favourable to convertible bonds


Insight 28.03.2018

Japanese equities: good opportunities, particularly in the small-cap segment

The sudden spike in US long-term interest rates set off a more volatile environment for global equity markets. This, combined with a strengthening yen, resulted in a continuing bearish tone in the Japanese market.
Insight 19.03.2018

Rising fears of protectionism

Protectionism: a tax on growth

Insight 15.03.2018

Political uncertainty weighs on the yellow metal

Gold retreated earlier in March as trade and geopolitical tensions seemed to abate following President Trump’s announcement.

Insight 13.03.2018

Spotlight: Tariffs, a regime change in progress

Though markets breathed a sigh of relief following the announcement of US tariffs, investors should regard them as a transition to the next stage of the Trump presidency using the UBP ‘Start-Stop’ Framework. Continued US dollar weakness and a more sustained rise in volatility should characterise the next phase of the Trump administration. Capital protected and hedge fund strategies should help cushion portfolios looking ahead.

Insight 27.02.2018

Five questions from the road

The high volatility of recent weeks likely represents a regime shift from the low volatility environment of 2017. For bond-focused investors, it means continued diversification away from not only interest rate risk but increasingly, seeking alternative drivers to ongoing narrowing of spreads. For equity investors, high volatility brings opportunities in conservatively structured products while capitalising upon the still strong earnings growth around the world.

Insight 22.02.2018

Strong fundamentals to help overcome recent market volatility

Since the beginning of the year, investors’ concerns over a return of inflation have come back to the fore and triggered a sharp sell-off in US Treasury bonds. Investors were initially unfazed, as this move reflected solid US growth prospects.

Insight 21.02.2018

Asian markets welcome the Year of the Dog

From the Desk of a Fund Manager (February 2018): New Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s first day on the job saw him take up the post following an unexpected pick-up in US wage data in January.

Insight 20.02.2018

The reasons behind the oil price correction

WTI oil prices are flat year-to-date after having seen the best start to a year in over a decade and reaching a 3-year high of USD 66.5 in mid-January.