Newsroom

Despite heightening military confrontation between the United States and Iran, China equities enjoyed a solid start in the new year.

Podcast - We see a more helpful economic climate for EM, at least going into the early part of the year, with some signs of growth stabilisation and less pressure on exports.

After a global slowdown in 2019, UBP expects world growth to stabilise on a moderate trend in 2020 (up 2.4% vs. 2.3% in 2019).

Spotlight - It is too early for either China or the United States to claim victory following the ‘Phase 1’ agreement announced last week.

Spotlight - The emergence of economic ‘green shoots’ suggests the US ‘mini-cycle’ slowdown is nearing its end. However, investors should recall that the previous mini-cycles in the post-crisis period have each involved a credit event.

Spotlight - Though investor anxiety given the strong rally YTD in global equities is understandable, historically, strong January-October returns have been followed by gains averaging 4.8% in November-December.

Last week’s release of the third quarter 2019 (3Q19) GDP confirmed the combined shock to Hong Kong’s economy induced by the protracted domestic protests and lingering Sino-US trade war uncertainty.

Podcast - In terms of social dynamics, politics, and economics, the situation in Lebanon is worsening.

The Chinese economy, in its current stage, is fine with steady growth deceleration. This is despite protracted external headwind arising from the on-going trade war which has continued to curb investment appetite and spurred financial market volatility.

On October 11, China and the US have agreed to work towards a partial trade deal. US President Donald Trump called it ‘Phase One’, with subsequent phases to deal with broader and fundamental issues.

Secular trends encompass thematic opportunities with the potential to have a material effect on the world and financial landscapes with long-term and lasting effects.

Podcast - Last week, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson sent the EU the UK government’s alternative proposals to replace the Irish border backstop clause in the EU–UK withdrawal agreement.

The market’s expectations of a mini-trade deal between the Unites States (US) and China in October was spoiled by the spectre of US President Donald Trump’s financial warfare on China.

Government bond yields have rallied significantly this year in anticipation of monetary easing from major central banks, including the ECB and Fed who both delivered this past month.